Someday, the dollar will cease to be the world’s reserve currency. But don’t hold your breath waiting; there is nothing even close to being able to take its role.
Halfway through President Donald Trump’s 90-day freeze on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, a persistent gripe from businesses, consumers and governments facing them is severe uncertainty.
The market narrative appears to change on a dime these days. Stocks may have staged a comeback to recoup almost all their post-“Liberation Day” losses. But the bottom line on the fixed income market hasn’t changed all that much.
Trade pacts with America will not mean a return to the old normal.
The wise minds at Moody’s Investors Service finally acknowledged last week what the other two main credit rating agencies did years ago.
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to a four-week low, adding to evidence that the job market remains healthy in the face of growing uncertainty tied to trade policy.
Tariffs, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and other factors continue to feed into market uncertainty for even safe haven assets like Treasuries. As such, investors could be giving riskier emerging market (EM) bonds a second look.
Common sense and economic theory often collide. Take the stubborn belief that government stimulus spending and debt issuance reliably boost economic growth. It is a simple and seductive idea—when the economy falters, the government can step in, inject capital, and jumpstart growth.
The April Consumer Price Index (‘CPI’) report was released last Wednesday and gave the Federal Reserve another positive data point in its inflation fight, as did Thursday’s negative Producer Price Index (‘PPI’).
Last week I talked about the upward sloping Treasury yield curve, a welcome change from the inverted yield curve that lingered for years. The upward sloping curve means that investors are rewarded more for taking on duration.
As investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for the stock and bond markets. Let’s start with what Moody’s rating agency stated about its rating change.
Globalt remains conservatively positioned with an underweight in global equities, and neutral duration in fixed income.
Home values fell for a second straight month in April, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 12th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in nearly four years.
Stephen Hemsley never fully dropped the reins when he stepped down as UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s chief executive officer eight years ago. With the health giant in crisis, he’s taking back his old job – and confronting one of the toughest turnaround tasks any executive has ever faced.
President Donald Trump’s first overseas trip since returning to the White House is turning heads across the aerospace & defense and semiconductor industries.
President Trump’s tariff maneuvers sent financial markets on a rollercoaster. The shock from his aggressive trade policies triggered a surge in volatility, briefly pushing the VIX above 50 – an extremely rare event.
Macroeconomic and structural trends are finally moving in favor of emerging local currency bonds, after recent setbacks.
The geography of employment in the US is being shaped by two distinct trends. The first is low levels of housing churn and, therefore, interstate migration, a normal part of the business cycle that should eventually turn around.
Milton Friedman, Art Laffer and other market-believing economists had their long day in the sun during the 1980s and 1990s. Tax rates fell and government spending declined relative to GDP. But – ironically, in the long run, and long after he passed away – John Maynard Keynes got his revenge.
Recent revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reflect a sobering message: the world economy is entering a more volatile and fragmented era.
After Friday’s close, Moody’s downgraded U.S. treasuries, as S&P had 14 years ago, in 2011. I criticized the downgrade then…and I do now. The government cannot technically default, as the Fed can always buy the bonds for any auction.
The shareholder meeting began to be streamed about ten years ago, but that has had no impact on attendance. This is one reason why I think Buffett is at peace with the idea of no longer presiding at the meeting – people will still come to Omaha the weekend before Mother’s Day.
Given the recent market volatility and the possibility of an adverse wealth effect, it's worth quantifying the relationship between stock returns and economic activity.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
As markets rebound from a brief but sharp correction, Journey’s investment team reflects on the impact of tariffs, global diversification, and the evolving role of alternatives in investor portfolios. With caution as the theme, this month’s commentary urges investors to revisit risk tolerance and stay grounded in disciplined, long-term strategies amidst ongoing economic uncertainty.
Long-dated Treasuries fell on Monday as investor attention turned to the US’ ballooning debt after Moody’s Ratings stripped the nation of its last top credit rating.
Wall Street’s emerging-market faithful are finally seeing better returns after missing out for years as US stocks soared.
