Join Michael O'Shea as he explores how private real estate investments can enhance your approach to generating sustainable, tax-advantaged income.
The investment teams at Man Group and KraneShares have developed a liquid alternative that attempts to solve issues with conventional private equity funds by bringing PE-return drivers to a public equity ETF. Join them for an educational webcast exploring liquid private equity, return drivers, and how to use ETFs to gain exposure to liquid private equity.
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
Everyone should have access to a quality retirement plan. That should not be a radical statement. People deserve to age with dignity and not worry about outliving their savings or paying for necessities like shelter and food.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4th, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of January 31st, it was 4.54%.
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Boeing Co. reported on Tuesday that it burned through $14 billion of cash in 2024 and is likely to post negative cash flow this year as well. Regardless, its shares jumped as much as 7.6%.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed restrictions on large financial firms buying homes, and state legislators in Virginia and Nebraska have similar ideas.
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, a few months out of prison and worth $70 billion thanks to the relentless crypto rally, is turning the former venture capital arm of his Binance Holdings Ltd. into a family office.
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is at $899.168 billion, the highest level since December 2021. Margin debt was up 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) and up 28.3% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was up 0.9% MoM and up 24.7% YoY.
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
An exchange-traded fund from a relatively unknown shop is catching the attention of online traders and gathering flows after investing in Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
Alternative Investments
Optimizing Portfolios with Tax-Efficient Income Strategies Through Private Real Estate
Join Michael O'Shea as he explores how private real estate investments can enhance your approach to generating sustainable, tax-advantaged income.
Capturing Private Equity Return Drivers
The investment teams at Man Group and KraneShares have developed a liquid alternative that attempts to solve issues with conventional private equity funds by bringing PE-return drivers to a public equity ETF. Join them for an educational webcast exploring liquid private equity, return drivers, and how to use ETFs to gain exposure to liquid private equity.
Here We Go Again: Merton Share and Why I Don’t Use Retirement Calculators
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
The Hot Money in Commodities Is Betting on the Tropics
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
Robinhood IRA Match Can’t Take the Place of a 401(k)
Everyone should have access to a quality retirement plan. That should not be a radical statement. People deserve to age with dignity and not worry about outliving their savings or paying for necessities like shelter and food.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
A Historical Look at Tariffs
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
Private Equity and 401(k)s Aren’t a Great Match
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: January 2025
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - January 2025
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4th, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of January 31st, it was 4.54%.
Amazon Cloud Needs to Deliver After Microsoft, Alphabet Misses
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
‘Debanking’ Dispute Highlights a Real Problem
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Why a Firming in the CPI May be Closer Than You Think
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Macquarie Shuts US Debt Capital Markets in Private Credit Pivot
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Gold Hits Fresh Record on Haven Demand as Tightness Persists
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Fed Holds Steady: No News Is Good News
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
QuantStreet February 2025 Letter: More of the Same
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: January 2025
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Raises Record From Private Wealth as Credit Grows
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
US Exceptionalism Is the Only Game in Town
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
Better Together: Why Cities Are Man’s Greatest Invention and How We Could Fix them
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Growth, Inflation & Confidence Amid Market Volatility
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
Meme Coins Do Not Create Wealth, They Destroy It
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Quarterly Market Commentary – January 2025
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
China Seeks Wiggle Room for Growth in Year of the Snake
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
2025 International Outlook
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Signs of Strength & Softness
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Boeing’s Rosy Outlook Negates the Need for a Fire Sale
Boeing Co. reported on Tuesday that it burned through $14 billion of cash in 2024 and is likely to post negative cash flow this year as well. Regardless, its shares jumped as much as 7.6%.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China’s Transitory Rebound
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
Lutnick Says Trump’s Tariffs Will Restore US Economy and Respect
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
If Wall Street Wants to Buy More Houses, Let It
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed restrictions on large financial firms buying homes, and state legislators in Virginia and Nebraska have similar ideas.
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
The Opportunity Right in Front of Investors
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
DeepSeek Exposes Market Risk Hiding in Plain Sight
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Investors to Watch Powell’s Tone as Market Teeters
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Durable Goods Orders: December 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
Markets Resilient Amid Historic Week and Fed Meeting in Focus
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
Pay Close Attention to the Fed Chairman's Press Conference
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
DeepSeek Shows Silicon Valley’s Huge Blindspot on AI
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
New Home Sales Up 3.6% in December; Beats Forecast
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Navigating Earnings Season: Margins for Error
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
Tax-Slashing ETF Trailblazer Preps for a Fresh $5 Billion Haul
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
S&P 500 Sees Best Start for a President Since 1985
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Data Is the New Oil: How Snowflake Is Building AI's Critical Infrastructure
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
Fasten Your Seat Belts
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Crypto’s Richest Man Turns VC Firm Into Giant Family Office
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, a few months out of prison and worth $70 billion thanks to the relentless crypto rally, is turning the former venture capital arm of his Binance Holdings Ltd. into a family office.
Existing Home Sales Up for 3rd Straight Month in December
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
Margin Debt Up 0.9% in December, Hits 3-Year High
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is at $899.168 billion, the highest level since December 2021. Margin debt was up 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) and up 28.3% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was up 0.9% MoM and up 24.7% YoY.
Top 5 Issues Institutional Investors Should Be Thinking About in 2025
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Just How 'Rich' Is U.S. Credit?
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
Harvesting Tax Losses When Markets Keep Posting Positive Returns
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
Commodities: The year that was, the year that could be
Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
SpaceX Addition Spurs Flood of New Cash Into Little-Known ETF
An exchange-traded fund from a relatively unknown shop is catching the attention of online traders and gathering flows after investing in Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
2025 Market Outlook: Rational Exuberance?
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Hard to Handle: A Look at Hard vs. Soft Data
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.