The Emerging Markets (EM) asset class is often labelled a commodity play for investment purposes. The argument is simple and directional; EM countries export commodities, so rising commodity prices are good for the asset class, whereas falling commodity prices hurt EM countries.

Noise levels are likely to remain elevated in the run-up to – and possibly in the immediate aftermath of the upcoming US presidential election, but the post-election outlook should prove positive for EM assets by ushering in a period of more positive risk-sentiment, a long period of low US rates and a lower Dollar.

Welcome to the 9th annual review of the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income asset class. Using new data from the Bank of International Settlements and other sources, we establish that the EM bond market has expanded by 12% in Dollar terms in the past twelve months to a size of USD 29.6trn, or 25% of the global fixed income universe as of the end of 2019.

Does 9 times higher yield in EM than in US bonds make for an attractive investment proposition? We lay out the arguments. 

The common characterization of US-China relations as a new Cold War is wrong. Instead, the most recent spike in tensions between the two countries – the second time this has happened since US President Donald Trump took office in 2016 – is primarily motivated by political considerations ahead of the November US presidential election.

As of 27 April 2020, eighteen times more people have died from coronavirus per million of the population in developed countries (DMs) than in Emerging Markets (EM). This is partly due to measurement problems, but there may also be genuine structural reasons for expecting slower spread, less overall incidence, and lower mortality rates in EM countries than in DMs.

The VIX index has spiked. Over more than twenty years, VIX spikes have been excellent guides to when to put money to work in EM fixed income and equities. Investors have, on average, generated 262bps of excess return in EM fixed income and 234bps of excess return in EM equities by putting money to work during VIX spikes relative to a ‘timing agnostic’ investment strategy.

Quantitative Easing (QE) policies in developed countries triggered a flight from yield in EM as investors pursued capital gains in developed markets instead. As the capital gains in developed markets fade and with yield nowhere to be found, a search for yield in EM has finally begun.

Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in absolute terms and relative to bonds in developed markets as well as under-owned and well-supported by an improving fundamental backdrop.

Global growth is decelerating. Policy-makers in developed economies are gearing up for yet more fiscal spending. While fiscal spending may support growth for a short time, and for longer if very carefully applied, it will not change the growth outlook fundamentally.

Welcome to the 8th annual review of the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income asset class. Using new data from Bank of International Settlements and other sources, we establish that the EM bond market had grown to a size of USD 26.5trn, or 23% of global fixed income at the end of 2018.

The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century. Many investors still fear local markets due to FX volatility, but EM local bonds have performed better overall than US Treasuries and US stocks.

The case for Emerging Markets external debt is solid. The long-term risk-reward has been and remains compelling. The outlook over the medium-term also favours the asset class as the unwinding of distortions in global bond markets attributable to Quantitative Easing strongly favour EM over developed markets.

Demand stimulus has been in fashion in developed countries since the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Monetary policy in particular has been popular with zero interest rate policies and Quantitative Easing (QE) forming the backbone of macroeconomic policies in the UK, Japan, Europe and the United States. This may now be changing.

IMF recently lowered its growth rate forecast for the global economy. We expect growth to command a premium as it becomes scarcer, while growth laggards will be penalised. It is therefore important to unpack IMF’s global growth forecast to determine who is growing and who is slowing.

EM fixed income should deliver compounded returns ranging from 30% and 60% in Dollar terms over the 2019-2023 investment horizon as markets revert to unwinding the so-called ‘QE trades’ after a temporary US election related interruption in 2018. As for 2019 returns, they may be marginally stronger than the five-year average due to the pullback in 2018.