While the April 2 tariff announcements were more severe than anticipated, Vanguard’s active fixed income managers were well-prepared for the subsequent market reaction.
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavilyon sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
Rapid U.S. policy changes pose challenges for investors accustomed to a global financial system anchored in U.S. markets and assets.
The deferral of “reciprocal” tariffs on most U.S. trading partners suggests that the peak of tariff uncertainty may have passed.
Banks blew Q1 earnings expectations out of the water, benefitting from high trading volumes, but CEO commentary remains cautious for 2025.
If I had a dollar for every time I heard or read the word recession in the last week, well, I’d have enough not to be financially worried about one. Add a dollar for every mention of tariffs and I’d be comfortably flushed with cash.
Audiences worldwide turn to Netflix for escapism. Wall Street is doing the same.
Canadians poured a record amount into US equities in February, even as a movement to boycott US products and vacations gained momentum.
This month’s panic-driven selling across municipal bonds — fueled by the boom in ETFs — is proving a mixed blessing for investors in a normally sedate market corner.
One day doesn’t make a trend, but wary small-caps investors may find some comfort in knowing the Russell 2000 Index jumped 8.50% on Wednesday
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 17, 2025 at 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.81% and the 30-year note ended at 4.80%.
US critical minerals stocks have soared this week, getting a boost from signs that the Trump administration will favor a sector that’s become a flashpoint in the trade standoff between the US and China.
While we remain open to changes in market conditions, as well as periodic “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that can relieve the oversold “compression” produced by market losses, we are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.
Simply stated, the U.S. doesn’t save and invest enough. As a result, we pay for too many of our imports by borrowing from our trading partners.
US Treasuries fell, snapping three days of gains, as traders pared bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to keeping inflation in check.
Eli Lilly & Co. shares surged after data showed its experimental weight-loss pill worked as well as the Ozempic shot, bringing it one step closer to developing a needle-free alternative.
With Congress out for the next two weeks for Easter recess and a short trading week in New York, it should be a quieter week – though tariff-related news continues to capture headlines.
Covered call strategies have been around for a very long time, but covered call ETFs have recently enjoyed a massive increase in popularity.
One of the most volatile market weeks in years was sparked by tariff announcements earlier this month. President Donald Trump's 10% universal tariff went into effect on April 5th, followed by his controversial reciprocal tariffs on April 9th.
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
In this article, we examine everything from the yield curve to CAPE ratios to gain a sense of where we are, and where we might be headed next.
CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.
If there’s one thing investors have learned in recent days, it’s that there’s no way to guess what America will do next. With its on-again, off-again tariffs, the US administration has demonstrated a rare and reckless willingness to shock markets.
As homeowner insurance rates rise, advisors share ways individuals can create a financial safety net should catastrophe impact their homes.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
JPMorgan's Jon Maier spoke with VettaFi about active management in the ETFs space approaching investing in the current environment.
Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.
It’s always an honor for me to both attend and speak at the Barron’s conference. In thinking about this column, I am recalling many of the amazing presentations, great insights and fabulous speakers I heard.
Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.
If your business isn’t strategically managing its digital presence, it could be losing customers without even realizing it. The brands that master GEO and SEO today will be the ones shaping the marketplace of tomorrow.
A three-day rebound in US Treasuries will be tested on Wednesday as investors await commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as well as key data and a bond auction.
Technology stocks sank as new US government restrictions on the export of Nvidia Corp. chips to China and a disappointing report from ASML Holding NV dimmed the outlook for the semiconductor sector, wiping out more than $180 billion in market value for the two companies alone.
Delta Air Lines Inc. and the parent of Frontier Airlines recently yanked earnings guidance for 2025, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon saying that he expects “to see more of that.”
Now that the stock market has momentarily stabilized from the shock of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, investors have an opportunity to reflect on how their portfolio held up during the past two turbulent weeks.
