Advisors continue to seek out diversified strategies to gain stable income this year. In addition to the growing universe of fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, there are other alternatives to consider.
With Morningstar’s recent categorization of these funds, having a firm understanding of how they work and how to differentiate them is critical for investors. Join the experts at Swan Global for an educational exploration of options-based investing.
Join the experts at VictoryShares and VettaFi for an in-depth exploration of FCF and how it can be used to maximize your portfolio’s potential.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
Consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since July, according to the preliminary February report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index fell by 3.3 points (-4.6%), dropping to 67.8 from January's final reading of 71.1, and is down 11.8% from a year ago. The latest reading also came in below the forecasted 71.9.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
There weren’t too many market observers who penciled in higher tariffs on Canada than on China, but that’s where things stood, at least for a few hours, before Trump struck a deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Prepare for 2024 taxes by organizing forms, documenting charitable contributions, maximizing retirement savings and reporting rental income.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
Technology stocks have been the poster child for growth in recent years. Other sectors deserve a closer look today.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 3, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 7.01%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a year to date gain of 6.24% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.92%.
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will go over PepsiCo (PEP) for Dividend Growth Investors while utilizing FAST Graphs, the fundamentals analyzer software tool.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
In 2025, the SECURE 2.0 Act boosts retirement savings with new rules for higher catch-up contributions, auto-enrollment and expanding access to savings plans. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
Carol Tomé, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., is ripping off a Band-Aid in one excruciating shot of pain to fix the courier’s post-pandemic problem with depressed profit margins.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
Smart Beta
Income Investment Strategy Symposium
Advisors continue to seek out diversified strategies to gain stable income this year. In addition to the growing universe of fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, there are other alternatives to consider.
From Niche to Necessity
With Morningstar’s recent categorization of these funds, having a firm understanding of how they work and how to differentiate them is critical for investors. Join the experts at Swan Global for an educational exploration of options-based investing.
Diversifying Mag 7 Concentration Risks with a Free Cash Flow Approach
Join the experts at VictoryShares and VettaFi for an in-depth exploration of FCF and how it can be used to maximize your portfolio’s potential.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
Consumer Sentiment Index Drops to 7-Month Low Amid Inflation Concerns
Consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since July, according to the preliminary February report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index fell by 3.3 points (-4.6%), dropping to 67.8 from January's final reading of 71.1, and is down 11.8% from a year ago. The latest reading also came in below the forecasted 71.9.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Politics and Investing
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
When Investors Own Canada and Don’t Realize It
There weren’t too many market observers who penciled in higher tariffs on Canada than on China, but that’s where things stood, at least for a few hours, before Trump struck a deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Concentrated Stock Positions: High Rewards, Higher Risks – What to Know Before Betting Big on One Stock
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
California Wildfires: Municipal Bond Investors Can Make a Difference
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
More Secure 2.0 Retirement Enhancements Kick in This Year
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of January 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
Bessent Says Trump Wants Lower 10-Year Yields, Not Fed Cuts
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
Amazon Cloud Needs to Deliver After Microsoft, Alphabet Misses
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: January 2025
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Unemployment Claims Up 11K, Higher Than Expected
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
Steady M&A Deals to Begin 2025, Disappointing IPOs So Far
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Quarterly Review and Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2024
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Early Planning Can Mean Smooth Sailing for Tax Season
Prepare for 2024 taxes by organizing forms, documenting charitable contributions, maximizing retirement savings and reporting rental income.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Magnificent Seven’s Slowing Growth Threatens S&P 500 Rally
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
Bessent’s Treasury Sticks With Yellen-Era Long-Term Debt Plan
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
Vanguard’s Record Fee Cut Puts Rivals BlackRock, Invesco in Tough Spot
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
An Early Look at the Implications of Tariffs and a Trade War
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
Red Dye, Wildfires, and Winter Storms in Wichita Have 1 Thing in Common
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
How Is China Dodging U.S. Tariffs?
The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.
Fed Holds Steady: No News Is Good News
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
Income-Producing Assets
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
In the Hunt for Income, It’s Wise to Broaden Your Horizons
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Mortgage-Backed Securities Don’t Need GSE Privatization to Deliver for Investors
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
Finding Growth in US Stocks Beyond the Technology Sector
Technology stocks have been the poster child for growth in recent years. Other sectors deserve a closer look today.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gasoline Prices Inch Down From Last Week
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: January 2025
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: January 2025
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
Alphabet’s Discounted Valuation Is an Antidote to Tariff Risk
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Raises Record From Private Wealth as Credit Grows
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
Vehicle Sales: January 2025
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
DeepSeek DeepSinks Bullish Exuberance
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
Earnings Coming in Better-Than-Expected As Peak Season Begins
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
Northern Exposure
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Growth, Inflation & Confidence Amid Market Volatility
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
World Markets Watchlist: February 3, 2025
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 3, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 7.01%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a year to date gain of 6.24% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.92%.
Bessent Takes the Helm on US Debt Sales After Blasting Yellen
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
Vanguard’s Average Fee Is Now Just 0.07% After Biggest-Ever Cut
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
Goldman Knows DeepSeek Affects the Future of Work
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
The Fed’s Best Bet Is Patience as Confusion Reigns
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Index Mania: On Top of the World
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Quarterly Market Commentary – January 2025
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Has Dividend King PepsiCo Finally Become Attractive For Dividend Growth Investors?
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will go over PepsiCo (PEP) for Dividend Growth Investors while utilizing FAST Graphs, the fundamentals analyzer software tool.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Fed Holds Steady, Keeps Door Open to Future Moves
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
SECURE 2.0: What’s New for 2025?
In 2025, the SECURE 2.0 Act boosts retirement savings with new rules for higher catch-up contributions, auto-enrollment and expanding access to savings plans. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
Fed Sees No Need to Hurry
Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
UPS’ Amazon Reduction Is the Right Move
Carol Tomé, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., is ripping off a Band-Aid in one excruciating shot of pain to fix the courier’s post-pandemic problem with depressed profit margins.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Contracts for 14th Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
PCE Inflation Rises 2.6% in December as Expected
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Apple’s Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek’s Emergence
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
Tariffs Dominate Earnings Calls With Firms Bracing for Fallout
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.