Fixed-income investors concerned about tariffs and US exceptionalism may find opportunities in hedged global bonds.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while also projecting slow economic growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation. And while the Fed signaled that two further rate cuts are still their base-case for the remainder of 2025, the timing of those cuts remains up in the air.
After running a surplus in April thanks to tax day, the federal government was back to business as usual in May, spending massive amounts of money and charting another big budget deficit.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
The S&P 500 posted its second straight weekly loss, finishing down 0.2% from the previous Friday.
US stocks rose on Friday as investors returned from the Juneteenth holiday break to evaluate recent comments from a top Federal Reserve official as well as the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Given that the bill’s failure to reduce the deficit is due in part to its extension and expansion of the special tax treatment for non-corporate businesses that Johnson insisted on in 2017, which will cost an estimated $820 billion over the next decade, the senator does not make for the most credible of deficit hawks.
The president recently expressed his support for a great idea: investing an additional $3 billion in trade schools.
The most powerful institution in global finance is as completely and utterly confused as the rest of us.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
This is the first in a three-part series outlining why I believe bonds are set to outperform. Here, I focus on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the June 2025 meeting, and why the Fed’s approach is positive for bond investors. Parts 2 and 3 will address valuation, politics, recession risk, and the secular horizon.
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
After a long dry spell, there are signs of life in the initial public offerings space. An increase in offerings can sometimes suggest an improvement in overall market sentiment.
Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
A record share of the world’s central banks plans to accumulate more gold over the next 12 months, drawn by bullion’s performance during times of crisis and protection against inflation.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May, lower than the forecasted 0.0% reading. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 0.6%.
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Mark O’Donovan head of its international consumer bank, giving him oversight of the firm’s existing consumer offering in the UK, planned launch in Germany and stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank.
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
How do we give clients what they’re truly looking for — income certainty, simplicity, peace of mind —without triggering resistance that shuts the conversation down?
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Venture capitalists are betting on a product that’s close to their hearts: software for venture capitalists. Juniper Square Inc., a software provider for VCs and other private investors, has raised $130 million in a deal that values the company at $1.1 billion.
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is at $920.96 billion, up 8.3% from April. This marks the first monthly increase and highest debt level since January.
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), calls for a full, modern audit of America's gold holdings—something that hasn't occurred in over 65 years.
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
Consumer sentiment rebounded in June, improving for the first time in six months. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 this month, its highest level since February but still historically low.
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
Industrial robotics is no longer a niche topic reserved for factory optimization—it is becoming a key lever in national strategies for productivity, labor substitution and supply chain resilience.
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
The US 2025 tax bill enhances certain deductions and includes provisions for business growth and development. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights of what is being debated on Capitol Hill and the impact on business owners.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
When it comes to inflation, America has reached a “Mission Accomplished” moment. Rule No. 1 of inflation reports is never to read too much into one report, but there have now been several months of fairly low inflation, so it seems safe to call it: The Fed did its job. Pandemic inflation is over.
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
After weeks of hand-wringing around demand for long-term US debt, all eyes are on Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction for a fresh read on whether spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the maturity.
It’s premature to assume that tariffs won’t push up inflation, but the developments have been pretty encouraging thus far.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
Back in 2016, Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, revealed that it was considering an offer for the London Stock Exchange Group Plc.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
Economic Insights
More Income, Less Volatility? The Case for Going Global
Fixed-income investors concerned about tariffs and US exceptionalism may find opportunities in hedged global bonds.
Slower Growth, Higher Unemployment, Still Two Cuts
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while also projecting slow economic growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation. And while the Fed signaled that two further rate cuts are still their base-case for the remainder of 2025, the timing of those cuts remains up in the air.
Business as Usual: Another Big Budget Deficit in May
After running a surplus in April thanks to tax day, the federal government was back to business as usual in May, spending massive amounts of money and charting another big budget deficit.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 20, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Down for Second Straight Week
The S&P 500 posted its second straight weekly loss, finishing down 0.2% from the previous Friday.
US Stocks Gain as Fed’s Waller Offers Hope on July Rate Cut
US stocks rose on Friday as investors returned from the Juneteenth holiday break to evaluate recent comments from a top Federal Reserve official as well as the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Why Cutting Federal Spending to Pre-Pandemic Levels Is So Hard
Given that the bill’s failure to reduce the deficit is due in part to its extension and expansion of the special tax treatment for non-corporate businesses that Johnson insisted on in 2017, which will cost an estimated $820 billion over the next decade, the senator does not make for the most credible of deficit hawks.
Trump’s Trade School Idea Is a $3 Billion Winner
The president recently expressed his support for a great idea: investing an additional $3 billion in trade schools.
The Fed Is Just as Confused as the Rest of Us
The most powerful institution in global finance is as completely and utterly confused as the rest of us.
America's Driving Habits: April 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
The Fed’s Waiting Game: Why It’s Good News for Bond Investors
This is the first in a three-part series outlining why I believe bonds are set to outperform. Here, I focus on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the June 2025 meeting, and why the Fed’s approach is positive for bond investors. Parts 2 and 3 will address valuation, politics, recession risk, and the secular horizon.