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
Swedish firm EQT AB received more than $10 billion in investor commitments for its latest pan-Asia private equity fund, putting it on track to reach its fundraising goal despite the market volatility.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Navigating market volatility can be challenging for investors. Our Bill Cass shares several tax planning strategies to consider.
Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023.
While the US experiments with reordering the world’s trading system, uncertainty rises and volatility ensues. We are reminded of the delicate balance between safeguarding domestic interests and promoting a cooperative global trading system.
The announcement that LPL Financial will acquire Commonwealth Financial Network marks another major shift in the wealth management landscape—and presents a pivotal career moment for Commonwealth’s nearly 2,900 financial advisors.
Nick Goetze discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
As we write this, stocks have bounced back as Trump retreated from electronic tariffs from China. Nevertheless, this was a remarkable week for markets with Trump’s tariff policy taking center stage for market stress across stocks, bonds and currencies.
2025 has marked a striking reversal, with European stocks delivering exceptional returns that have handily surpassed US market performance.
The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.
SPY's recent surge of inflows showcases how advisors are using ETFs as crucial vehicles for navigating market volatility.
The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
After sinking nearly $2 billion into a triple-levered semiconductor fund last week, retail investors are enduring a volatile ride as the Nasdaq 100 swings between gains and losses.
US equities extended a rebound into a third session Tuesday as traders weighed the ongoing global trade war against a slew of positive earnings reports from Wall Street banks.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talked about the Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
Wall Street on Monday finally caught a respite from the deep selloffs and unusually sharp swings that have raced through markets ever since President Donald Trump unleashed his global trade war.
Bitcoin and its peers are speculative assets. They have value because enough people believe they do, not because they’re backed by a central authority or tied to any intrinsic utility.
This month’s roller-coaster ride through the markets has been more frightening than exhilarating for many Americans, who have more than $44 trillion invested in retirement accounts.
Portfolio rebalancing helps advisors uncover a new investment plan of action that aligns with a client's long-term financial milestones. It also considers how the current market will impact asset diversification.
A new cryptocurrency aims to occupy the final frontier of investor safety — cash that doesn’t lose purchasing power to inflation.
Some of the reasons, but not the only ones, why our trade deficits are so large is because government expenditures are too high and/or we are not collecting enough taxes.
The American consumer is tapped out. The savings buffer is gone, wage growth is declining, and credit costs are rising. Corporate America is already adjusting to this new reality, with companies issuing cautious guidance for 2025.
On Monday, April 7, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 4.7% at the session low before whiplashing higher on reports of a potential tariff delay—closing the day up 3.4% from Friday’s close.
We think it’s important for the Fed to move gradually. The US dollar has weakened lately, and, as a result, there is little case for a drastic loosening of monetary policy. The Fed could let up somewhat on bank regulations and capital requirements, which would help the struggling bond market.
Significant government policy shifts, particularly in tariffs and regulatory restructuring, have created uncertainty and volatility. We continue monitoring potential risks like inflation and recession while remaining focused on identifying profitable investment opportunities amidst these changes.
Swap spreads measure the difference between the interest rate on a swap and the yield on a Treasury bond with the same maturity.
Three of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 14, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.14%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 4.10% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.01%.
In a tumultuous environment, investors increasingly turned to actively managed bond ETFs this year according to JPMAM research.
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game.
Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.
Credit investors are looking to pounce on new opportunities resulting from the wild swings in global financial markets triggered by the US-China trade war.
Last week’s data can be summarized by a volatile market reacting to tariff news and a backwards-looking inflation reprieve.
After sparking the steepest plunge in financial markets since the global pandemic five years ago, President Donald Trump’s administration made another dramatic pivot in its trade war strategy on April 9: It paused for 90 days the “reciprocal” tariffs that had been in effect for less than 24 hours.
After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.
Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.
It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.
On 9 April, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “add-on” reciprocal tariffs on 50-plus countries that had been announced the previous week, precipitating a historic equity market rally and showing that there was seemingly a limit to how far he would go to move forward with his trade agenda.
