Fixed-income investors concerned about tariffs and US exceptionalism may find opportunities in hedged global bonds.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while also projecting slow economic growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation. And while the Fed signaled that two further rate cuts are still their base-case for the remainder of 2025, the timing of those cuts remains up in the air.
After running a surplus in April thanks to tax day, the federal government was back to business as usual in May, spending massive amounts of money and charting another big budget deficit.
At Parametric, our years of experience have taught us that markets can swing up and down quickly and without warning. Since no one can time these swings, we believe it's imperative to seek both loss harvesting and benchmark tracking simultaneously.
On Monday, Tortoise Capital expanded its fund library with the launch of the Tortoise Energy Fund (TNGY). Formerly a mutual fund, the Tortoise Energy Fund is now an ETF available on the New York Stock Exchange.
A 529 plan is a popular tool for saving for college expenses. When it comes to who maintains control over the 529 plan’s assets, in most cases, it’s the account owner. This is often a parent or grandparent. The owner also has the ability to make investment choices and manage withdrawals.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
US stocks rose on Friday as investors returned from the Juneteenth holiday break to evaluate recent comments from a top Federal Reserve official as well as the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Given that the bill’s failure to reduce the deficit is due in part to its extension and expansion of the special tax treatment for non-corporate businesses that Johnson insisted on in 2017, which will cost an estimated $820 billion over the next decade, the senator does not make for the most credible of deficit hawks.
The president recently expressed his support for a great idea: investing an additional $3 billion in trade schools.
The most powerful institution in global finance is as completely and utterly confused as the rest of us.
US banks seem likely to get the changes they want to an obscure but important rule known as the supplementary leverage ratio.
AI is advancing at an astonishing pace and undermining the core businesses of tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple. But it is not only transforming the applications we use; it is also reshaping the very process of software development, threatening to render much of today’s tech sector obsolete.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
This is the first in a three-part series outlining why I believe bonds are set to outperform. Here, I focus on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the June 2025 meeting, and why the Fed’s approach is positive for bond investors. Parts 2 and 3 will address valuation, politics, recession risk, and the secular horizon.
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
After a long dry spell, there are signs of life in the initial public offerings space. An increase in offerings can sometimes suggest an improvement in overall market sentiment.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
It's important to consider non-hardship 401(k) withdrawals carefully. Our Bill Cass explains why individuals should check plan eligibility and consider asset protection and tax implications.
Equities have been on quite the roller coaster in 2025. Although the tariff situation has driven much of this volatility, we find ourselves in a similar spot to where we began the year.
Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.
When planning for future financial needs, take the time to understand the key differences between a 529 plan vs. IUL insurance. Both are valuable tools, but they serve different purposes and offer unique benefits.
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
CoinShares collated data from the first-quarter SEC 13-F filings to reveal bitcoin ETF trends. While institutional investors decreased their holdings for the first time since spot bitcoin ETFs launched, advisors actually increased their exposure quarter-over-quarter.
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
When problems arise with colleagues at a firm, it's best to tread carefully and thoughtfully.
As communications become more dynamic and digital interactions more complex, static captures are increasingly out of step with the needs of modern compliance and the expectations of U.S. regulators.
How do you make sure your prospects feel confident and clear about moving forward?
Nvidia Corp. billionaire boss Jensen Huang, clad in his signature leather jacket, has been crisscrossing European capitals and sharing the stage with the likes of Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron as he pitches “sovereign” artificial intelligence, a vision of new data centers offering essential compute power within national borders rather than via dominant tech firms from abroad.
Blackstone Inc. sees a $200 billion investment opportunity in European credit over the next 10 years, underscoring the region’s appeal to investors looking for alternatives to the US.
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
For more than two years, conversations about the biggest, most important technology companies have revolved around the same seven stocks. Now, some on Wall Street are making the case that Broadcom Inc. should be part of that discussion.
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.393 million in May, the lowest level in nearly five years.
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation analyzes Eversource Energy (ES), for Income and Total Return, a New England-based utility known for its consistent earnings and dividend growth.
If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.
The question isn’t whether robots will transform global labor markets. It’s how quickly the transformation will unfold. This transformation presents both unprecedented challenges and remarkable opportunities.
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
A 529 plan can influence financial aid eligibility and the amount awarded. While these savings plans arevaluable for covering education expenses, they are considered parental assets on the Free Applicationfor Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).
The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
In 2025, the United States has shifted from an open-trade economy to one burdened by some of the highest tariff rates in modern history.
