Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
In the case of bond ETFs, it was a strong year in 2024, and key areas could be touch points for investment opportunities.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
While we may joke about spending it down to the last penny, chances are there will still be plenty left for you when all is said and done. We just don’t necessarily want to admit it.
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
“Debanking” is about to get a lot of airtime in US politics, but be warned: This debate is a chimera. Crypto enthusiasts, culture warriors and banks all have dogs in the hunt, with each leaning on the others’ interests and narratives to advance their own.
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
In our view, active investors face opportunities to outperform created by looming policy changes and the macro landscape.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
What’s in store for stocks after two years of strong returns? Fundamental Equities Global CIO Tony DeSpirito assesses the prospects for another positive year and offers his year-ahead outlook through the lens of an active stock picker.
Four strategies for navigating crosswinds in the municipal bond market.
Two months from now, the ETF community of advisors and industry folks will come together. The Exchange conference kicks off in Las Vegas on March 23.
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
US bond funds actively managed by industry heavyweights like Pacific Investment Management Co. attracted the most new investment last year as money returned after a two-year dry spell.
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
As we welcome a new year and its many possibilities, it’s important to reflect on where the markets and investor psychology sit on the pendulum of greed and despair.
All of the attention when it comes to future Fed monetary policy decisions has been laser-focused on rate cuts. We would have to concur, and rightfully so. However, that doesn’t mean investors should take their eyes off the ball and not consider the Fed’s balance sheet.
Big US banks marked the beginning of the Q4 earnings season when they released results last week, and overall they were positive. Because of their position opening up the earnings season they tend to set the tone for things to come.
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
The pairing of active management and fixed income could be as important as any time in recent memory.
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
Today’s video on the Real Estate Sector (REITs) is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 11 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s.
2024 was characterized by megacap dominance, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and gaining roughly 25%. Megacap leadership resulted in the largest companies growing their share of the index. As of this writing, the top seven stocks in the S&P 500 make up 34% of the S&P 500.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Microsoft Corp. has plowed tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. With its stock struggling, the key question is how quickly those investments can prove to be successful.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Active Management
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
MFS Brings Signature Bond Mutual Fund Strategies to ETFs
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
The Mirage of More: Why Chasing Big Returns and Bold Bets Undermine Long-Term Success
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Three Reasons to Consider Dedicated Emerging Market Debt Exposure
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Q4 Earnings Growth Continues to Climb Despite Mixed Tech Results
Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Three Reasons Why It Pays to Be Active as a Muni Investor
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
January’s Top 10 Articles Are an Educational Selection
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Concentrated Stock Positions: High Rewards, Higher Risks – What to Know Before Betting Big on One Stock
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
Active Managers Talk Bond Investing in 2025
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
‘Debanking’ Dispute Highlights a Real Problem
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Steady M&A Deals to Begin 2025, Disappointing IPOs So Far
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Why a Firming in the CPI May be Closer Than You Think
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Active Fixed Income ETFs Can Extend Momentum in 2025
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
U.S. ETF Count Reaches 4,000 With Launches From Cohen & Steers, Thornburg & More
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
Magnificent Seven’s Slowing Growth Threatens S&P 500 Rally
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
Vanguard’s Record Fee Cut Puts Rivals BlackRock, Invesco in Tough Spot
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
In the Hunt for Income, It’s Wise to Broaden Your Horizons
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Mortgage-Backed Securities Don’t Need GSE Privatization to Deliver for Investors
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
2 Funds to Ponder After a Strong Year for Bond ETFs
In the case of bond ETFs, it was a strong year in 2024, and key areas could be touch points for investment opportunities.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
US Exceptionalism Is the Only Game in Town
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
Are Boomers Really Spending Their Children’s Inheritance?
While we may joke about spending it down to the last penny, chances are there will still be plenty left for you when all is said and done. We just don’t necessarily want to admit it.