Spending cuts, tariffs and recession risk—Jan van Eck’s latest outlook breaks down what to watch and why he’s focused on gold, bitcoin, semiconductors and India.
Vanguard head of U.S. ETF Capital Markets Bill Coleman discussed the growing role that active ETFs are playing in portfolios.
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold ¥90 billion ($628 million) of bonds on Friday in its smallest yen deal ever in a market rocked by an escalating trade war.
Getting into Donald Trump’s head is no easy task. And to the extent his economic intentions are decipherable and coherent, can Trump impose his economic will on other countries? As tariffs go into place, albeit with a partial pause, that remains to be seen.
Consumer confidence took another hit this month, primarily due to escalating worries about trade wars, inflation, and the labor market. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 50.8 in April, its second-lowest reading on record, surpassed only by June 2022.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, boosted by chaotic market moves set off by President Donald Trump’s policy announcements after he took office in January.
Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.4% month-over-month after a 0.1% increase in February. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Earnings season begins with companies adjusting on the fly to tariffs. This could give investors insight into strategies firms are taking and how businesses might be affected.
Taxpayers plan to use their tax refunds for essentials and debt repayment, as well as savings strategies. Bill Cass shares ideas and strategies to consider this year.
On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”
Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Q1 earnings season is about to kick off amidst what some might consider to be the most uncertain environment for US corporations since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Given the abundance of market uncertainty, it may be best to adhere to Treasuries, or for additional yield, to municipal bonds.
Income
Fixed Income Remains Key to Long-Term Diversification
While the April 2 tariff announcements were more severe than anticipated, Vanguard’s active fixed income managers were well-prepared for the subsequent market reaction.
2025 Muni Outlook: Stay Invested and Remain Nimble
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavily
on sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
Trade Wars and the U.S. Dollar
Rapid U.S. policy changes pose challenges for investors accustomed to a global financial system anchored in U.S. markets and assets.
Trade War Will Take a Toll
The deferral of “reciprocal” tariffs on most U.S. trading partners suggests that the peak of tariff uncertainty may have passed.
Banks Outperformed for Q1 but Strike Cautious Tone for the Rest of 2025
Banks blew Q1 earnings expectations out of the water, benefitting from high trading volumes, but CEO commentary remains cautious for 2025.
Are Dividend Cuts on the Horizon in 2025?
If I had a dollar for every time I heard or read the word recession in the last week, well, I’d have enough not to be financially worried about one. Add a dollar for every mention of tariffs and I’d be comfortably flushed with cash.
Netflix Defies Big Tech Slump as Wall Street Seeks Tariff Haven
Audiences worldwide turn to Netflix for escapism. Wall Street is doing the same.
Canadian Investment in US Stocks Hit Record in February Despite Trade Tension
Canadians poured a record amount into US equities in February, even as a movement to boycott US products and vacations gained momentum.
ETFs Highlight Ease of Trading in Three-Day Selloff for Munis
This month’s panic-driven selling across municipal bonds — fueled by the boom in ETFs — is proving a mixed blessing for investors in a normally sedate market corner.
Small-Caps May Yet Have Their Redemption Day
One day doesn’t make a trend, but wary small-caps investors may find some comfort in knowing the Russell 2000 Index jumped 8.50% on Wednesday
Treasury Yields Snapshot: April 17, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 17, 2025 at 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.81% and the 30-year note ended at 4.80%.
Critical Mineral Stocks Rally on Signs Trump Supports Sector
US critical minerals stocks have soared this week, getting a boost from signs that the Trump administration will favor a sector that’s become a flashpoint in the trade standoff between the US and China.
An Abrupt and Cascading Dislocation
While we remain open to changes in market conditions, as well as periodic “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that can relieve the oversold “compression” produced by market losses, we are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.
Why Tariffs Won’t Solve Our Trade Problem
Simply stated, the U.S. doesn’t save and invest enough. As a result, we pay for too many of our imports by borrowing from our trading partners.
US Treasuries Decline as Powell’s Hawkish Message Sinks In
US Treasuries fell, snapping three days of gains, as traders pared bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to keeping inflation in check.