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
A record share of the world’s central banks plans to accumulate more gold over the next 12 months, drawn by bullion’s performance during times of crisis and protection against inflation.
The Senate’s draft tax bill calls for increasing an investment credit for semiconductor manufacturers, a potential boon for chipmakers that the Trump administration is urging to increase the size of their US projects.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Let’s talk about life expectancy. More specifically – should it play a role in retirement planning?You might be surprised to learn that the answer is: Absolutely not.
The ETF market has hit a symbolic turning point: active funds now outnumber passive ones for the first time, marking a sharp break from the industry’s index-tracking origins — even if actively managed assets still account for just a tenth of assets.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Ever since their near collapse during the 2008 financial crisis, the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have performed impressively under the conservatorship of the US government.
The fund shines through as a prime option worthy of consideration among the vast alternatives present in the muni market. With their rare combination of credit quality and yield, munis are offering fixed income investors prime benefits in a still-uncertain bond environment.
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
A growing body of evidence suggests the differences between private and public equity may be more a matter of perception than reality.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Mark O’Donovan head of its international consumer bank, giving him oversight of the firm’s existing consumer offering in the UK, planned launch in Germany and stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank.
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 16, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 22.61%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.42% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 7.45%.
If the market view on the administration's economic policies shifts and a strong dollar policy remains, the dollar could rally, and U.S. assets might see a rebound from their recent underperformance.
How do we give clients what they’re truly looking for — income certainty, simplicity, peace of mind —without triggering resistance that shuts the conversation down?
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Venture capitalists are betting on a product that’s close to their hearts: software for venture capitalists. Juniper Square Inc., a software provider for VCs and other private investors, has raised $130 million in a deal that values the company at $1.1 billion.
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
It sounded like something that should have come from the sports desk — a $14.3 billion transfer fee for a young up-and-coming prospect as Meta Platforms Inc. looks to rebuild its team for the tough season ahead.
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
Hiive Markets Ltd., an online trading platform for shares of venture-backed companies, is hoping to raise as much as $100 million as soon as this year, its chief executive officer said.
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), calls for a full, modern audit of America's gold holdings—something that hasn't occurred in over 65 years.
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
Global Markets
More Income, Less Volatility? The Case for Going Global
Fixed-income investors concerned about tariffs and US exceptionalism may find opportunities in hedged global bonds.
Slower Growth, Higher Unemployment, Still Two Cuts
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while also projecting slow economic growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation. And while the Fed signaled that two further rate cuts are still their base-case for the remainder of 2025, the timing of those cuts remains up in the air.
Business as Usual: Another Big Budget Deficit in May
After running a surplus in April thanks to tax day, the federal government was back to business as usual in May, spending massive amounts of money and charting another big budget deficit.
Lessons Learned: Potential Pitfalls of Loss Harvesting During High Volatility
At Parametric, our years of experience have taught us that markets can swing up and down quickly and without warning. Since no one can time these swings, we believe it's imperative to seek both loss harvesting and benchmark tracking simultaneously.
Tortoise Capital Lists New Active Energy ETF
On Monday, Tortoise Capital expanded its fund library with the launch of the Tortoise Energy Fund (TNGY). Formerly a mutual fund, the Tortoise Energy Fund is now an ETF available on the New York Stock Exchange.
Who Maintains Control Over a 529 Plan’s Assets?
A 529 plan is a popular tool for saving for college expenses. When it comes to who maintains control over the 529 plan’s assets, in most cases, it’s the account owner. This is often a parent or grandparent. The owner also has the ability to make investment choices and manage withdrawals.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 20, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
US Stocks Gain as Fed’s Waller Offers Hope on July Rate Cut
US stocks rose on Friday as investors returned from the Juneteenth holiday break to evaluate recent comments from a top Federal Reserve official as well as the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Why Cutting Federal Spending to Pre-Pandemic Levels Is So Hard
Given that the bill’s failure to reduce the deficit is due in part to its extension and expansion of the special tax treatment for non-corporate businesses that Johnson insisted on in 2017, which will cost an estimated $820 billion over the next decade, the senator does not make for the most credible of deficit hawks.
Trump’s Trade School Idea Is a $3 Billion Winner
The president recently expressed his support for a great idea: investing an additional $3 billion in trade schools.
The Fed Is Just as Confused as the Rest of Us
The most powerful institution in global finance is as completely and utterly confused as the rest of us.
Bessent’s Top Bank Reform is Good for Markets
US banks seem likely to get the changes they want to an obscure but important rule known as the supplementary leverage ratio.
