We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 3, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 7.01%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a year to date gain of 6.24% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.92%.
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
Investor appetite for growth really is something to behold.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell at a steady pace in January, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from December. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 17 in December to 15 in January.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
The question asked of me most often recently: "Why are bond yields rising?" After verbally answering it plenty of times, it's time to put my answer in writing for everyone else to see.
On this episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG).
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott delves into the strategy of investing in companies recently removed from major market indices and offers perspective on current stock valuations. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy presents five ETF predictions for 2025.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
The US banking system’s reserves, a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep shrinking its balance sheet, tumbled below $3 trillion to the lowest since October 2020.
Inflation remains the steadying factor in the Fed’s hand, but the Fed's intentions for next year are not likely unanimous.
As you look toward the new year, I’ll share an idea you can give yourself and your team as a gift in 2025.
On this special episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth reviewed the ETF industry’s 2024 performance with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed the ETF industry’s record breaking performance, evolutions in product development, and more.
Change is a catalyst that can drive innovation and help position businesses in all industries for sustained success. The adoption of wealthtech illustrates the transformative power of embracing change.
I will be looking at a few indicators in 2025 to tell me where financial markets are going. Most of them relate to the bond market, because it is both a window into the overall economy and an important component of how stocks and other risky assets are valued.
Treasuries were mixed in thin trading as traders absorbed the prospect of a less aggressive path ahead for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and priced in greater risk for US long-term debt.
Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.
Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
Emerging markets-focused investors have had little to celebrate over the past year.
Index funds emerged in the early 1970s and were designed to match rather than beat the market. For decades, they were associated with the capitalization-weighted (CW) market indexes that defined their investment approach.
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
Displaying your expertise is an attempt to prove your value, and it’s how the industry has always taught advisors to win new clients. However, it does not work.
Has the U.S. economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the U.S. is soon to catch down?
Bond traders have rarely suffered so much from a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Now they fear 2025 threatens more of the same.
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
In an actively managed portfolio, there’s no way to escape capital gains taxes altogether. But understanding the importance of tax efficiency is crucial to long-term success for investors and advisors.
Surely one of the silliest things that happened in tech stocks in 2024 was the sudden tumble in Nvidia Corp. shares moments after its fiscal second-quarter earnings release in August.
Taxes are on my mind. Do I factor in whether a dividend is considered qualified or ordinary when making my recommendations?
A conversation with our stock selection team, part two.
Investors see recent inflation data as a green light for the Federal Reserve to trim another quarter point from the short-term interest rate.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF (VFLO) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Energy is everything. Or, if Einstein was right, you and I are just energy in material form. Accelerate us to lightspeed squared and we might become something else.
Factor-Based Investing
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Amazon Cloud Needs to Deliver After Microsoft, Alphabet Misses
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
Quarterly Review and Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2024
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: January 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Earnings Coming in Better-Than-Expected As Peak Season Begins
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
World Markets Watchlist: February 3, 2025
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 3, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 7.01%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a year to date gain of 6.24% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.92%.
The Fed’s Best Bet Is Patience as Confusion Reigns
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Index Mania: On Top of the World
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Tariffs Dominate Earnings Calls With Firms Bracing for Fallout
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Five Questions to Ask About Quality in Equity Portfolios
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
Leadership Perspectives: Managing a Successful Firm
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
Can the Magnificent 7 Maintain an Upbeat Earnings Season
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
Why Non-Profit Investors Should Think Twice Before De-Risking
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Crucial Questions
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Tax-Slashing ETF Trailblazer Preps for a Fresh $5 Billion Haul
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
Futures, ETFs, or Physicals: How to Choose the Right Implementation Instrument
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
Bet on Rekindled Growth, But Diversification Taking Hold
Investor appetite for growth really is something to behold.
Not Time Yet for Stocks to Worry About Rising Rates
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Existing Home Sales Up for 3rd Straight Month in December
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Fell at Steady Pace in January
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell at a steady pace in January, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from December. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 17 in December to 15 in January.
America's Driving Habits: November 2024
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
BlackRock’s Amped Up ETF Taps Into Wall Street’s Stock Anxiety
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
Canada a ‘Good Place to Hide’ If US Stocks Drop, Contrarian Says
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Why More Asset Managers Are Outsourcing or Co-sourcing Trading
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Household Incomes: The Decline of the "Middle Class" 2023 Update
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
The Missing Piece in America’s Healthcare Debate
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
Why Are Bond Yields Rising?
