There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
Despite still elevated domestic inflation, weak growth and inflation projected at target this year strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
Buried in a rote US Treasury survey released on the eve of the latest holiday weekend was a question that all of Wall Street wants the answer to: What’s the Federal Reserve’s plan once it’s done drawing down its crisis-era bond holdings?
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
In our view, active investors face opportunities to outperform created by looming policy changes and the macro landscape.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
When it comes to degrees of difficulty, this week’s Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up as a walk in the park compared to what awaits policymakers down the road.
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
As 2025 begins, the core narrative of global resilience (built throughout 2024) faces fresh uncertainties. Gradual rate cuts, a continued slide in inflation, and steady – if modest – economic growth could set the tone for constructive market performance.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
We still believe the odds of a recession are higher than most investors think. Monetary policy tightening started back in 2022 and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, which means the Fed will be reluctant to get loose anytime soon.
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.15 in December from -0.01 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from November and two categories made positive contributions in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was increased to -0.13 in December form -0.26 in November.
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
Bonds look attractive again after the most recent rise in interest rates. Markets are likely to continue to overreact to every new employment report and inflation reading, keeping interest rate volatility elevated as yields dance up and down with each data point.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way.
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.
As the industry matures, innovative operating models have emerged to address the diverse needs of both acquiring and selling firms. This analysis examines the primary models driving consolidation in the RIA space and explores their strategic implications for industry participants.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
As economists and financial market forecasters, we are constantly amazed at how so many people analyze, forecast, research, and discuss important topics without ever addressing the elephant(s) in the room.
In last week’s discussion with Thoughtful Money, I noted that we are becoming more “tactically bearish” as we progress into 2025. While we have remained primarily bullish in equity positioning over the last two years, several risks are now worth considering.
It is sometimes perceived that the Fed’s action changes all interest rates across the yield curve, but that needs to be put in perspective.
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
Buffer ETFs
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Politics and Investing
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Concentrated Stock Positions: High Rewards, Higher Risks – What to Know Before Betting Big on One Stock
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: January 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: January 2025
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Unemployment Claims Up 11K, Higher Than Expected
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
Why a Firming in the CPI May be Closer Than You Think
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
An Early Look at the Implications of Tariffs and a Trade War
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
Red Dye, Wildfires, and Winter Storms in Wichita Have 1 Thing in Common
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
ECB: Heading Towards Neutral
Despite still elevated domestic inflation, weak growth and inflation projected at target this year strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Income-Producing Assets
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
Mortgage-Backed Securities Don’t Need GSE Privatization to Deliver for Investors
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gasoline Prices Inch Down From Last Week
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Alphabet’s Discounted Valuation Is an Antidote to Tariff Risk
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
Job Openings Drop More Than Expected in December
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
Vehicle Sales: January 2025
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
A Pivotal Week: Tech Shift, Fed Patience, Tariff Turbulence
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Growth, Inflation & Confidence Amid Market Volatility
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
American Exceptionalism and the Markets
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Fed Holds Steady, Keeps Door Open to Future Moves
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Apple’s Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek’s Emergence
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
2025 Equity and Volatility Outlook: Is the US Equity Investor at a Crossroad?
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
2025 International Outlook
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
AI in Flux
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Signs of Strength & Softness
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Five Questions to Ask About Quality in Equity Portfolios
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
Balancing Yield & Total Return
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
Fed’s Balance-Sheet Plans Mystify Wall Street as Officials Meet
Buried in a rote US Treasury survey released on the eve of the latest holiday weekend was a question that all of Wall Street wants the answer to: What’s the Federal Reserve’s plan once it’s done drawing down its crisis-era bond holdings?
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Capital Markets Outlook 1Q 2025: Mind the Gaps
In our view, active investors face opportunities to outperform created by looming policy changes and the macro landscape.
The Opportunity Right in Front of Investors
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
The Fed Will Duck and Weave on Policy, But Not for Long
When it comes to degrees of difficulty, this week’s Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up as a walk in the park compared to what awaits policymakers down the road.
DeepSeek Exposes Market Risk Hiding in Plain Sight
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
Investors to Watch Powell’s Tone as Market Teeters
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
2025 Outlook: Balancing Resilience, Policy Changes, and Evolving Market Trends
As 2025 begins, the core narrative of global resilience (built throughout 2024) faces fresh uncertainties. Gradual rate cuts, a continued slide in inflation, and steady – if modest – economic growth could set the tone for constructive market performance.
Durable Goods Orders: December 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
Growth Continued in Q4
We still believe the odds of a recession are higher than most investors think. Monetary policy tightening started back in 2022 and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, which means the Fed will be reluctant to get loose anytime soon.
Why Non-Profit Investors Should Think Twice Before De-Risking
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Shares on Track for $1 Trillion Drop
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
The Three Forces Shifting the Investment Landscape
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Increased in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.15 in December from -0.01 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from November and two categories made positive contributions in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was increased to -0.13 in December form -0.26 in November.
Navigating Earnings Season: Margins for Error
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
Bonds Beckon with Higher Yields
Bonds look attractive again after the most recent rise in interest rates. Markets are likely to continue to overreact to every new employment report and inflation reading, keeping interest rate volatility elevated as yields dance up and down with each data point.
Not Time Yet for Stocks to Worry About Rising Rates
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Existing Home Sales Up for 3rd Straight Month in December
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
America’s Best Stock Picker Keeps Beating Passive Funds
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
Gardening Guide To Better Portfolio Returns In 2025
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way.
Top 5 Issues Institutional Investors Should Be Thinking About in 2025
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Harvesting Tax Losses When Markets Keep Posting Positive Returns
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: An Exploration of Evolution and Customization
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
Just How 'Rich' Is U.S. Credit?
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
2025 Market Outlook: Rational Exuberance?
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Yields Flashing Yellow
From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.
The Evolution of RIA Acquisition Models: A Strategic Analysis
As the industry matures, innovative operating models have emerged to address the diverse needs of both acquiring and selling firms. This analysis examines the primary models driving consolidation in the RIA space and explores their strategic implications for industry participants.
Q4 2024 Commentary: Defying Expectations, Embracing Optimization
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
The 60/40 Model and The Elephant in the Room
As economists and financial market forecasters, we are constantly amazed at how so many people analyze, forecast, research, and discuss important topics without ever addressing the elephant(s) in the room.
Tactically Bearish As Risks Increase
In last week’s discussion with Thoughtful Money, I noted that we are becoming more “tactically bearish” as we progress into 2025. While we have remained primarily bullish in equity positioning over the last two years, several risks are now worth considering.
Individual Bonds Benefit From Yield Curve Shift
It is sometimes perceived that the Fed’s action changes all interest rates across the yield curve, but that needs to be put in perspective.
Inflation Tames, Economy Gains: A Resilient Start to 2025
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.