Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 16, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 22.61%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.42% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 7.45%.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed job openings unexpectedly rose in April, with vacancies increasing to 7.391 million. This marked the first monthly increase since January and was higher than the expected 7.110 million openings. Additionally, hires and layoffs increased, while quits declined.
One thing just about everyone will tell you about divorce is that it’s expensive. There are several reasons for that, chiefly the lack of education and awareness and the habitual use of lawyers rather than mediators.
Most of us are facing longer working lives, but that also means we need to remain healthier for longer. While linking the pensionable threshold to improving longevity is fair, up to a point...
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.0.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further, hit by interest-rate cuts, slowing economic growth and President Donald Trump’s trade and tax policies.
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
Assessment and selection of covered call funds is based on criteria like total return, distribution rate (sometimes referred to as yield), and fees.
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. This video provides an update on FINRA's margin debt with data through April 2025.
Residential mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are a big part of the securitized investment market. Here's what to know about MBS investing.
While official estimates remain fluid and subject to change, our preliminary analysis at the time of this writing suggests that the House Reconciliation Proposal could significantly increase the national debt over the next decade.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.
Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.
Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.
New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.
Tariffs have long been part of U.S. economic policy, but big changes can disrupt markets and trade. Here's a quick overview of some questions investors may have.
When CFRA’s Paige Meyer slapped a “sell” rating on UnitedHealth Group Inc. in February, she was the lone analyst out of 30 tracked by Bloomberg with a negative view of the company.
Debt collectors have been unpopular since ancient times, but they play a necessary role in the lending lifecycle. Their jobs are not easy: I recall one collector noting that there are few ways to communicate with defaulted borrowers.
This is the story of how we got to a moment in history defined by global and national crises. It is the story about how a radical geopolitical transition is taking place as old socio-economic and institutional cycles in the US end and new ones begin.
A rushed exit from conservatorship could increase mortgage rates and worsen home affordability.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are weighing changes to key parts of the framework that guides their monetary policy decisions, including how they think about shortfalls in US employment and approach their inflation target.
By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Trend-following strategies can offer attractive, positively skewed returns, with large positive outperformance often coinciding with large equity selloffs, thereby offering tail protection.
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
A key valuation metric touted by legendary investor Warren Buffett is signaling that equities are relatively cheap, bolstering the case that the sizzling rebound in US stocks has room to run.
Understanding and integrating resilience into investment strategies is not just prudent, it is critical for navigating the complexities of the current market landscape. In this article, I lay out seven key principles towards building resilient portfolios.
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
Ultimately, advisors should choose a rebalancing strategy that best serves their client’s needs without putting undue strain on their own operations.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies
President Donald Trump said he would “absolutely” sign a bill banning congressional stock trading, saying he was concerned lawmakers could be using insider information for an advantage.
Banking leaders and policymakers gathered for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings downplayed the prospect of a looming financial crisis, despite warnings that the US-led trade war threatens global market stability.
Recent volatility has pushed yields to historically high levels, potentially creating opportunities in municipal bonds, especially for higher-net-worth investors.
While gold has offered some protection during stock market downturns by either rising or declining by less than equities, its current high price levels and historical patterns suggest that future returns may be limited.
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Andrew Leigh is a very good storyteller, making “How Economics Explains the World” an easy and fun read. In the hands of someone unfamiliar with basic economic reasoning, it might lead them to pursue economics further. Even if you’re farther along in your economic education, we almost always benefit from relearning things we already know, but in a new light.
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
America's Driving Habits: April 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Supply Chain Messages About the Trade War
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
Bigger Than Tariffs
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Retail Sales Sink 0.9% in May, Worse Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
World Markets Watchlist: June 16, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 16, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 22.61%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.42% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 7.45%.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline in June
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Household Net Worth Q1 2025: The "Real" Story
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Will the Trump Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves?
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Why Steel Users Don’t Make More of a Fuss About Tariffs
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: May Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Fixed Income Outlook: Cool and Cloudy
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Trade Deficit Shrinks to Smallest Level Since September 2023
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
ISM Services PMI Contracts for First Time Since June 2024
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Strengthens in May
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise in April
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed job openings unexpectedly rose in April, with vacancies increasing to 7.391 million. This marked the first monthly increase since January and was higher than the expected 7.110 million openings. Additionally, hires and layoffs increased, while quits declined.
Consider a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst to Save Money During Your Divorce
One thing just about everyone will tell you about divorce is that it’s expensive. There are several reasons for that, chiefly the lack of education and awareness and the habitual use of lawyers rather than mediators.
Working Until 70 Isn’t so Bad Provided you Feel 55
Most of us are facing longer working lives, but that also means we need to remain healthier for longer. While linking the pensionable threshold to improving longevity is fair, up to a point...
P/E10 and Market Valuation: May 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.0.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in May
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
Wall Street Sees Deeper Dollar Rout as Currency Nears 2023 Low
Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further, hit by interest-rate cuts, slowing economic growth and President Donald Trump’s trade and tax policies.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Picked Up in May
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
Three Drivers of Covered Call Fund Performance
Assessment and selection of covered call funds is based on criteria like total return, distribution rate (sometimes referred to as yield), and fees.