The question asked of me most often recently: "Why are bond yields rising?" After verbally answering it plenty of times, it's time to put my answer in writing for everyone else to see.
Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG)
On this episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG).
Chasing Alpha: Top Active Equity Strategies for 2025
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of All Employed
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator: December 2024
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Climate Shocks: The Unseen Drivers of Commodity Market Fluctuations in 2023-2024
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
Q4 Recap: US Growth Closes the Year on Top
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
Treasury Bonds: Riding the Range
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
Bitcoin Is Not a Nothing, But Not a Something Either
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott on Deletions ETF, Valuations, & Mean Reversion
Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott delves into the strategy of investing in companies recently removed from major market indices and offers perspective on current stock valuations. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy presents five ETF predictions for 2025.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
Reserves at Fed Sink Below $3 Trillion to the Lowest Since 2020
The US banking system’s reserves, a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep shrinking its balance sheet, tumbled below $3 trillion to the lowest since October 2020.
Fed Faces Inflation. Volatility Looms.
Inflation remains the steadying factor in the Fed’s hand, but the Fed's intentions for next year are not likely unanimous.
Resolve to Set Goals Differently This Year
As you look toward the new year, I’ll share an idea you can give yourself and your team as a gift in 2025.
A Trillion Dollar Industry
On this special episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth reviewed the ETF industry’s 2024 performance with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed the ETF industry’s record breaking performance, evolutions in product development, and more.
Change is Inevitable. Managing it is Crucial.
Change is a catalyst that can drive innovation and help position businesses in all industries for sustained success. The adoption of wealthtech illustrates the transformative power of embracing change.
Where Are Stocks and the Economy Going? Ask Bonds
I will be looking at a few indicators in 2025 to tell me where financial markets are going. Most of them relate to the bond market, because it is both a window into the overall economy and an important component of how stocks and other risky assets are valued.
Treasuries Trade Mixed, With 30-Year Yield Near 2024 Highs
Treasuries were mixed in thin trading as traders absorbed the prospect of a less aggressive path ahead for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and priced in greater risk for US long-term debt.
Stocks Rise in Shortened Session
Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.
Bargain, Value Trap or Something in Between?
Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.
2025 Economic & Market Outlook: Turning the Page
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
For Emerging Markets, ‘Better Luck Next Year’ Is a Hard Sell
Emerging markets-focused investors have had little to celebrate over the past year.
Capitalization-Weighted Indexes, RAFI, “Smart Beta,” and Factors (JPM Series)
Index funds emerged in the early 1970s and were designed to match rather than beat the market. For decades, they were associated with the capitalization-weighted (CW) market indexes that defined their investment approach.
Artificial Intelligence Doesn’t Appear Ready to Take Over the World Yet
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
Your Prospects Aren’t Buying Your Expertise Anymore
Displaying your expertise is an attempt to prove your value, and it’s how the industry has always taught advisors to win new clients. However, it does not work.
Global Conditions Portend a Catch-Down in America
Has the U.S. economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the U.S. is soon to catch down?
Bond Traders Face 2025 Amid Most Agonizing Easing in Decades
Bond traders have rarely suffered so much from a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Now they fear 2025 threatens more of the same.
America Needs to Break Its Debt Addiction — Crisis or Not
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
How to Manage Taxes in Direct Indexing Portfolios
In an actively managed portfolio, there’s no way to escape capital gains taxes altogether. But understanding the importance of tax efficiency is crucial to long-term success for investors and advisors.
Wall Street Needs to Prepare for an AI Winter
Surely one of the silliest things that happened in tech stocks in 2024 was the sudden tumble in Nvidia Corp. shares moments after its fiscal second-quarter earnings release in August.
In an Uncertain World, There’s 1 Sure Thing
Taxes are on my mind. Do I factor in whether a dividend is considered qualified or ordinary when making my recommendations?
Don’t Forget About Growth!
A conversation with our stock selection team, part two.
The Federal Reserve Should Wait Before Cutting Again
Investors see recent inflation data as a green light for the Federal Reserve to trim another quarter point from the short-term interest rate.
VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF (VFLO)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF (VFLO) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Demanding Energy
Energy is everything. Or, if Einstein was right, you and I are just energy in material form. Accelerate us to lightspeed squared and we might become something else.