In a speech Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank’s five-year framework review will focus on the particulars of its maximum employment and stable price goals, as well as efforts to communicate clearly with the public.
One of the first and most promising uses scientists envision for the rapidly evolving technology of quantum computing is a new approach to drug development.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.
While April brought further welcome news on the inflation front, underlying consumer fundamentals painted a more concerning picture.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 16, 2025 at 4.43%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.98% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.412 million in April, the lowest level in almost a year. This marks a 4.7% decrease from March and a 3.2% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.361 million in April. This marks a 1.6% increase from March but a 1.7% decrease compared to one year ago.
The 90-day reduction on tariffs between the US and China is a positive development, but some questions remain.
529 plans provide tax benefits, estate planning advantages, and flexible education savings. Our Bill Cass explains how 529 plans can be part of an estate planning strategy.
We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.
After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.
Nominal retail sales in April were up 0.06% month-over-month (MoM) and up 5.16% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.16% MoM and up 2.76% YoY.
Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April showed consumer spending inched up last month, with head sales rising 0.1%. This comes on the heels of March's 1.7% surge in spending and was higher than the 0.0% forecast.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index rose nearly 22 points but remained negative for a second straight month at -4.0. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -11.3.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing May survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 1.1 points to -9.2. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -8.2.
Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in April, experiencing its largest monthly decline in five years. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.5% month-over-month after a flat reading in March. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
In the week ending May 10th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 229,000. This is unchanged from the previous week's figure and was consistent with the forecast.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are weighing changes to key parts of the framework that guides their monetary policy decisions, including how they think about shortfalls in US employment and approach their inflation target.
China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.
Are you trying to grow a stable team of advisors and retain top talent? Young advisors are looking for RIA firms that offer remote work flexibility, a clear path toward advancement and role transparency.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2025 close.
It can be tempting to react when someone at work criticizes you at work, but take some time to consider the issue before you do.
The agreement between the US and China to roll back their respective tariffs for 90 days has led to renewed optimism that the worst of America’s trade wars is over.
Assessing a bear market rally proves challenging when you experience it firsthand. It is only in hindsight that the complete picture reveals itself to investors. Of course, after a bear market rally, investors tend to review their investments and speculate on what they should have done differently.
The surprisingly large reduction in mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. announced early Monday morning has sent the markets flying. Trump has softened his approach dramatically and markets are expecting future deals. The base case: everyone at 10%, China at say 20% is still a jump, but at least will likely prevent a recession. Trade and tariffs remain the main focus for markets.
Commonwealth Financial Network®, a national RIA dedicated to providing financial advisors with holistic, integrated business solutions, has initiated a new partnership with Messina College, a two-year, all-residential degree program of Boston College that welcomed its first-ever class of students to the school’s Brookline Campus last summer.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for March puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.31%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 23rd straight month. Additionally, for a 3rd consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.97%.
Gas prices dropped to their lowest level in seven weeks. As of May 12th, the price of regular gas down 3 cents while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
Household debt increased by 167 billion (0.93%) in Q1 2025, reaching $18.20 trillion. The overall rise was driven by increases to student loan and mortgage balances.
While the U.S. and U.K. have different economic and regulatory landscapes, there are clear opportunities for the U.S. to improve retirement readiness by adopting some best practices from across the pond.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a fourth straight month, falling to 95.8 in April. Notably, the percent of small business owners who reported difficulty filling job openings fell to its lowest level since January 2021.
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing.
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
Financial advisors will be working with millennials and Gen Z, either as new clients or as family members of existing ones.
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
US stocks opened higher Friday as traders weighed comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that an 80% tariff on China seemed right, just as negotiations between the two countries are set to begin on Saturday.
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of April, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
Market Indicators
Death of the Dollar: An Eternal Tale
Someday, the dollar will cease to be the world’s reserve currency. But don’t hold your breath waiting; there is nothing even close to being able to take its role.