Lilly Soars After Weight-Loss Pill Results Rival Ozempic’s
Eli Lilly & Co. shares surged after data showed its experimental weight-loss pill worked as well as the Ozempic shot, bringing it one step closer to developing a needle-free alternative.
Overall U.S. Tariff Level Still High Despite Exemptions
With Congress out for the next two weeks for Easter recess and a short trading week in New York, it should be a quieter week – though tariff-related news continues to capture headlines.
A Deep Dive into Covered Call ETFs
Covered call strategies have been around for a very long time, but covered call ETFs have recently enjoyed a massive increase in popularity.
Washington: What to Watch Now
One of the most volatile market weeks in years was sparked by tariff announcements earlier this month. President Donald Trump's 10% universal tariff went into effect on April 5th, followed by his controversial reciprocal tariffs on April 9th.
The Fed Can Use the “Alphabet” if Need Be
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
Do Indicators Point to Potential Further Stock Market Declines?
In this article, we examine everything from the yield curve to CAPE ratios to gain a sense of where we are, and where we might be headed next.
Domestic Drivers in Tariff Headwinds
CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.
The Financial Crisis of 2025? Better to Be Ready
If there’s one thing investors have learned in recent days, it’s that there’s no way to guess what America will do next. With its on-again, off-again tariffs, the US administration has demonstrated a rare and reckless willingness to shock markets.
Advisors Share Solutions for Rising Homeowner Insurance Costs
As homeowner insurance rates rise, advisors share ways individuals can create a financial safety net should catastrophe impact their homes.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
JPMorgan’s Maier Sees Paradigm Shift to Active Management in ETFs
JPMorgan's Jon Maier spoke with VettaFi about active management in the ETFs space approaching investing in the current environment.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Jump 1.5% in March
Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.
Key Conference Takeaways on Being a Better Manager
It’s always an honor for me to both attend and speak at the Barron’s conference. In thinking about this column, I am recalling many of the amazing presentations, great insights and fabulous speakers I heard.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Continues to Weigh on Builder Confidence
Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.
Competing in the Digital Age: How GEO & SEO Are Reshaping Your Brand’s Future
If your business isn’t strategically managing its digital presence, it could be losing customers without even realizing it. The brands that master GEO and SEO today will be the ones shaping the marketplace of tomorrow.
US Bond Traders Seek Cues From Powell on Next Move After Rout
A three-day rebound in US Treasuries will be tested on Wednesday as investors await commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as well as key data and a bond auction.
Nvidia Curbs and ASML Warning Spur Global Tech-Stock Rout
Technology stocks sank as new US government restrictions on the export of Nvidia Corp. chips to China and a disappointing report from ASML Holding NV dimmed the outlook for the semiconductor sector, wiping out more than $180 billion in market value for the two companies alone.
Baffled C-Suites Are a Fresh Hurdle for Markets
Delta Air Lines Inc. and the parent of Frontier Airlines recently yanked earnings guidance for 2025, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon saying that he expects “to see more of that.”
Now Is the Time to Ask: How Much Market Risk Can You Take?
Now that the stock market has momentarily stabilized from the shock of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, investors have an opportunity to reflect on how their portfolio held up during the past two turbulent weeks.
Billionaires and CEOs Bet on Cheap San Francisco Real Estate
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
EQT’s Asia Buyout Fund Gets $10 Billion, On Track for Target
Swedish firm EQT AB received more than $10 billion in investor commitments for its latest pan-Asia private equity fund, putting it on track to reach its fundraising goal despite the market volatility.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: March 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Six Tax Planning Ideas for Navigating Market Volatility
Navigating market volatility can be challenging for investors. Our Bill Cass shares several tax planning strategies to consider.
Looking at the Economic Data and Volatility in the Bond Market
Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023.
What to Expect From Equities in the New World Order
While the US experiments with reordering the world’s trading system, uncertainty rises and volatility ensues. We are reminded of the delicate balance between safeguarding domestic interests and promoting a cooperative global trading system.
