Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell at a steady pace in January, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from December. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 17 in December to 15 in January.
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
Netflix Inc. shares soared to a record high on Wednesday after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
A rude surprise could be in store for the millions of Americans who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. If Congress doesn’t act next year, enhanced premium subsidies will expire by December, causing enrollees’ payments to increase by more than 75% on average.
AI has the potential to elevate industries by blending mechanical precision with human creativity. The key lies in balance: harnessing its capabilities while preserving the uniquely human touch that remains irreplaceable.
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.
The U.S. economy is experiencing a remarkable period of economic stabilization and growth
This has been a year of market highs, puzzling signals, and a few head-scratching moments.
The clouds hanging over Boeing’s operations finally appear to be clearing.
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
We are all familiar with this SEC-required warning that “past performance does not predict future performance.”
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns.
There has been a lot of talk about (in)efficiencies in government spending, both before and since the election. Much of the conversation has been driven by Elon Musk, who will co-head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, not an actual government agency). Musk has boasted he could find $2 trillion to cut from the federal budget.
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years.
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
We take an early look at how a new policy platform could factor into the US deficit and debt.
Our model, How America Spends, has been tracking the purchasing behavior of 135 million U.S. households since 2014. This model is not a black box – it is a data file representing the spending of 135 million households on goods and services since 2014.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 returned a staggering 104.6% from January 2023 through June 2024—more than double the broader index return
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Healthcare companies often grab headlines for their exciting drug innovations. But we think the focus should be on business fundamentals.
Recent data, early results, and a relatively firm economy point toward possible improvement in Q3 retail earnings as Walmart, Target, and other big-box stores prepare to report.
The housing market inderwent huge transformations in recent decades with the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis & the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mike Wirth became the king of Big Oil on Oct. 7, 2020. That was the day the chief executive officer of Chevron Corp. elbowed out archival Exxon Mobil Corp. to become America’s largest oil corporation by market value. It was the zenith of a honeymoon between Wall Street and Wirth.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: January 2025
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
Politics and Investing
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: January 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
Job Openings Drop More Than Expected in December
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
Better Together: Why Cities Are Man’s Greatest Invention and How We Could Fix them
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Chicago PMI Contracts for 14th Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
PCE Inflation Rises 2.6% in December as Expected
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
Q4 Advance Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q4 2024 GDP Advance Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
The Fed’s Latest Rate Decision: January 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
The Mother of All Bubbles?
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Activity Reaches Highest Level Since October 2021
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
New Home Sales Up 3.6% in December; Beats Forecast
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
Crucial Questions
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Existing Home Sales Up for 3rd Straight Month in December
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Fell at Steady Pace in January
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell at a steady pace in January, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from December. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 17 in December to 15 in January.
Can European Stocks Overcome Fallout From “America First” Agenda?
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
Netflix Shares Soar to Record After Huge Gain in Subscribers
Netflix Inc. shares soared to a record high on Wednesday after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
America's Driving Habits: November 2024
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in December, Lower Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Jumps to Highest Level Since April 2021
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
Real Middle Class Wages as of December 2024
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines in January
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Increased Less Than Expected in December
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
Trade Balance Jumps 6.2% in November
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
The Rules Of Bob Farrell – An Updated Illustrated Guide
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
Muni Bonds in a New Interest Rate Regime
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Regulation, Deals and Crypto: Fintech Themes to Watch in 2025
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
A Look Behind the Gaslight Curtain: Optimistic Assumptions Underlie 2025 Market Forecasts
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
The Popular Rise of Lifetime Income on Annuities
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
In American Debt We Trust — But for How Long?
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
2025 Economic & Market Outlook: Turning the Page
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
Obamacare Is More Popular and Costlier Than Ever
A rude surprise could be in store for the millions of Americans who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. If Congress doesn’t act next year, enhanced premium subsidies will expire by December, causing enrollees’ payments to increase by more than 75% on average.
Embracing AI Can Help RIAs Transform Their Practices
AI has the potential to elevate industries by blending mechanical precision with human creativity. The key lies in balance: harnessing its capabilities while preserving the uniquely human touch that remains irreplaceable.
America Needs to Break Its Debt Addiction — Crisis or Not
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
Top Five Surprises for 2025
Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.
The Beat Goes On
The U.S. economy is experiencing a remarkable period of economic stabilization and growth
Five Charts for 2025
This has been a year of market highs, puzzling signals, and a few head-scratching moments.
Boeing Resumes Production as the Airline Industry Prepares for a Record-Breaking 2025
The clouds hanging over Boeing’s operations finally appear to be clearing.
Does Bitcoin at $100,000 Signal a Last Laugh for HODLers?
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
Watching China’s Economic Miracle (and Relevance) Fade Before Our Eyes
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
The Shifting Landscape of Commercial Real Estate
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Turning the Corner? Commercial Real Estate Themes for 2025
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
The Greatest Scourge in Factorland: Revaluation Alpha = Fake Alpha (JPM Series)
We are all familiar with this SEC-required warning that “past performance does not predict future performance.”
When Will the “Bill” Come Due?
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
Health-Care Spending Is Sinking the Federal Budget
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
Opportunities in Biotechnology Will Follow Advancements in the Science
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
Investment Banks Will Lose Billions of Dollars to Private Rivals
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
Credit Spreads: The Markets Early Warning Indicators
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns.
Looking For Efficiencies in Government Spending: Look Elsewhere
There has been a lot of talk about (in)efficiencies in government spending, both before and since the election. Much of the conversation has been driven by Elon Musk, who will co-head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, not an actual government agency). Musk has boasted he could find $2 trillion to cut from the federal budget.
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years.
Trump Is Making the 60/40 Portfolio Great Again
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
Fiscal Futures: Gauging the Potential Impact of Post-Election US Policy
We take an early look at how a new policy platform could factor into the US deficit and debt.
How America Spends: A Macroeconomic Inflation Model
Our model, How America Spends, has been tracking the purchasing behavior of 135 million U.S. households since 2014. This model is not a black box – it is a data file representing the spending of 135 million households on goods and services since 2014.
How Trump’s Second Term Could Impact Defense and Cybersecurity Spending
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
What Happens After the Top 10 Stocks Outperform?
The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 returned a staggering 104.6% from January 2023 through June 2024—more than double the broader index return
China Trade War Is One Trump Doesn’t Have to Fight
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Why Healthcare Investors Shouldn’t Bank on Drug Pipelines
Healthcare companies often grab headlines for their exciting drug innovations. But we think the focus should be on business fundamentals.
Optimism Improves Ahead of Q3 Retail Earnings
Recent data, early results, and a relatively firm economy point toward possible improvement in Q3 retail earnings as Walmart, Target, and other big-box stores prepare to report.
The U.S. Housing Market: Challenges and Solutions
The housing market inderwent huge transformations in recent decades with the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis & the COVID-19 pandemic.
Can Chevron Win Back Wall Street in 2025?
Mike Wirth became the king of Big Oil on Oct. 7, 2020. That was the day the chief executive officer of Chevron Corp. elbowed out archival Exxon Mobil Corp. to become America’s largest oil corporation by market value. It was the zenith of a honeymoon between Wall Street and Wirth.