Fixed Income and Tariff Policy: Advising Clients in an Era of Uncertainty

Susan MangieroThe views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

Unless you’ve been vacationing on a remote island, you are acutely aware of the dramatic equity index swings that followed President Trump’s April announcements about tariff policy revisions. The fixed income markets reacted in kind, as indicated by the large jumps in the ICE BofAML MOVE Index, also known as the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate. Similar to the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, MOVE measures volatility, but for Treasuries and not equities.

While tariff negotiations may well bear fruit eventually, investors today are trying to figure out the impact of changing trade pacts on GDP growth, interest rate levels, the value of the dollar, and the ability of the Treasury to refinance $9.2 trillion of our $36 trillion federal debt in 2025. Given its mammoth size — 39.3% of the global total — fluctuations in the U.S. debt market impact companies, individuals, and institutions.

global fixed income