US Tariff Countdown Heats Up Race to Turn Talks Into Deals
Halfway through President Donald Trump’s 90-day freeze on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, a persistent gripe from businesses, consumers and governments facing them is severe uncertainty.
Engine of Active ETF Creation: Latest Flight of Fixed Income Offerings
The market narrative appears to change on a dime these days. Stocks may have staged a comeback to recoup almost all their post-“Liberation Day” losses. But the bottom line on the fixed income market hasn’t changed all that much.
A New Dawn?
Trade pacts with America will not mean a return to the old normal.
America’s Debt Problem is Also a Retirement Problem
The wise minds at Moody’s Investors Service finally acknowledged last week what the other two main credit rating agencies did years ago.
US Initial Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level in Four Weeks
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to a four-week low, adding to evidence that the job market remains healthy in the face of growing uncertainty tied to trade policy.
Skittish Investors Giving EM Bonds a Second Look
Tariffs, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and other factors continue to feed into market uncertainty for even safe haven assets like Treasuries. As such, investors could be giving riskier emerging market (EM) bonds a second look.
Stimulus Does Not Stimulate
Common sense and economic theory often collide. Take the stubborn belief that government stimulus spending and debt issuance reliably boost economic growth. It is a simple and seductive idea—when the economy falters, the government can step in, inject capital, and jumpstart growth.
Inflation Continues to Cool
The April Consumer Price Index (‘CPI’) report was released last Wednesday and gave the Federal Reserve another positive data point in its inflation fight, as did Thursday’s negative Producer Price Index (‘PPI’).
Growing U.S. Debt – Trouble Ahead?
Last week I talked about the upward sloping Treasury yield curve, a welcome change from the inverted yield curve that lingered for years. The upward sloping curve means that investors are rewarded more for taking on duration.
Moody’s Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?
As investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for the stock and bond markets. Let’s start with what Moody’s rating agency stated about its rating change.
Changing the World Takes Time
Globalt remains conservatively positioned with an underweight in global equities, and neutral duration in fixed income.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Near 4-Year Low
Home values fell for a second straight month in April, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 12th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in nearly four years.
The Man Who Built UnitedHealth Into an Industry Giant Now Has to Turn It Around
Stephen Hemsley never fully dropped the reins when he stepped down as UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s chief executive officer eight years ago. With the health giant in crisis, he’s taking back his old job – and confronting one of the toughest turnaround tasks any executive has ever faced.
Trump’s Gulf Visit Ignites Record Military Sales and AI Infrastructure Boom
President Donald Trump’s first overseas trip since returning to the White House is turning heads across the aerospace & defense and semiconductor industries.
Market Turnaround Raises Question: Where Do We Go From Here?
President Trump’s tariff maneuvers sent financial markets on a rollercoaster. The shock from his aggressive trade policies triggered a surge in volatility, briefly pushing the VIX above 50 – an extremely rare event.
The Growing Appeal of Emerging Market Local Currency Debt
Macroeconomic and structural trends are finally moving in favor of emerging local currency bonds, after recent setbacks.
The Next Great Job Churn Is Already Starting
The geography of employment in the US is being shaped by two distinct trends. The first is low levels of housing churn and, therefore, interstate migration, a normal part of the business cycle that should eventually turn around.
Does Anyone Care that Keynesianism Doesn't Work?
Milton Friedman, Art Laffer and other market-believing economists had their long day in the sun during the 1980s and 1990s. Tax rates fell and government spending declined relative to GDP. But – ironically, in the long run, and long after he passed away – John Maynard Keynes got his revenge.
Navigating the World of Tariffs: More Uncertainty, Slower Growth, & Investment Opportunities
Recent revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reflect a sobering message: the world economy is entering a more volatile and fragmented era.
Downgrades, Debt, and Durable Optimism
After Friday’s close, Moody’s downgraded U.S. treasuries, as S&P had 14 years ago, in 2011. I criticized the downgrade then…and I do now. The government cannot technically default, as the Fed can always buy the bonds for any auction.
