Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Everyone should have access to a quality retirement plan. That should not be a radical statement. People deserve to age with dignity and not worry about outliving their savings or paying for necessities like shelter and food.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Broadcom looks to build off last year's strength, which should give bullish traders another year of potential gains.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Investors are hungry for a piece of the US data centers powering the artificial intelligence boom, and a handful of initial public offerings expected in 2025 would feed that appetite.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
Bitcoin's closing price dropped below $100,000 this week for the first time in over two weeks. BTC is now up ~4% year to date. Here are the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 2/4/25.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
By now, almost everyone has heard about DeepSeek, the Chinese-made AI that has taught the US a thing or two about building cheaper artificial intelligence.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
We wrote this in the evening last night and with the news so fluid, there are further things we could add this morning.
“Debanking” is about to get a lot of airtime in US politics, but be warned: This debate is a chimera. Crypto enthusiasts, culture warriors and banks all have dogs in the hunt, with each leaning on the others’ interests and narratives to advance their own.
If OpenAI LLC were a listed company, Monday would have been a very bad day for the stock.
Microsoft Corp. and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek, according to people familiar with the matter.
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Oaktree Capital Group LLC co-founder Howard Marks says investors who made a fortune in the era of easy money should not expect the same strategies to deliver such exceptional returns in the future.
DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, has developed a model that can apparently answer questions as well as any chatbot in the US. It might even help answer a long-running question on Wall Street without being asked.
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
Pacific Investment Management Co. is among asset managers looking at buying a portion of $3 billion of debt tied to Elon Musk’s buyout of X, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
Bosses at artificial intelligence companies aren’t worried about the end of the world or the start of government regulations. Their biggest worry is more mundane: finding enough electricity to keep servers running at data centers.
As 2025 begins, the core narrative of global resilience (built throughout 2024) faces fresh uncertainties. Gradual rate cuts, a continued slide in inflation, and steady – if modest – economic growth could set the tone for constructive market performance.
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
Exchange-traded fund investors who placed record bets on the US technology space last week are getting crushed Monday as anxiety over competition from a Chinese startup’s AI model is hitting tech stocks hard.
Treasuries rallied on Monday as investors flocked to the safety of US government bonds after equities slumped in a selloff driven by technology shares.
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tumbled, following technology stocks lower, as the emergence of a new Chinese artificial-intelligence model triggered a global selloff in riskier assets.
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
What’s in store for stocks after two years of strong returns? Fundamental Equities Global CIO Tony DeSpirito assesses the prospects for another positive year and offers his year-ahead outlook through the lens of an active stock picker.
The fourth quarter of 2024 was not just a period of optimism and recovery but also one of reflection and recalibration.
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
A seemingly unstoppable flood of money has Vanguard Group Inc. on the brink of claiming a crown that State Street Corp. has held for decades.
In a small Texas city nearly 200 miles west of Dallas, the first data center associated with the $100 billion Stargate venture from OpenAI, SoftBank Group Corp. and Oracle Corp. is taking shape.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Meta Platforms Inc. plans to invest as much as $65 billion on projects related to artificial intelligence in 2025, including building a giant new data center and increasing hiring in AI teams, Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said Friday.
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, a few months out of prison and worth $70 billion thanks to the relentless crypto rally, is turning the former venture capital arm of his Binance Holdings Ltd. into a family office.
Sales of previously owned homes in the US rose for the third straight month in December, entering 2025 with some momentum after the worst year in nearly three decades.
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
As growth extends to more regions, we see expanding opportunities across countries and assets.
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way.
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Earnings season is in full swing. The bulk of the bottom-line boost is slated to come from financials, communication services, and tech.
A tech-powered approach to bond trading that helps firms move hundreds of securities in one go has just posted its best year yet.
