The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
The strengths of the U.S. economy are likely to endure.
Few leading men of the 1960s and 1970s were more dashing than Clint Eastwood. He played a series of gritty heroes, trying to do right in a world gone wrong.
The signal of announcing trade pacts is an important start.
Tariff talk has been at a fever pitch for the past three months. Its dominance of the news cycle has crowded out discussion of other important economic issues, such as the sustainability of America’s national debt.
In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
President Trump has been a vocal admirer of China’s Great Wall, built by the country’s emperors to protect their territory from outside aggression. In his first term, he compared his plan to build a border wall with that historic structure.
A divide has recently developed between soft and hard economic data. At a time when conditions are changing rapidly, understanding the difference between the two is terribly important.
The deferral of “reciprocal” tariffs on most U.S. trading partners suggests that the peak of tariff uncertainty may have passed.
The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.
We call upon an expert for the latest on foreign exchange markets.
We’ve written quite a bit on tariffs already this year, and appropriately so. Developments on this front have been significant and are of global consequence.
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Eggs add to perceptions of high inflation.
At this time of year, those of us who live in the Northern hemisphere are looking forward to a change of season. Statistically, every February week in Chicago should see the daily high temperature rise by 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit, but conditions can vary significantly from expectations.
An escalation seems more likely than diffusion in the U.S.-China trade battle.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Last weekend, the Cathedral of Notre Dame reopened after being severely damaged in a fire five years ago. It took thousands of craftsmen and a reported €840 million to restore the iconic structure.
Not everyone is ready to give thanks for moderating food prices.
New ideas are never as easy as they sound in campaigns.
Lost in the excitement of election week was a meeting of the Federal Reserve. At its conclusion, interest rates were lowered by another quarter-point. But where they are heading from here is a matter of increasing uncertainty.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.
The people have spoken. While there are still some unknowns, the contours of the American government that will be seated next January are reasonably clear.
Enthusiasm for structural reforms is only going to wane.
An independent central bank supports better economic and market outcomes.
Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Fiscal responsibility is not a priority in this election.
The Northern Trust Economics team reacts to the Fed's decision and shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment and inflation.
How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?
Labor shortfalls will become the norm in advanced economies.
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.
I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.
Analysts periodically construct elegant algorithms that produce interesting conclusions, only to learn that the underlying information is flawed.
The Federal Reserve is in the pilot’s seat as the American economy approaches a soft landing. The runway is in sight, but some careful maneuvering will still be needed.
