Initial jobless claims measure the number of people who file for unemployment for the first time in a given week. In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.
Initial Unemployment Claims: Not Seasonally Adjusted
The headline unemployment insurance data—and the charts above—are seasonally adjusted. But what does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? The chart below highlights its extreme volatility, as shown by the green dots. The four-week moving average helps reveal the recurring seasonal patterns, such as the regular spikes in January.
Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data (red line), which we are currently below.
Continuing Unemployment Claims
Continuing unemployment claims are the number of people who have already filed for unemployment and have continued to claims benefits for a subsequent week. Unlike initial unemployment claims, continuing claims are not considered a leading economic indicator and are a less important measure of economic health. Additionally, data for continuing claims has a one-week lag compared to initial claims. In the week ending February 22nd, continuing jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 1,897,000. This represents an increase of 42,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 1,880,000 forecast.
Here is the data series dating back to 1967.
Once again, here is a zoomed in view so that the COVID-spike is not as prominent. And lastly, here is a chart starting in 2022 to see the more recent trends in continuing claims.