Warren Buffett and the Berkshire Hathaway Paradox
The shareholder meeting began to be streamed about ten years ago, but that has had no impact on attendance. This is one reason why I think Buffett is at peace with the idea of no longer presiding at the meeting – people will still come to Omaha the weekend before Mother’s Day.
The Wealth Effect Is Not Always Virtuous
Given the recent market volatility and the possibility of an adverse wealth effect, it's worth quantifying the relationship between stock returns and economic activity.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Volatility, Valuations, and the Value of Staying the Course
As markets rebound from a brief but sharp correction, Journey’s investment team reflects on the impact of tariffs, global diversification, and the evolving role of alternatives in investor portfolios. With caution as the theme, this month’s commentary urges investors to revisit risk tolerance and stay grounded in disciplined, long-term strategies amidst ongoing economic uncertainty.
Treasuries, Dollar Fall as Moody’s Sharpens Focus on US Debt
Long-dated Treasuries fell on Monday as investor attention turned to the US’ ballooning debt after Moody’s Ratings stripped the nation of its last top credit rating.
Wall Street Banks Bet on Emerging Markets After Wasted Years
Wall Street’s emerging-market faithful are finally seeing better returns after missing out for years as US stocks soared.
The Fed Should Correct for Overconfidence in Its Review
In a speech Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank’s five-year framework review will focus on the particulars of its maximum employment and stable price goals, as well as efforts to communicate clearly with the public.
Quantum Computing Could Be the Future of Drug Development
One of the first and most promising uses scientists envision for the rapidly evolving technology of quantum computing is a new approach to drug development.
Better Tariff News, but Uncertainty to Limit Potential Benefits Near Term
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Schwab Market Perspective: The Tariff Effect
Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Relief Meets Consumer Woes
While April brought further welcome news on the inflation front, underlying consumer fundamentals painted a more concerning picture.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 16, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 16, 2025 at 4.43%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.98% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
Building Permits Drop 4.7% in April
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.412 million in April, the lowest level in almost a year. This marks a 4.7% decrease from March and a 3.2% decline compared to one year ago.
Housing Starts Inch Up 1.6% in April
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.361 million in April. This marks a 1.6% increase from March but a 1.7% decrease compared to one year ago.
How Does the US-China Trade Truce Impact our Market and Economic Views?
The 90-day reduction on tariffs between the US and China is a positive development, but some questions remain.
A 529 Plan Can be an Effective Component of an Estate Plan
529 plans provide tax benefits, estate planning advantages, and flexible education savings. Our Bill Cass explains how 529 plans can be part of an estate planning strategy.
Income Fund Update: Focus on Stability Amid Turbulence
We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.
Are We Half-Way to a Recession?
After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 0.2% in April
Nominal retail sales in April were up 0.06% month-over-month (MoM) and up 5.16% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.16% MoM and up 2.76% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Growing Uncertainty Drags Down Builder Confidence
Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.
Retail Sales Inch Up 0.1% in April, Higher Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April showed consumer spending inched up last month, with head sales rising 0.1%. This comes on the heels of March's 1.7% surge in spending and was higher than the 0.0% forecast.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in May
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index rose nearly 22 points but remained negative for a second straight month at -4.0. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -11.3.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline Modestly in May
Manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing May survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 1.1 points to -9.2. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -8.2.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Sees Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2020
Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in April, experiencing its largest monthly decline in five years. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.5% month-over-month after a flat reading in March. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Unemployment Claims Unchanged from Last Week, as Expected
In the week ending May 10th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 229,000. This is unchanged from the previous week's figure and was consistent with the forecast.
Powell Signals 2020 Fed Framework Language on Chopping Block
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are weighing changes to key parts of the framework that guides their monetary policy decisions, including how they think about shortfalls in US employment and approach their inflation target.
Goods Trade: Delayed Aggravation
China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.
Want to Build a Strong Advisor Team? 3 Ways to Retain Top Talent
Are you trying to grow a stable team of advisors and retain top talent? Young advisors are looking for RIA firms that offer remote work flexibility, a clear path toward advancement and role transparency.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of April 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2025 close.