Commonwealth Advisors On The Power Play In LPL Acquisition
The announcement that LPL Financial will acquire Commonwealth Financial Network marks another major shift in the wealth management landscape—and presents a pivotal career moment for Commonwealth’s nearly 2,900 financial advisors.
Volatility Is the Theme of the Moment
Nick Goetze discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Resilience or Recession? Markets on Edge
As we write this, stocks have bounced back as Trump retreated from electronic tariffs from China. Nevertheless, this was a remarkable week for markets with Trump’s tariff policy taking center stage for market stress across stocks, bonds and currencies.
From Magnificent 7 to European Revival
2025 has marked a striking reversal, with European stocks delivering exceptional returns that have handily surpassed US market performance.
Risk Management Amid Economic Uncertainty
The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.
SPY’s Trading Volume Highlights Advisor Enthusiasm Toward ETFs
SPY's recent surge of inflows showcases how advisors are using ETFs as crucial vehicles for navigating market volatility.
A Week of Whiplash
The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.
Upside Down(side): Markets' Wild Rides
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
Leveraged ETF Traders Endure Volatile Ride After Chip Bet
After sinking nearly $2 billion into a triple-levered semiconductor fund last week, retail investors are enduring a volatile ride as the Nasdaq 100 swings between gains and losses.
S&P 500 Rises as Traders Parse Earnings and Tariff Developments
US equities extended a rebound into a third session Tuesday as traders weighed the ongoing global trade war against a slew of positive earnings reports from Wall Street banks.
Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talked about the Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
Bond Rebound Relieves Markets Dazed by Week of Trade Turmoil
Wall Street on Monday finally caught a respite from the deep selloffs and unusually sharp swings that have raced through markets ever since President Donald Trump unleashed his global trade war.
National Bitcoin Reserve Makes No Financial Sense
Bitcoin and its peers are speculative assets. They have value because enough people believe they do, not because they’re backed by a central authority or tied to any intrinsic utility.
Social Security Is Protection From Volatility
This month’s roller-coaster ride through the markets has been more frightening than exhilarating for many Americans, who have more than $44 trillion invested in retirement accounts.
How Advisors Can Assist Clients in Rebalancing Their Portfolio Over Time
Portfolio rebalancing helps advisors uncover a new investment plan of action that aligns with a client's long-term financial milestones. It also considers how the current market will impact asset diversification.
Crypto’s Newest Stablecoin is Inflation-Linked Bond Alternative
A new cryptocurrency aims to occupy the final frontier of investor safety — cash that doesn’t lose purchasing power to inflation.
Why Don't We Fix the Fiscal Deficit? That Will Start Fixing our Trade Deficit
Some of the reasons, but not the only ones, why our trade deficits are so large is because government expenditures are too high and/or we are not collecting enough taxes.
The Consumer is Tapping Out
The American consumer is tapped out. The savings buffer is gone, wage growth is declining, and credit costs are rising. Corporate America is already adjusting to this new reality, with companies issuing cautious guidance for 2025.
Lessons From the Dip: A Gameplan for Market Chaos
On Monday, April 7, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 4.7% at the session low before whiplashing higher on reports of a potential tariff delay—closing the day up 3.4% from Friday’s close.
Time to Cut Rates
We think it’s important for the Fed to move gradually. The US dollar has weakened lately, and, as a result, there is little case for a drastic loosening of monetary policy. The Fed could let up somewhat on bank regulations and capital requirements, which would help the struggling bond market.
Muhlenkamp Quarterly Market Commentary – April 2025
Significant government policy shifts, particularly in tariffs and regulatory restructuring, have created uncertainty and volatility. We continue monitoring potential risks like inflation and recession while remaining focused on identifying profitable investment opportunities amidst these changes.
Notes From the Desk: Bond Trauma
Swap spreads measure the difference between the interest rate on a swap and the yield on a Treasury bond with the same maturity.
