Join Michael O'Shea as he explores how private real estate investments can enhance your approach to generating sustainable, tax-advantaged income.
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Prepare for 2024 taxes by organizing forms, documenting charitable contributions, maximizing retirement savings and reporting rental income.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
While we may joke about spending it down to the last penny, chances are there will still be plenty left for you when all is said and done. We just don’t necessarily want to admit it.
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
In 2025, the SECURE 2.0 Act boosts retirement savings with new rules for higher catch-up contributions, auto-enrollment and expanding access to savings plans. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
Carol Tomé, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., is ripping off a Band-Aid in one excruciating shot of pain to fix the courier’s post-pandemic problem with depressed profit margins.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
The growth in US retirement assets offers potential opportunities for retirement plan advisors to likewise expand their business. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses growth opportunities in the retirement market and how to enhance client engagement.
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Equity markets are facing a variety of headwinds, but the economy remains strong, and we believe there will be ample opportunities to invest in attractively valued quality growth companies in 2025.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates, adding the central bank is pausing to see further progress on inflation following a string of rate reductions last year.
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
“Debanking” is about to get a lot of airtime in US politics, but be warned: This debate is a chimera. Crypto enthusiasts, culture warriors and banks all have dogs in the hunt, with each leaning on the others’ interests and narratives to advance their own.
Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed restrictions on large financial firms buying homes, and state legislators in Virginia and Nebraska have similar ideas.
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher.
Tax and spending cuts will face Congressional roadblocks.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.
Tax Planning
Optimizing Portfolios with Tax-Efficient Income Strategies Through Private Real Estate
Join Michael O'Shea as he explores how private real estate investments can enhance your approach to generating sustainable, tax-advantaged income.
Private Equity and 401(k)s Aren’t a Great Match
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Treasuries Extend Losses as Jobs Report Leaves Fed Path Intact
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Concentrated Stock Positions: High Rewards, Higher Risks – What to Know Before Betting Big on One Stock
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
More Secure 2.0 Retirement Enhancements Kick in This Year
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Active Managers Talk Bond Investing in 2025
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
Bessent Says Trump Wants Lower 10-Year Yields, Not Fed Cuts
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
‘Debanking’ Dispute Highlights a Real Problem
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Steady M&A Deals to Begin 2025, Disappointing IPOs So Far
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Early Planning Can Mean Smooth Sailing for Tax Season
Prepare for 2024 taxes by organizing forms, documenting charitable contributions, maximizing retirement savings and reporting rental income.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
An Early Look at the Implications of Tariffs and a Trade War
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
Red Dye, Wildfires, and Winter Storms in Wichita Have 1 Thing in Common
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
How Is China Dodging U.S. Tariffs?
The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.
Fed Holds Steady: No News Is Good News
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
In the Hunt for Income, It’s Wise to Broaden Your Horizons
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Mortgage-Backed Securities Don’t Need GSE Privatization to Deliver for Investors
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Traders Rush to Safety in Loan ETFs Again on Interest-Rate Pain
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
US Exceptionalism Is the Only Game in Town
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
Are Boomers Really Spending Their Children’s Inheritance?
While we may joke about spending it down to the last penny, chances are there will still be plenty left for you when all is said and done. We just don’t necessarily want to admit it.
Earnings Coming in Better-Than-Expected As Peak Season Begins
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
A Pivotal Week: Tech Shift, Fed Patience, Tariff Turbulence
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Northern Exposure
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme Coins Do Not Create Wealth, They Destroy It
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
Bessent Takes the Helm on US Debt Sales After Blasting Yellen
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
Vanguard’s Average Fee Is Now Just 0.07% After Biggest-Ever Cut
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
The Fed’s Best Bet Is Patience as Confusion Reigns
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Fed Holds Steady, Keeps Door Open to Future Moves
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Wait and See
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
SECURE 2.0: What’s New for 2025?
In 2025, the SECURE 2.0 Act boosts retirement savings with new rules for higher catch-up contributions, auto-enrollment and expanding access to savings plans. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
UPS’ Amazon Reduction Is the Right Move
Carol Tomé, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., is ripping off a Band-Aid in one excruciating shot of pain to fix the courier’s post-pandemic problem with depressed profit margins.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Extending the 2017 Tax Cuts Would Be Fiscally Reckless
For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Tariffs Dominate Earnings Calls With Firms Bracing for Fallout
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
2025 Outlook: Uncovering Retirement Opportunities for Advisors
The growth in US retirement assets offers potential opportunities for retirement plan advisors to likewise expand their business. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses growth opportunities in the retirement market and how to enhance client engagement.
We're Going Streaking
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
2025 Equity and Volatility Outlook: Is the US Equity Investor at a Crossroad?
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
2025 International Outlook
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
The Trends Set to Make Us Money in 2025
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Equity Outlook: Climbing the Wall of Worry
Equity markets are facing a variety of headwinds, but the economy remains strong, and we believe there will be ample opportunities to invest in attractively valued quality growth companies in 2025.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China’s Transitory Rebound
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
Insights From our Q4 2024 Economic and Market Review
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
Powell Says Fed Doesn’t Need to Be in a Hurry to Lower Rates
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates, adding the central bank is pausing to see further progress on inflation following a string of rate reductions last year.
Balancing Yield & Total Return
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
Leadership Perspectives: Managing a Successful Firm
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
Crypto Enters the Debanking Debate With a Weak Case
“Debanking” is about to get a lot of airtime in US politics, but be warned: This debate is a chimera. Crypto enthusiasts, culture warriors and banks all have dogs in the hunt, with each leaning on the others’ interests and narratives to advance their own.
How Trump Can Slash Red Tape and Enrich America, Too
Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.
If Wall Street Wants to Buy More Houses, Let It
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed restrictions on large financial firms buying homes, and state legislators in Virginia and Nebraska have similar ideas.
Market Review Q4 24
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Tariffs: A Case Study
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Can the Magnificent 7 Maintain an Upbeat Earnings Season
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
Are Return Expectations For 2025 Too High?
Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher.
Washington Gets to Work on a Budget
Tax and spending cuts will face Congressional roadblocks.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Pay Close Attention to the Fed Chairman's Press Conference
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
Why Non-Profit Investors Should Think Twice Before De-Risking
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.