Alpha Reimagined
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
Macro Drivers: Positioning for 2025’s Geopolitical Realignment
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
The Case for Going Global Now
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
IPO Market Starts to Warm After Slow Start to 2025
After a long dry spell, there are signs of life in the initial public offerings space. An increase in offerings can sometimes suggest an improvement in overall market sentiment.
A Goldilocks Inflation Moment, Tariffs and All
Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.
Dog Days Ahead
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level in Over Four Years
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Wall Street Fears Hawkish Fed Will Trigger Stock Market Selloff
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
US Stocks Rise as Investors Await Federal Reserve Rate Decision
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
As Japanese Companies Change, Investment Opportunities Bloom
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
Higher Oil Prices Complicate Monetary Policy
If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.
Supply Chain Messages About the Trade War
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Gas Prices Rise for First Time in Four Weeks
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
Treasuries Hold Gains as Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Remain Intact
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
More Central Banks Than Ever Plan to Build Up Their Gold Hoards
A record share of the world’s central banks plans to accumulate more gold over the next 12 months, drawn by bullion’s performance during times of crisis and protection against inflation.
Bigger Than Tariffs
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production Unexpectedly Falls 0.2% in May
Industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May, lower than the forecasted 0.0% reading. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 0.6%.
Stocks Rally in May as Tariff Fears Subside; Long Yields Move Higher
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
Retail Sales Sink 0.9% in May, Worse Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Early Signs of Economic Weakness are Starting to Emerge
The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
JPMorgan Names O’Donovan Head of International Consumer Bank
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Mark O’Donovan head of its international consumer bank, giving him oversight of the firm’s existing consumer offering in the UK, planned launch in Germany and stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank.
Trump’s Trade Deal with China Is a Tailwind for Global Shipping
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
Muted Market Response to Iran Attacks
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
Giving Retirees More Income Security — Without Triggering Annuity Aversion
How do we give clients what they’re truly looking for — income certainty, simplicity, peace of mind —without triggering resistance that shuts the conversation down?
Buy, Borrow, Die: Why This Popular Tax Strategy for the Rich Doesn’t Work
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline in June
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Unicorn Juniper Square Sells Picks and Shovels of Private Market Boom
Venture capitalists are betting on a product that’s close to their hearts: software for venture capitalists. Juniper Square Inc., a software provider for VCs and other private investors, has raised $130 million in a deal that values the company at $1.1 billion.
Traders Hold Their Nerve to Ride Bumpy Emerging-Market Rally
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
Household Net Worth Q1 2025: The "Real" Story
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Edges Up While Sentiment Rebounds
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
Margin Debt Jumps 8.3% in May
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is at $920.96 billion, up 8.3% from April. This marks the first monthly increase and highest debt level since January.
Time to Audit the Gold: Why Congress Is Finally Asking Hard Questions
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), calls for a full, modern audit of America's gold holdings—something that hasn't occurred in over 65 years.
The Deficit Narrative May Find its Cure in Artificial Intelligence
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
Consumer Sentiment Rebounds in June
Consumer sentiment rebounded in June, improving for the first time in six months. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 this month, its highest level since February but still historically low.
The Investment Signal in the Noise
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Schwab Market Perspective: 2025 Mid-Year Outlook
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
Building Steady Streams: Dividend ETFs in Focus
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: The Japan Problem
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
From Factory Floor to Autonomous Fleet: The Realignment of Robotics in 2025
Industrial robotics is no longer a niche topic reserved for factory optimization—it is becoming a key lever in national strategies for productivity, labor substitution and supply chain resilience.
AI: The Challenges for Investors
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
JPMorgan Can Retain Junior Bankers With Cash, Not Threats
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
The South Is Beating Inflation — But Not Housing
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
"Yen-Carry" Anniversary Nears, but Worries Fade
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
What Business Owners Need to Know About the New Tax Bill
The US 2025 tax bill enhances certain deductions and includes provisions for business growth and development. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights of what is being debated on Capitol Hill and the impact on business owners.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Harvard and Yale Will Finally Lift the Veil on Private Assets
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
The Fed Can Now Declare Victory Over Inflation
When it comes to inflation, America has reached a “Mission Accomplished” moment. Rule No. 1 of inflation reports is never to read too much into one report, but there have now been several months of fairly low inflation, so it seems safe to call it: The Fed did its job. Pandemic inflation is over.
Cautious Optimism: Shift Exposure, Stay Balanced
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
US Long-Dated Debt Faces Crucial Test in $22 Billion Auction
After weeks of hand-wringing around demand for long-term US debt, all eyes are on Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction for a fresh read on whether spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the maturity.
Why is Inflation Defying Tariff Fears?
It’s premature to assume that tariffs won’t push up inflation, but the developments have been pretty encouraging thus far.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Japan’s Corporate Reforms Create a Catalyst for Equity Returns
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: May 2025
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Treasuries Rally as Soft Inflation Fuels Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
London’s Incredible Shrinking Stock Market
Back in 2016, Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, revealed that it was considering an offer for the London Stock Exchange Group Plc.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.