Earnings Coming in Better-Than-Expected As Peak Season Begins
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
Bifurcated Advancements in 401(k) Investments
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
Vanguard’s Average Fee Is Now Just 0.07% After Biggest-Ever Cut
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Wait and See
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
We're Going Streaking
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
AI in Flux
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Five Questions to Ask About Quality in Equity Portfolios
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
Leadership Perspectives: Managing a Successful Firm
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
Crypto Enters the Debanking Debate With a Weak Case
“Debanking” is about to get a lot of airtime in US politics, but be warned: This debate is a chimera. Crypto enthusiasts, culture warriors and banks all have dogs in the hunt, with each leaning on the others’ interests and narratives to advance their own.
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Capital Markets Outlook 1Q 2025: Mind the Gaps
In our view, active investors face opportunities to outperform created by looming policy changes and the macro landscape.
The Opportunity Right in Front of Investors
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
DeepSeek Exposes Market Risk Hiding in Plain Sight
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
Can the Magnificent 7 Maintain an Upbeat Earnings Season
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
How to Invest in Emerging Market Equities as New US Policies Bite
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
The End of the Neoliberal Era
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
The Mother of All Bubbles?
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
The Three Forces Shifting the Investment Landscape
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Crucial Questions
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Stock Investing Insights to Start the New Year
What’s in store for stocks after two years of strong returns? Fundamental Equities Global CIO Tony DeSpirito assesses the prospects for another positive year and offers his year-ahead outlook through the lens of an active stock picker.
Municipal Outlook 2025: Battling Headwinds, Harnessing Tailwinds
Four strategies for navigating crosswinds in the municipal bond market.
Exchange Excitement Is Building
Two months from now, the ETF community of advisors and industry folks will come together. The Exchange conference kicks off in Las Vegas on March 23.
Tax-Slashing ETF Trailblazer Preps for a Fresh $5 Billion Haul
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
Futures, ETFs, or Physicals: How to Choose the Right Implementation Instrument
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
Pimco, Dodge & Cox Lead Revival in Actively Managed Bond Funds
US bond funds actively managed by industry heavyweights like Pacific Investment Management Co. attracted the most new investment last year as money returned after a two-year dry spell.
America’s Best Stock Picker Keeps Beating Passive Funds
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
Top 5 Issues Institutional Investors Should Be Thinking About in 2025
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: An Exploration of Evolution and Customization
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
Bursting the Complacency Bubble
As we welcome a new year and its many possibilities, it’s important to reflect on where the markets and investor psychology sit on the pendulum of greed and despair.
What about QT?
All of the attention when it comes to future Fed monetary policy decisions has been laser-focused on rate cuts. We would have to concur, and rightfully so. However, that doesn’t mean investors should take their eyes off the ball and not consider the Fed’s balance sheet.
Banks Kick Q4 Earnings Season Off with a Bang As CEO Sentiment Improves
Big US banks marked the beginning of the Q4 earnings season when they released results last week, and overall they were positive. Because of their position opening up the earnings season they tend to set the tone for things to come.
Value Stocks: Why You Might Be Underweight and Unaware
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
Embracing Stock Market Stoicism
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
Muni Bonds: Active Management Stepping Into Spotlight
The pairing of active management and fixed income could be as important as any time in recent memory.
Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Revels Winners and Losers for 2024
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
A Possible Storm
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
REITs and Interest Rates: Navigating the Valuation Rollercoaster
Today’s video on the Real Estate Sector (REITs) is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 11 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s.
S&P 500 Index Concentration Reaches New Highs – Strategically Navigating a Mega-Cap Dominated Market
2024 was characterized by megacap dominance, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and gaining roughly 25%. Megacap leadership resulted in the largest companies growing their share of the index. As of this writing, the top seven stocks in the S&P 500 make up 34% of the S&P 500.
Are California Fires a Risk to the Muni Market?
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
2025 Credit Outlook: On Firm Ground, Despite Shifting Political Sands
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Microsoft’s Stock Revival Hinges on Showing Growth From AI Binge
Microsoft Corp. has plowed tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. With its stock struggling, the key question is how quickly those investments can prove to be successful.
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.