How AI Will Disrupt Big Tech
AI is advancing at an astonishing pace and undermining the core businesses of tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple. But it is not only transforming the applications we use; it is also reshaping the very process of software development, threatening to render much of today’s tech sector obsolete.
America's Driving Habits: April 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
The Fed’s Waiting Game: Why It’s Good News for Bond Investors
This is the first in a three-part series outlining why I believe bonds are set to outperform. Here, I focus on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the June 2025 meeting, and why the Fed’s approach is positive for bond investors. Parts 2 and 3 will address valuation, politics, recession risk, and the secular horizon.
Alpha Reimagined
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
Macro Drivers: Positioning for 2025’s Geopolitical Realignment
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
5 Themes Defining Bond ETF Investing Today
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The Case for Going Global Now
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
IPO Market Starts to Warm After Slow Start to 2025
After a long dry spell, there are signs of life in the initial public offerings space. An increase in offerings can sometimes suggest an improvement in overall market sentiment.
Buying a Bond at a Premium Doesn’t Mean You Will Lose Money
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Key Considerations for Evaluating Non-Hardship 401(k) Withdrawals
It's important to consider non-hardship 401(k) withdrawals carefully. Our Bill Cass explains why individuals should check plan eligibility and consider asset protection and tax implications.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Big Expectations and Big Uncertainty for Equities
Equities have been on quite the roller coaster in 2025. Although the tariff situation has driven much of this volatility, we find ourselves in a similar spot to where we began the year.
A Goldilocks Inflation Moment, Tariffs and All
Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.
529 Plans vs. Indexed Universal Life (IUL) Insurance
When planning for future financial needs, take the time to understand the key differences between a 529 plan vs. IUL insurance. Both are valuable tools, but they serve different purposes and offer unique benefits.
Dog Days Ahead
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
Advisors Increase Their Bitcoin Exposure in Q1 2025
CoinShares collated data from the first-quarter SEC 13-F filings to reveal bitcoin ETF trends. While institutional investors decreased their holdings for the first time since spot bitcoin ETFs launched, advisors actually increased their exposure quarter-over-quarter.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level in Over Four Years
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Getting Colleagues to Step Up Can Be Difficult
When problems arise with colleagues at a firm, it's best to tread carefully and thoughtfully.
Compliance Relics: The Case Against PDFs & Screenshots
As communications become more dynamic and digital interactions more complex, static captures are increasingly out of step with the needs of modern compliance and the expectations of U.S. regulators.
Why Your Prospects Aren’t Calling You Back
How do you make sure your prospects feel confident and clear about moving forward?
Nvidia’s ‘Sovereign’ AI Could Win a Prize for Irony
Nvidia Corp. billionaire boss Jensen Huang, clad in his signature leather jacket, has been crisscrossing European capitals and sharing the stage with the likes of Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron as he pitches “sovereign” artificial intelligence, a vision of new data centers offering essential compute power within national borders rather than via dominant tech firms from abroad.
Blackstone Sees $200 Billion in Potential European Credit Deals
Blackstone Inc. sees a $200 billion investment opportunity in European credit over the next 10 years, underscoring the region’s appeal to investors looking for alternatives to the US.
Wall Street Fears Hawkish Fed Will Trigger Stock Market Selloff
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
US Stocks Rise as Investors Await Federal Reserve Rate Decision
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
Broadcom’s 340% Rally Has Wall Street Debating If It's Magnificent Seven Material
For more than two years, conversations about the biggest, most important technology companies have revolved around the same seven stocks. Now, some on Wall Street are making the case that Broadcom Inc. should be part of that discussion.
M&A Watch: A String of Hot IPOs Could Spark Second-Half Dealmaking
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
Housing Starts Fall to 5-Year Low in May
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
Building Permits Hit Lowest Level in Five Years
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.393 million in May, the lowest level in nearly five years.
Crypto Index ETFs, Explained for Financial Professionals
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
As Japanese Companies Change, Investment Opportunities Bloom
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
Hold Onto Your Gold
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
Eversource Energy for Income and Total Return
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation analyzes Eversource Energy (ES), for Income and Total Return, a New England-based utility known for its consistent earnings and dividend growth.
Higher Oil Prices Complicate Monetary Policy
If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.
Investment Opportunities as AI, Robots Transform Labor
The question isn’t whether robots will transform global labor markets. It’s how quickly the transformation will unfold. This transformation presents both unprecedented challenges and remarkable opportunities.
Supply Chain Messages About the Trade War
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
How Can “Smart Beta” Go Horribly Right?
