Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
US inflation showed scant signs of downward momentum at the start of the year, while healthy job growth undergirded the economy, backing the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold the line on interest rates for now.
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
If you’re looking to a popular stock market tracker like the S&P 500 Index to gauge the effect of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, don’t. It’s likely to be insulated from much of the fallout and therefore fail to reflect the true impact on US businesses.
At the start of this week, the question was whether the shock of China’s supercheap AI DeepSeek would compel Silicon Valley’s big artificial-intelligence companies to reduce their spending.
Today we’ll talk about side effects, and whether the cure is worse than the disease.
Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
There weren’t too many market observers who penciled in higher tariffs on Canada than on China, but that’s where things stood, at least for a few hours, before Trump struck a deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
The Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it’s not about to cut short-term interest rates again anytime soon, which is good news if you’d like to see the Fed live up to its goal of bringing inflation down to 2.0%.
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
US bond markets are flashing a warning to US President Donald Trump that his move to unleash tariffs on top trading partners risks fueling inflation and stymieing growth.
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Apple Inc. described its latest results as its “best quarter ever,” but that’s only true if you stop reading near the top of the press release issued Thursday evening. Overall revenue may have reached record levels, but big questions lurk about large parts of the iPhone maker’s business.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
DeepSeek didn’t come out of nowhere. But it seemed to catch Silicon Valley and global investors by surprise this week, to the tune of billions of dollars in stock market value.
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
By now, almost everyone has heard about DeepSeek, the Chinese-made AI that has taught the US a thing or two about building cheaper artificial intelligence.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
We wrote this in the evening last night and with the news so fluid, there are further things we could add this morning.
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
Microsoft Corp. and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek, according to people familiar with the matter.
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
As 2025 begins, the core narrative of global resilience (built throughout 2024) faces fresh uncertainties. Gradual rate cuts, a continued slide in inflation, and steady – if modest – economic growth could set the tone for constructive market performance.
Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher.
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
Tax and spending cuts will face Congressional roadblocks.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Let's discuss the recent strong correlation between the appreciating dollar and rising yields, and the reasons for the relationship.
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
As growth extends to more regions, we see expanding opportunities across countries and assets.
Emerging Markets
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: January 2025
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Inflation Is Proving Sticky as Fed Chair Powell Heads to the Hill
US inflation showed scant signs of downward momentum at the start of the year, while healthy job growth undergirded the economy, backing the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold the line on interest rates for now.
The Hot Money in Commodities Is Betting on the Tropics
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
The S&P 500 Is Too Big to Falter on Trump’s Tariffs
If you’re looking to a popular stock market tracker like the S&P 500 Index to gauge the effect of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, don’t. It’s likely to be insulated from much of the fallout and therefore fail to reflect the true impact on US businesses.
DeepSeek Fails to Deter $325 Billion Gamble of the Century
At the start of this week, the question was whether the shock of China’s supercheap AI DeepSeek would compel Silicon Valley’s big artificial-intelligence companies to reduce their spending.
Serious Side Effects
Today we’ll talk about side effects, and whether the cure is worse than the disease.
Q4 Earnings Growth Continues to Climb Despite Mixed Tech Results
Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Tactical Rules Turn Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
January’s Top 10 Articles Are an Educational Selection
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
When Investors Own Canada and Don’t Realize It
There weren’t too many market observers who penciled in higher tariffs on Canada than on China, but that’s where things stood, at least for a few hours, before Trump struck a deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Quarterly Review and Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2024
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Gold Hits Fresh Record on Haven Demand as Tightness Persists
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
An Early Look at the Implications of Tariffs and a Trade War
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
How Is China Dodging U.S. Tariffs?
The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Alphabet’s Discounted Valuation Is an Antidote to Tariff Risk
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
US Exceptionalism Is the Only Game in Town
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
Better Together: Why Cities Are Man’s Greatest Invention and How We Could Fix them
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
Inflation, Tariffs, and the Fed
The Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it’s not about to cut short-term interest rates again anytime soon, which is good news if you’d like to see the Fed live up to its goal of bringing inflation down to 2.0%.
DeepSeek DeepSinks Bullish Exuberance
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
Earnings Coming in Better-Than-Expected As Peak Season Begins
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
A Pivotal Week: Tech Shift, Fed Patience, Tariff Turbulence
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Northern Exposure
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
American Exceptionalism and the Markets
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
Bessent Takes the Helm on US Debt Sales After Blasting Yellen
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
Bond Traders Warn of Inflation Shock as US Yield Curve Flattens
US bond markets are flashing a warning to US President Donald Trump that his move to unleash tariffs on top trading partners risks fueling inflation and stymieing growth.
Goldman Knows DeepSeek Affects the Future of Work
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Index Mania: On Top of the World
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Apple’s ‘Best Quarter Ever’ Leaves Much to Be Desired
Apple Inc. described its latest results as its “best quarter ever,” but that’s only true if you stop reading near the top of the press release issued Thursday evening. Overall revenue may have reached record levels, but big questions lurk about large parts of the iPhone maker’s business.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Meta’s Aggressive AI Bet Sets Up Stock’s Longest Gain Since 2015
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
Why Chinese Tech Keeps Surprising the West
DeepSeek didn’t come out of nowhere. But it seemed to catch Silicon Valley and global investors by surprise this week, to the tune of billions of dollars in stock market value.
Apple’s Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek’s Emergence
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
Tariffs Dominate Earnings Calls With Firms Bracing for Fallout
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
Q4 Tech Earnings: Will CapEx Take Bite of Profits?
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
China Seeks Wiggle Room for Growth in Year of the Snake
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
2025 International Outlook
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
DeepSeek Calls for Deep Breaths From Big Tech Over Earnings
By now, almost everyone has heard about DeepSeek, the Chinese-made AI that has taught the US a thing or two about building cheaper artificial intelligence.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China’s Transitory Rebound
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
Insights From our Q4 2024 Economic and Market Review
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
What We're Thinking
We wrote this in the evening last night and with the news so fluid, there are further things we could add this morning.
Lutnick Says Trump’s Tariffs Will Restore US Economy and Respect
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
Microsoft Probing If DeepSeek-Linked Group Improperly Obtained OpenAI Data
Microsoft Corp. and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek, according to people familiar with the matter.
Market Review Q4 24
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Tariffs: A Case Study
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
2025 Outlook: Balancing Resilience, Policy Changes, and Evolving Market Trends
As 2025 begins, the core narrative of global resilience (built throughout 2024) faces fresh uncertainties. Gradual rate cuts, a continued slide in inflation, and steady – if modest – economic growth could set the tone for constructive market performance.
Are Return Expectations For 2025 Too High?
Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher.
How to Invest in Emerging Market Equities as New US Policies Bite
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
Markets Resilient Amid Historic Week and Fed Meeting in Focus
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
Washington Gets to Work on a Budget
Tax and spending cuts will face Congressional roadblocks.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
It's the Dollar, Stupid
Let's discuss the recent strong correlation between the appreciating dollar and rising yields, and the reasons for the relationship.
DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Shares on Track for $1 Trillion Drop
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
The Three Forces Shifting the Investment Landscape
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
DeepSeek Shows Silicon Valley’s Huge Blindspot on AI
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Crucial Questions
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Navigating Earnings Season: Margins for Error
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
S&P 500 Sees Best Start for a President Since 1985
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Fasten Your Seat Belts
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.
Not Time Yet for Stocks to Worry About Rising Rates
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Multi-Asset 2025 Outlook: Expanding Horizons
As growth extends to more regions, we see expanding opportunities across countries and assets.