Fintech
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: January 2025
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
The Mirage of More: Why Chasing Big Returns and Bold Bets Undermine Long-Term Success
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Robinhood IRA Match Can’t Take the Place of a 401(k)
Everyone should have access to a quality retirement plan. That should not be a radical statement. People deserve to age with dignity and not worry about outliving their savings or paying for necessities like shelter and food.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Broadcom Looks to Build Off Last Year's Strength
Broadcom looks to build off last year's strength, which should give bullish traders another year of potential gains.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Investors Eye Data Center IPOs to Ride AI Infrastructure Boom
Investors are hungry for a piece of the US data centers powering the artificial intelligence boom, and a handful of initial public offerings expected in 2025 would feed that appetite.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Concentrated Stock Positions: High Rewards, Higher Risks – What to Know Before Betting Big on One Stock
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Amazon Cloud Needs to Deliver After Microsoft, Alphabet Misses
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
‘Debanking’ Dispute Highlights a Real Problem
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
U.S. ETF Count Reaches 4,000 With Launches From Cohen & Steers, Thornburg & More
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Drops Below $100K
Bitcoin's closing price dropped below $100,000 this week for the first time in over two weeks. BTC is now up ~4% year to date. Here are the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 2/4/25.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
QuantStreet February 2025 Letter: More of the Same
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Alphabet’s Discounted Valuation Is an Antidote to Tariff Risk
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
US Exceptionalism Is the Only Game in Town
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
DeepSeek DeepSinks Bullish Exuberance
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
Earnings Coming in Better-Than-Expected As Peak Season Begins
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme Coins Do Not Create Wealth, They Destroy It
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
Goldman Knows DeepSeek Affects the Future of Work
I recently asked DeepSeek to model the impact of artificial intelligence on US labor productivity growth.
Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Meta’s Aggressive AI Bet Sets Up Stock’s Longest Gain Since 2015
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
Apple’s Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek’s Emergence
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
Credit Skeptics Place a $10 Billion Bet in High-Priced Market
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
We're Going Streaking
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
Q4 Tech Earnings: Will CapEx Take Bite of Profits?
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
AI in Flux
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
DeepSeek Calls for Deep Breaths From Big Tech Over Earnings
By now, almost everyone has heard about DeepSeek, the Chinese-made AI that has taught the US a thing or two about building cheaper artificial intelligence.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
What We're Thinking
We wrote this in the evening last night and with the news so fluid, there are further things we could add this morning.
Crypto Enters the Debanking Debate With a Weak Case
“Debanking” is about to get a lot of airtime in US politics, but be warned: This debate is a chimera. Crypto enthusiasts, culture warriors and banks all have dogs in the hunt, with each leaning on the others’ interests and narratives to advance their own.
DeepSeek Is Coming for Sam Altman’s Other Company Too
If OpenAI LLC were a listed company, Monday would have been a very bad day for the stock.
Microsoft Probing If DeepSeek-Linked Group Improperly Obtained OpenAI Data
Microsoft Corp. and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek, according to people familiar with the matter.
Market Review Q4 24
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Oaktree’s Howard Marks Says Don’t Expect Low-Rate Era to Return
Oaktree Capital Group LLC co-founder Howard Marks says investors who made a fortune in the era of easy money should not expect the same strategies to deliver such exceptional returns in the future.
Nvidia’s Stock Crash Solves a Wall Street Puzzle
DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, has developed a model that can apparently answer questions as well as any chatbot in the US. It might even help answer a long-running question on Wall Street without being asked.
DeepSeek Exposes Market Risk Hiding in Plain Sight
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
Pimco, Apollo Among Funds Looking at Next $3 Billion of X Debt
Pacific Investment Management Co. is among asset managers looking at buying a portion of $3 billion of debt tied to Elon Musk’s buyout of X, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Investors to Watch Powell’s Tone as Market Teeters
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
AI’s Electricity Demand Means Cool New Tech Is Coming to Boring Grids
Bosses at artificial intelligence companies aren’t worried about the end of the world or the start of government regulations. Their biggest worry is more mundane: finding enough electricity to keep servers running at data centers.
2025 Outlook: Balancing Resilience, Policy Changes, and Evolving Market Trends
As 2025 begins, the core narrative of global resilience (built throughout 2024) faces fresh uncertainties. Gradual rate cuts, a continued slide in inflation, and steady – if modest – economic growth could set the tone for constructive market performance.