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
Dueling Economies
The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
Will a 529 Plan Affect Financial Aid Eligibility or Amount Awarded?
A 529 plan can influence financial aid eligibility and the amount awarded. While these savings plans are
valuable for covering education expenses, they are considered parental assets on the Free Application
for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).
Treasury Tax Tension
The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
Gas Prices Rise for First Time in Four Weeks
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
The Taxes You Don’t See When You Pay Them
In 2025, the United States has shifted from an open-trade economy to one burdened by some of the highest tariff rates in modern history.
Treasuries Hold Gains as Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Remain Intact
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
More Central Banks Than Ever Plan to Build Up Their Gold Hoards
A record share of the world’s central banks plans to accumulate more gold over the next 12 months, drawn by bullion’s performance during times of crisis and protection against inflation.
Trump Tax Bill to Boost Biden’s Chip Tax Credit to 30%
The Senate’s draft tax bill calls for increasing an investment credit for semiconductor manufacturers, a potential boon for chipmakers that the Trump administration is urging to increase the size of their US projects.
Bigger Than Tariffs
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Life Expectancy: The (F)Law of Averages
Let’s talk about life expectancy. More specifically – should it play a role in retirement planning?You might be surprised to learn that the answer is: Absolutely not.
Active ETFs Now Outnumber Passive Funds in Industry Watershed Moment
The ETF market has hit a symbolic turning point: active funds now outnumber passive ones for the first time, marking a sharp break from the industry’s index-tracking origins — even if actively managed assets still account for just a tenth of assets.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Fannie and Freddie Can Never Be Truly Privatized: The Editorial Board
Ever since their near collapse during the 2008 financial crisis, the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have performed impressively under the conservatorship of the US government.
As Munis See Increased Issuance, Here’s an Active Choice
The fund shines through as a prime option worthy of consideration among the vast alternatives present in the muni market. With their rare combination of credit quality and yield, munis are offering fixed income investors prime benefits in a still-uncertain bond environment.
Stocks Rally in May as Tariff Fears Subside; Long Yields Move Higher
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
Retail Sales Sink 0.9% in May, Worse Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
Public Equity May Resemble Private Equity More Than Investors Realize
A growing body of evidence suggests the differences between private and public equity may be more a matter of perception than reality.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
JPMorgan Names O’Donovan Head of International Consumer Bank
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Mark O’Donovan head of its international consumer bank, giving him oversight of the firm’s existing consumer offering in the UK, planned launch in Germany and stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank.
Trump’s Trade Deal with China Is a Tailwind for Global Shipping
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
Muted Market Response to Iran Attacks
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
World Markets Watchlist: June 16, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 16, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 22.61%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.42% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 7.45%.
What's Happening With the Dollar?
If the market view on the administration's economic policies shifts and a strong dollar policy remains, the dollar could rally, and U.S. assets might see a rebound from their recent underperformance.
Giving Retirees More Income Security — Without Triggering Annuity Aversion
How do we give clients what they’re truly looking for — income certainty, simplicity, peace of mind —without triggering resistance that shuts the conversation down?
Buy, Borrow, Die: Why This Popular Tax Strategy for the Rich Doesn’t Work
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline in June
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Unicorn Juniper Square Sells Picks and Shovels of Private Market Boom
Venture capitalists are betting on a product that’s close to their hearts: software for venture capitalists. Juniper Square Inc., a software provider for VCs and other private investors, has raised $130 million in a deal that values the company at $1.1 billion.
Traders Hold Their Nerve to Ride Bumpy Emerging-Market Rally
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
Household Net Worth Q1 2025: The "Real" Story
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Edges Up While Sentiment Rebounds
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
Meta Gets Out Its Checkbook to Catch Up in the AI Race
It sounded like something that should have come from the sports desk — a $14.3 billion transfer fee for a young up-and-coming prospect as Meta Platforms Inc. looks to rebuild its team for the tough season ahead.
Blackstone Taps Ex-Lazard Top Dealmaker, Aims to Back More Banks
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
Pre-IPO Marketplace Hiive Eyes Funding as Competition Rises
Hiive Markets Ltd., an online trading platform for shares of venture-backed companies, is hoping to raise as much as $100 million as soon as this year, its chief executive officer said.
Time to Audit the Gold: Why Congress Is Finally Asking Hard Questions
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), calls for a full, modern audit of America's gold holdings—something that hasn't occurred in over 65 years.
The Deficit Narrative May Find its Cure in Artificial Intelligence
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.