The RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average.
In this article, we look at three indicators from the past week: retail sales, industrial production, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI). At first, these indicators might seem unrelated. However, they all have a role in predicting economic trends.
Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher and ranked as the #1 eNewsletter for financial advisors by the Erdos & Morgan “FAMOUS” Study (2019-2023) has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2024.
The S&P 500 posted a near-perfect week, with gains every day except Thursday.
Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.
In the week ending on June 3, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 1.09% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.13%.
A bull market occurs when stocks are rising, the economy is expanding, and there is overall optimism towards market conditions. On the contrary, a bear market occurs when stock prices are falling, the economy is contracting, and there is overall pessimism towards market conditions. There are a handful of theories as to where the "bear" and "bull" names originated from for describing the stock market but the one that I find the most helpful is that they are derived from the way the animals attack their opponents. A bull thrusts its horns up in the air; a bear swipes its paws down.
Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in May to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.5% from the previous month to 101.2. While the index does signal softer economic conditions lay ahead, the LEI is currently not signaling a recession.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. What does inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), and Nasdaq Composite are all stock market indexes used to measure the performance of various aspects of the U.S. stock market. The indexes generally rise and fall together, however the extent of gains or losses produced by each can differ depending on market conditions and the state of the economy.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In May, the MCSI fell to its lowest level in six months at 69.1. Meanwhile, the CCI rose for the first time in four months to 102.0.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Trading with a margin debt can magnify gains because an investor can benefit from the upside of any stock without having to invest 100%, resulting in greater profit. On the flip side, trading with margin debt can also exacerbate losses because if a stock's value were to depreciate, the investor may face a margin call and would need to come up with additional cash to reach the minimum requirement.
Let's take a closer look at the latest employment report numbers on full- and part-time employment. Buried near the bottom of table A-9 of the government's employment situation summary are the numbers for full- and part-time workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly current population survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs.
Among all economic indicators, some of the most closely watched are those surrounding the labor market. They provide insight into the health of the economy. But they also impact individuals’ lives and play a central role in government policy decisions.
The Buffett Indicator, also known as Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001, he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." It is a measure of the total market value of all publicly-traded stocks in a country divided by the country's GDP and can be used as a way to assess whether the country's stock market is undervalued, fair valued, or overvalued.
This article takes a deep look at three important economic releases from the past week: PCE, GDP, and consumer sentiment.
Economic indicators are essential tools that provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.
Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher also ranked as the No. 1 eNewsletter for financial advisors by the Erdos & Morgan “FAMOUS” Study (2019-2023), has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q1 2024.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the health and performance of an economy. Last week featured employment updates.
The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly gain of 3.10%, after a gain of 5.17% in February. After close on the last day of the month, zero of five Ivy portfolio ETFs are signaling "cash", down from last month's final single "cash" signal.
Economic indicators allow policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions about financial markets.
The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $50,210, down 7.3% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.
This week on Charts in Perspective, economic analyst for VettaFi, Jennifer Nash, goes over four key market valuation indicators. Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 89% to 149%, depending on the indicator, up from last month's 82% to 140%.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January shows that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The January core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge. For a closer look at each of those releases, check out our latest Consumer Price Index and PCE Price Index releases.
The latest employment report showed 353,000 jobs were added in January, almost twice as much as the expected addition of 187,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%. In this video, economic analyst Jennifer Nash reviews the latest employment report from January while giving her insights into the modern job market.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in 2023.
As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q3 2023.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They serve as essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses alike.
Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.
This week was packed with several key economic releases that helped provide insight into the overall state of the U.S. economy. Policymakers and advisors closely monitor economic indicators to understand recession risk and the direction of interest rates because the data can ultimately impact business decisions and financial markets.
The S&P 500 closed August with a monthly loss of 1.71%, after a gain of 3.22% in July.
Several key economic indicators are released every week offering valuable insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy. Policymakers and advisors closely monitor economic indicators to understand recession risk and the direction of interest rates because the data can ultimately impact business decisions and financial markets.
This weekly update tracks some of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin and ether. We’ve also included XRP, as it was one of the largest cryptocurrencies when this article began.
With the Fed’s tightening on monetary policy and the constant threat of a recession looming, policymakers and advisors are closely monitoring economic indicators because the data can ultimately impact business decisions and financial markets.
The yield on the 10-year note ended August 11, 2023, at 4.16%, the two-year note ended at 4.89%, and the 30-year at 4.24%.
This article takes a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of the July 31, 2023 close. The chart below shows the 10-year constant-maturity yield since 1962 along with the Fed funds rate (FFR) and inflation.
Economic indicators are released every week to help provide insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy. In this article, we examine indicators from the past week, such as inflation, that shed light on both inflationary trends and sentiment within the market.
Economic indicators are released every week to help provide insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy. In this article, we cover three of the most important economic releases from the past week: the BLS employment report, job openings, and labor turnover (JOLTS), and the ADP employment report.