Can the Magnificent 7 Maintain an Upbeat Earnings Season
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
How to Invest in Emerging Market Equities as New US Policies Bite
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
Markets Resilient Amid Historic Week and Fed Meeting in Focus
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
Bullish Tech Traders Made Record Wrong-Way ETF Bets Before Rout
Exchange-traded fund investors who placed record bets on the US technology space last week are getting crushed Monday as anxiety over competition from a Chinese startup’s AI model is hitting tech stocks hard.
US Yields Fall to Lowest This Year as Tech Slump Fuels Haven Bid
Treasuries rallied on Monday as investors flocked to the safety of US government bonds after equities slumped in a selloff driven by technology shares.
DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Shares on Track for $1 Trillion Drop
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
The Mother of All Bubbles?
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
Bitcoin Follows Tech Stocks Lower as New AI App Rattles Markets
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tumbled, following technology stocks lower, as the emergence of a new Chinese artificial-intelligence model triggered a global selloff in riskier assets.
The Three Forces Shifting the Investment Landscape
Three factors heavily influenced the financial landscape over the last 12 months — AI-focused technological optimism, hoped-for leveling up, and higher government bond yields.
DeepSeek Shows Silicon Valley’s Huge Blindspot on AI
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Crucial Questions
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Stock Investing Insights to Start the New Year
What’s in store for stocks after two years of strong returns? Fundamental Equities Global CIO Tony DeSpirito assesses the prospects for another positive year and offers his year-ahead outlook through the lens of an active stock picker.
A Rollercoaster Finale to 2024
The fourth quarter of 2024 was not just a period of optimism and recovery but also one of reflection and recalibration.
Tax-Slashing ETF Trailblazer Preps for a Fresh $5 Billion Haul
Four years after handling the first conversion of a hedge fund to an ETF, Wes Gray is gearing up to lead a surge of tax-busting deals aimed at investors big and small.
Futures, ETFs, or Physicals: How to Choose the Right Implementation Instrument
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
S&P 500 Sees Best Start for a President Since 1985
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Vanguard’s S&P 500 Fund Is About to Become World’s Largest ETF
A seemingly unstoppable flood of money has Vanguard Group Inc. on the brink of claiming a crown that State Street Corp. has held for decades.
Trump's Big AI Goals Start Small: 57 Jobs at a Texas Data Center
In a small Texas city nearly 200 miles west of Dallas, the first data center associated with the $100 billion Stargate venture from OpenAI, SoftBank Group Corp. and Oracle Corp. is taking shape.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Meta to Spend as Much as $65 Billion on AI Efforts in 2025
Meta Platforms Inc. plans to invest as much as $65 billion on projects related to artificial intelligence in 2025, including building a giant new data center and increasing hiring in AI teams, Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said Friday.
Crypto’s Richest Man Turns VC Firm Into Giant Family Office
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, a few months out of prison and worth $70 billion thanks to the relentless crypto rally, is turning the former venture capital arm of his Binance Holdings Ltd. into a family office.
US Existing-Home Sales Pick Up at End of Worst Year Since 1995
Sales of previously owned homes in the US rose for the third straight month in December, entering 2025 with some momentum after the worst year in nearly three decades.
America’s Best Stock Picker Keeps Beating Passive Funds
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
Multi-Asset 2025 Outlook: Expanding Horizons
As growth extends to more regions, we see expanding opportunities across countries and assets.
Gardening Guide To Better Portfolio Returns In 2025
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way.
Top 5 Issues Institutional Investors Should Be Thinking About in 2025
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Earnings Season: Big Roster of Tech Results Ahead
Earnings season is in full swing. The bulk of the bottom-line boost is slated to come from financials, communication services, and tech.
Wall Street’s Tech-Powered Bond Trades Hit Record $1 Trillion
A tech-powered approach to bond trading that helps firms move hundreds of securities in one go has just posted its best year yet.