The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
The latest employment report showed that 143,000 jobs were added in January, falling short of the expected 169,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%.
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4th, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of January 31st, it was 4.54%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Despite still elevated domestic inflation, weak growth and inflation projected at target this year strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
At the end of January, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index was 179% above its long-term trend, down from a record high of 186% in December.
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 3, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 7.01%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a year to date gain of 6.24% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.92%.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
DeepSeek didn’t come out of nowhere. But it seemed to catch Silicon Valley and global investors by surprise this week, to the tune of billions of dollars in stock market value.
For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Equity markets are facing a variety of headwinds, but the economy remains strong, and we believe there will be ample opportunities to invest in attractively valued quality growth companies in 2025.
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates, adding the central bank is pausing to see further progress on inflation following a string of rate reductions last year.
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.
There are times in life when factors conspire to make it very difficult to be as productive as we need to – and want to – be. But even in the midst of these times it’s important to feel like you have some control and do the things that will keep you on track. Control the controllable.
Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In January, the MCSI fell for the first time in six months to 71.1. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped for a second straight month to 104.1.
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of January 17, the index was at 21.934, up 0.234 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Market Indicators
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Employment Report: 143K Jobs Added in January, Fewer Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 143,000 jobs were added in January, falling short of the expected 169,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%.
Treasuries Extend Losses as Jobs Report Leaves Fed Path Intact
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
California Wildfires: Municipal Bond Investors Can Make a Difference
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
More Secure 2.0 Retirement Enhancements Kick in This Year
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of January 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: January 2025
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: January 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
Active Managers Talk Bond Investing in 2025
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - January 2025
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4th, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of January 31st, it was 4.54%.
Bessent Says Trump Wants Lower 10-Year Yields, Not Fed Cuts
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: January 2025
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Unemployment Claims Up 11K, Higher Than Expected
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
Quarterly Review and Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2024
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Bessent’s Treasury Sticks With Yellen-Era Long-Term Debt Plan
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
ECB: Heading Towards Neutral
Despite still elevated domestic inflation, weak growth and inflation projected at target this year strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
Fed Holds Steady: No News Is Good News
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
Gasoline Prices Inch Down From Last Week
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: January 2025
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: January 2025
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: January 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
Regression to Trend: S&P 500 179% Above Trend in January
At the end of January, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index was 179% above its long-term trend, down from a record high of 186% in December.
US Exceptionalism Is the Only Game in Town
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
Job Openings Drop More Than Expected in December
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
Better Together: Why Cities Are Man’s Greatest Invention and How We Could Fix them
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
Vehicle Sales: January 2025
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
A Pivotal Week: Tech Shift, Fed Patience, Tariff Turbulence
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
Northern Exposure
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Growth, Inflation & Confidence Amid Market Volatility
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
American Exceptionalism and the Markets
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
World Markets Watchlist: February 3, 2025
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 3, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 7.01%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a year to date gain of 6.24% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.92%.
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Meme Coins Do Not Create Wealth, They Destroy It
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Bessent Takes the Helm on US Debt Sales After Blasting Yellen
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
Goldman Knows DeepSeek Affects the Future of Work
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
The Fed’s Best Bet Is Patience as Confusion Reigns
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Quarterly Market Commentary – January 2025
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Fed Holds Steady, Keeps Door Open to Future Moves
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Wait and See
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Why Chinese Tech Keeps Surprising the West
DeepSeek didn’t come out of nowhere. But it seemed to catch Silicon Valley and global investors by surprise this week, to the tune of billions of dollars in stock market value.
Extending the 2017 Tax Cuts Would Be Fiscally Reckless
For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.
Chicago PMI Contracts for 14th Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
PCE Inflation Rises 2.6% in December as Expected
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
China Seeks Wiggle Room for Growth in Year of the Snake
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
2025 International Outlook
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
The Trends Set to Make Us Money in 2025
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Signs of Strength & Softness
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Q4 Advance Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q4 2024 GDP Advance Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Equity Outlook: Climbing the Wall of Worry
Equity markets are facing a variety of headwinds, but the economy remains strong, and we believe there will be ample opportunities to invest in attractively valued quality growth companies in 2025.
China’s Transitory Rebound
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
Powell Says Fed Doesn’t Need to Be in a Hurry to Lower Rates
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates, adding the central bank is pausing to see further progress on inflation following a string of rate reductions last year.
Balancing Yield & Total Return
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
The Fed’s Latest Rate Decision: January 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.
How to Say No to Unmanageable Workloads
There are times in life when factors conspire to make it very difficult to be as productive as we need to – and want to – be. But even in the midst of these times it’s important to feel like you have some control and do the things that will keep you on track. Control the controllable.
How Trump Can Slash Red Tape and Enrich America, Too
Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.
Tariffs: A Case Study
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: January 2025
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In January, the MCSI fell for the first time in six months to 71.1. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped for a second straight month to 104.1.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Remained Soft in January
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Durable Goods Orders: December 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of January 17, the index was at 21.934, up 0.234 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.