Credit Spreads: Under the Radar, but Influential
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
Chicago PMI Sinks to 4-Month Low
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.3% in April
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.7% in April
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% in April, Lowest Level Since 2021
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.
GDP Per Capita: Q1 2025 Second Estimate
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q1 2025 GDP Second Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
Pending Home Sales Sink 6.3% in April
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
Margin Debt: April 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. This video provides an update on FINRA's margin debt with data through April 2025.
Understanding Mortgage-Backed Securities Investing
Residential mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are a big part of the securitized investment market. Here's what to know about MBS investing.
The Big Beautiful Bill: Stimulus Now, Tightening Later
While official estimates remain fluid and subject to change, our preliminary analysis at the time of this writing suggests that the House Reconciliation Proposal could significantly increase the national debt over the next decade.
Consumer Confidence Sees Largest Monthly Increase in Over Four Years
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Conditions Continued to Worsen in May
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 3.4% Annual Gain in March
Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in March
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.
Existing Home Sales Inch Down 0.5% in April
Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.
New Home Sales Jump to Three-Year High in April
New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Contracted Slightly in May
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.
What is a Tariff and How Does it Work?
Tariffs have long been part of U.S. economic policy, but big changes can disrupt markets and trade. Here's a quick overview of some questions investors may have.
UnitedHealth Plunge Stunned Wall Street. One Analyst Saw It Coming
When CFRA’s Paige Meyer slapped a “sell” rating on UnitedHealth Group Inc. in February, she was the lone analyst out of 30 tracked by Bloomberg with a negative view of the company.
Student Debt Default Deluge
Debt collectors have been unpopular since ancient times, but they play a necessary role in the lending lifecycle. Their jobs are not easy: I recall one collector noting that there are few ways to communicate with defaulted borrowers.
How We Got Here
This is the story of how we got to a moment in history defined by global and national crises. It is the story about how a radical geopolitical transition is taking place as old socio-economic and institutional cycles in the US end and new ones begin.
The Future of the GSEs: Do No Harm
A rushed exit from conservatorship could increase mortgage rates and worsen home affordability.
Powell Signals 2020 Fed Framework Language on Chopping Block
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are weighing changes to key parts of the framework that guides their monetary policy decisions, including how they think about shortfalls in US employment and approach their inflation target.
Is the Coast Clear Yet?
By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.
Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q2 2025: Risks to Realities
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
Hate It or Love It: Sentiment's Message
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
For Students With College Debt in Default, it’s Time to Pay the Bill
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
Gridlock
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Walking the Tightrope: Trend Following’s Tricky Tradeoffs
Trend-following strategies can offer attractive, positively skewed returns, with large positive outperformance often coinciding with large equity selloffs, thereby offering tail protection.
Tariffs: Q1 Impacts and Q2 Negotiations
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Warren Buffett’s Favorite Valuation Indicator Flashes Buy Signal
A key valuation metric touted by legendary investor Warren Buffett is signaling that equities are relatively cheap, bolstering the case that the sizzling rebound in US stocks has room to run.
Seven Principles of Portfolio Resilience
Understanding and integrating resilience into investment strategies is not just prudent, it is critical for navigating the complexities of the current market landscape. In this article, I lay out seven key principles towards building resilient portfolios.
Gen Z’s Hole in the Labor Market Could Soon Grow
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Margin Debt: March 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
What Is the Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy?
Ultimately, advisors should choose a rebalancing strategy that best serves their client’s needs without putting undue strain on their own operations.
Home Ownership Rate Falls to Five-Year Low
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
Cutting Off Your Nose to Spite Your Face
In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies
Trump Says He Would Sign Bill Banning Congressional Stock Trades
President Donald Trump said he would “absolutely” sign a bill banning congressional stock trading, saying he was concerned lawmakers could be using insider information for an advantage.
Financial Crisis Seen as a Distant Threat at IMF Meeting
Banking leaders and policymakers gathered for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings downplayed the prospect of a looming financial crisis, despite warnings that the US-led trade war threatens global market stability.
Why the Tariff Rollout Spooked the Muni Market
Recent volatility has pushed yields to historically high levels, potentially creating opportunities in municipal bonds, especially for higher-net-worth investors.
Gold $5,000?
While gold has offered some protection during stock market downturns by either rising or declining by less than equities, its current high price levels and historical patterns suggest that future returns may be limited.
Margin Debt: March 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Is Economics About Everything? A Review of ‘How Economics Explains the World'
Andrew Leigh is a very good storyteller, making “How Economics Explains the World” an easy and fun read. In the hands of someone unfamiliar with basic economic reasoning, it might lead them to pursue economics further. Even if you’re farther along in your economic education, we almost always benefit from relearning things we already know, but in a new light.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
The Fed Can Use the “Alphabet” if Need Be
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
Billionaires and CEOs Bet on Cheap San Francisco Real Estate
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
Equity Outlook: American Exceptionalism Reexamined
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Ask Again Later"
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.