At the end of February, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 178% above its long-term trend, up from 177% in January and just below its record high of 185% in December.

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of February 28, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.31%.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.3 in February, indicating marginal expansion in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 50.6.

The U.S. manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate since June 2022 in February. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose for a second straight month to 52.7, exceeding the 51.6 forecast.

With the release of January's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.84% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.51% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain in a year. The year-over-year metrics are 3.58% nominal and 1.05% real, the lowest level since 2022.

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The January core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose for a second straight month in February but remains historically low. The index increased to 45.5 from 39.5 in January, surpassing the 40.5 forecast. The index remained in contraction territory for a 15th consecutive month.

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the start of 2025. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in January and 0.3% from December, as expected.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.7% in January and is up 4.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.

The second estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.35%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.71%, a slowdown from 2.22% for the Q3 headline number.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $286.00B in January. This represents a 3.1% increase from the previous month and a 3.4% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was better than the expected 2.0% growth.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in January, dropping to its lowest level on record. The index came in at 70.6, a 4.6% decline from the previous month and a 5.2% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 0.9% month-over-month.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey continued to decline in February, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from January. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 15 in January to 14 in February.

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate was consistent with the forecast and is slower than the Q3 final estimate of 3.1%.

Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In February, the MCSI fell to 64.7, its lowest level in fifteen months. Meanwhile, the CCI experienced its sharpest decline since 2021, falling to 98.3.

New home sales fell more than expected while prices jumped to a two-year high last month. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 in January, below the 679,000 forecast. This represents a 10.5% decline from December's upwardly revised rate of 734,000 and a 1.1% drop from one year ago.

Fifth district manufacturing activity improved in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to 6 this month from -4 in January, the largest one month increase in over three years. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -3 and is the highest reading since April 2022.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® dropped sharply in February, falling for a third straight month. The index decreased to 98.3 this month from January's upwardly revised 105.3. This month's reading was worse than the 102.7 forecast.

Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 436.1 in December, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.4% from the previous month and up 4.7% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real index was lower at 201.8, a record high. Real house prices were flat month-over-month and up 2.8% year-over-year.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for February. The general business activity index came in at -8.3 after rising notably in January. This marks a 22.4 point decline from the previous month, the sharpest monthly drop since March 2020.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.03 in January from +0.18 in December. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from December and one category made a negative contributions in January.

Existing home sales started the year with their first decline in four months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales retreated 4.9% from December, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million units in January.

In January, nominal home values rose for the 22nd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the ninth straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed continued expansion though activity declined. In February, the index fell to 18.1 from 44.3 in January, the largest monthly drop since 2020. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 19.4.

Household debt increased by $93 billion (0.52%) in Q4 2024, reaching $18.04 trillion. While all debt categories saw quarterly gains, the overall rise was primarily driven by credit card debt.

This series has been updated to include the January release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,657, down 7.0% from over 50 years ago.

The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.

The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.

The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.

A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the equity market peak in 1929. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close. These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.

What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.

Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.

This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.

With 2024 behind us, let's revisit the top 10 most-read charts of the year.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has three decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.