Take a Breath When Unfairly Criticized
It can be tempting to react when someone at work criticizes you at work, but take some time to consider the issue before you do.
The China Trade Deal Doesn’t Solve the Fed’s Problems
The agreement between the US and China to roll back their respective tariffs for 90 days has led to renewed optimism that the worst of America’s trade wars is over.
A Bear Market Rally? Or, Just A Correction?
Assessing a bear market rally proves challenging when you experience it firsthand. It is only in hindsight that the complete picture reveals itself to investors. Of course, after a bear market rally, investors tend to review their investments and speculate on what they should have done differently.
Fed's Rigidity Risks Recession as Tariffs Start to Bite
The surprisingly large reduction in mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. announced early Monday morning has sent the markets flying. Trump has softened his approach dramatically and markets are expecting future deals. The base case: everyone at 10%, China at say 20% is still a jump, but at least will likely prevent a recession. Trade and tariffs remain the main focus for markets.
Commonwealth Partners with Messina College, Creating Career Paths for First-Generation College Students
Commonwealth Financial Network®, a national RIA dedicated to providing financial advisors with holistic, integrated business solutions, has initiated a new partnership with Messina College, a two-year, all-residential degree program of Boston College that welcomed its first-ever class of students to the school’s Brookline Campus last summer.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for March puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.31%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 23rd straight month. Additionally, for a 3rd consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.97%.
Gas Prices Drop to 7-Week Low
Gas prices dropped to their lowest level in seven weeks. As of May 12th, the price of regular gas down 3 cents while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
Household Debt Rises to $18.20 Trillion in Q1
Household debt increased by 167 billion (0.93%) in Q1 2025, reaching $18.20 trillion. The overall rise was driven by increases to student loan and mortgage balances.
Cross-Atlantic Retirement Readiness: What the U.S. Can Learn from the U.K.
While the U.S. and U.K. have different economic and regulatory landscapes, there are clear opportunities for the U.S. to improve retirement readiness by adopting some best practices from across the pond.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: April 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Uncertainty Continues to Drag Down Optimism
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a fourth straight month, falling to 95.8 in April. Notably, the percent of small business owners who reported difficulty filling job openings fell to its lowest level since January 2021.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.3% in April, Lower Than Expected
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q2 2025: Risks to Realities
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
World Markets Watchlist: May 12, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
The Storm Before the Calm
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
The Federal Reserve Reserves the Right to Change Its Mind
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Employment Data Confirms Economy is Slowing
While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing.
Barometer: Equities Set for Further Falls as Tariffs Bite
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
Fed Chair Powell Tells the Truth: "We Don't Know!"
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
You Can Run, But You Can’t Hedge
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Fed Holds Steady Amid Services Growth & Record Trade Gap
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
The Advisor’s Guide to Communicating With Gen Z & Millennial Clients
Financial advisors will be working with millennials and Gen Z, either as new clients or as family members of existing ones.
Increased Risks to Both Sides of the Dual Mandate
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
US Stocks Rise at Open as Investors Look Ahead to China Talks
US stocks opened higher Friday as traders weighed comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that an 80% tariff on China seemed right, just as negotiations between the two countries are set to begin on Saturday.
Wall Street Brings the Bitcoin-Versus-Gold Clash to ETF Masses
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
The Home Stretch: Seven Essential Steps For Pre-retirees
Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.
The Fed Is in a ‘Good Place’: But for How Long?
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Warns of Rising Risks
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
Mixed Signals on the Path Ahead for U.S. Economy
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
Awaiting Further Clarity
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Risk, Reward, and Rory at the Masters
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Fed Watch: Still Waiting
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
The 2-Faced Economy: Strong Data Amid Shaky Sentiment
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: April 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of April, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.
Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: April 2025
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Tariffs Will Be Bad, But They Won’t Cause a Recession
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: April 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Tactical Rules Move to Neutral
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.