The S&P 500 posted four straight days of gains this week, its longest winning streak since January. 

The yield on the 10-year note ended April 25, 2025 at 4.29%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.74% and the 30-year note ended at 4.74%.

Consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April as ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation worries continue to drag down consumer attitudes. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 52.2 in April, one of the lowest levels on record.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity declined modestly in April, with the composite index at -4. This marks the 20th consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 10 in March to 6 in April.

Existing home sales sank in March with their largest monthly decline since 2022. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 5.9% from February, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units in March.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $315.73B in March. This represents a 9.2% increase from the previous month and a 11.9% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 2.1% monthly growth.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.03 in March from +0.24 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March.

In the week ending April 19th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 222,000. This represents an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was consistent with the forecast.

Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through March. The latest debt level is at $880.316 billion, down 4.3% from February. This is the second straight month the debt level has declined and is the largest monthly drop since October 2023.

New home sales reached a six-month high in March while the median price fell for a second straight month.

Bitcoin's closing price surged above $90,000 this week for the first time since March. BTC is now down ~1% year to date and is ~12% below its record high from January 2025.

Gas prices were down for a second straight week, falling to a one-month low. As of April 21st, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 3 cents from the previous week.

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed further in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell nine points this month to -13 after falling ten points in March, marking the largest two-month decline since early 2022. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -6.

Four of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 21, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.03%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.35% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.88%.

Home values fell for the first time in two years in March, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for an 11th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits unexpectedly rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.482 million in March. This marks a 1.6% increase from February but a 0.2% decline compared to one year ago.

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts plummeted to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.324 million in March. This marks an 11.4% decrease from February, the largest monthly decline in a year, but a 1.9% increase compared to one year ago.

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed a decline in activity this month. The index sank nearly 39 points to -26.4, its lowest reading in two years. The latest reading was much lower than the forecast of 2.2.

Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index one of the most closely watched economic indicators. What does inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.

Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.

Industrial production fell 0.3% in March, the first monthly drop since November and more than the expected 0.2% decline. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 1.3%.

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for March showed a surge in consumer spending last month, with headline sales rising 1.4%. This is the largest monthly increase since January 2023 and higher than the expected 1.3% growth.

Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.

Travel on all roads and streets declined in February. The 12-month moving average was down 0.11% month-over-month but was up 0.95% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.17% MoM and down 0.95% YoY.

Manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing April survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 11.9 points but remained below zero at -8.1. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -12.8.

Four of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through April 11, 2025. Chile's IPSA is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.2%. Brazil's IBOVESPA is in second with a year to date gain of 6.3% while Mexico's BMV IPC is in third with a year to date gain of 3.5%.

Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.4% month-over-month after a 0.1% increase in February. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for March puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.39%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, for a second straight month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.95%.

This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.

Inflation cooled for a second straight month in March, falling to its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.5% growth.

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of March, the labor force participation rate is at 62.5%, up from 62.4% the previous month.

Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for March. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 228,000.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a third straight month, falling to 97.4 in March. Notably, the net percent of small business owners expecting higher sales volume fell for a third consecutive month after surging from recession levels after the election.

March's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).

Multiple jobholders account for 5.6% of civilian employment, the highest level in over 20 years.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of March 28th, the index was at 12.038, down 1.225 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In March, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.

Light vehicle sales spiked to their highest level in nearly four years in March while heavy truck sales dropped to its lowest level since July 2020.

The latest employment report showed that 228,000 jobs were added in March, exceeding the expected 137,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 4.2%.

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $19,313 for an annualized real return of 13.24%.

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the March 2025 close.

With the Q4 GDP third estimate and the March close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 209.6%, up slightly from the previous quarter.