World Markets Watchlist: April 11, 2025
Three of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 14, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.14%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 4.10% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.01%.
Investors Turn to Actively Managed Bond ETFs in March
In a tumultuous environment, investors increasingly turned to actively managed bond ETFs this year according to JPMAM research.
The Q1 Stock Setback & Target Date Fund Investors — More of the Same to Come
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
Where Did I Put My Investments?
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
The Uncertainty Recession
You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game.
Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet
Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.
Oaktree, TCW and Sona Spot Opportunity in Market Turmoil
Credit investors are looking to pounce on new opportunities resulting from the wild swings in global financial markets triggered by the US-China trade war.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Tariff Swings, Inflation Relief in the Rearview, & Sinking Sentiment
Last week’s data can be summarized by a volatile market reacting to tariff news and a backwards-looking inflation reprieve.
What Does the Tariff Pause Mean for Markets?
After sparking the steepest plunge in financial markets since the global pandemic five years ago, President Donald Trump’s administration made another dramatic pivot in its trade war strategy on April 9: It paused for 90 days the “reciprocal” tariffs that had been in effect for less than 24 hours.
Tariffs Add Another Challenge for Investors to Consider
After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.
Fixed Income Tax Loss Harvesting: Realizing Losses No Matter When They Occur
Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.
Hard Turn on Tariffs
It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.
President Trump Blinks for Now, But Tariffs Remain High
On 9 April, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “add-on” reciprocal tariffs on 50-plus countries that had been announced the previous week, precipitating a historic equity market rally and showing that there was seemingly a limit to how far he would go to move forward with his trade agenda.
Q2 2025 Outlook: In the Middle of the 3% Reckoning
Spending cuts, tariffs and recession risk—Jan van Eck’s latest outlook breaks down what to watch and why he’s focused on gold, bitcoin, semiconductors and India.
Vanguard Details Demand & Opportunities for Active ETFs
Vanguard head of U.S. ETF Capital Markets Bill Coleman discussed the growing role that active ETFs are playing in portfolios.
As Tariffs Cloud Outlook, Municipal Bonds May Offer Opportunity
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Berkshire Yen Bond Deal Is Its Smallest Ever Amid Trade War
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold ¥90 billion ($628 million) of bonds on Friday in its smallest yen deal ever in a market rocked by an escalating trade war.
Tariffs Are the First Part of a Larger Project
Getting into Donald Trump’s head is no easy task. And to the extent his economic intentions are decipherable and coherent, can Trump impose his economic will on other countries? As tariffs go into place, albeit with a partial pause, that remains to be seen.
Consumer Sentiment Falls Further as Inflation Expectations Soar
Consumer confidence took another hit this month, primarily due to escalating worries about trade wars, inflation, and the labor market. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 50.8 in April, its second-lowest reading on record, surpassed only by June 2022.
JPMorgan Stock Traders Notch Record Revenue on Market Chaos
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, boosted by chaotic market moves set off by President Donald Trump’s policy announcements after he took office in January.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Unexpectedly Falls in March
Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.4% month-over-month after a 0.1% increase in February. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Tariff Two-Step: What to Watch as Earnings Begin
Earnings season begins with companies adjusting on the fly to tariffs. This could give investors insight into strategies firms are taking and how businesses might be affected.
Putting Your Tax Refund to Work
Taxpayers plan to use their tax refunds for essentials and debt repayment, as well as savings strategies. Bill Cass shares ideas and strategies to consider this year.
The U.S. Economy’s Trajectory Amid Higher Tariffs
On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”
Tariffs, Turbulence, and the Case for Staying Diversified
Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Ask Again Later"
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Q1 Earnings Season Mired in Uncertainty as Banks Begin Reporting Friday
Q1 earnings season is about to kick off amidst what some might consider to be the most uncertain environment for US corporations since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Treasuries & Muni ETF Options for Focusing on Quality
Given the abundance of market uncertainty, it may be best to adhere to Treasuries, or for additional yield, to municipal bonds.