Advisors continue to seek out diversified strategies to gain stable income this year. In addition to the growing universe of fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, there are other alternatives to consider.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
The latest employment report showed that 143,000 jobs were added in January, falling short of the expected 169,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%.
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
I know that dealing with someone who is irrational is next to impossible. Trying to show them how much their approach hurts others only fuels the fire and gives them more righteousness.
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
Technology stocks have been the poster child for growth in recent years. Other sectors deserve a closer look today.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
As an advisor and business owner, you need to realize you can create your own economy – an economy that you control and can leverage.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
The Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it’s not about to cut short-term interest rates again anytime soon, which is good news if you’d like to see the Fed live up to its goal of bringing inflation down to 2.0%.
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
US bond markets are flashing a warning to US President Donald Trump that his move to unleash tariffs on top trading partners risks fueling inflation and stymieing growth.
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will go over PepsiCo (PEP) for Dividend Growth Investors while utilizing FAST Graphs, the fundamentals analyzer software tool.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
Apple Inc. described its latest results as its “best quarter ever,” but that’s only true if you stop reading near the top of the press release issued Thursday evening. Overall revenue may have reached record levels, but big questions lurk about large parts of the iPhone maker’s business.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
The growth in US retirement assets offers potential opportunities for retirement plan advisors to likewise expand their business. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses growth opportunities in the retirement market and how to enhance client engagement.
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Mutual Funds
Income Investment Strategy Symposium
Advisors continue to seek out diversified strategies to gain stable income this year. In addition to the growing universe of fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, there are other alternatives to consider.
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
MFS Brings Signature Bond Mutual Fund Strategies to ETFs
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Putting ‘Fixed Income’ Back Into Fixed Income: Cash-Flow-Matched Bond Strategies for Retirees
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
The Mirage of More: Why Chasing Big Returns and Bold Bets Undermine Long-Term Success
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
Here We Go Again: Merton Share and Why I Don’t Use Retirement Calculators
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Three Reasons Why It Pays to Be Active as a Muni Investor
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
Tactical Rules Turn Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
January’s Top 10 Articles Are an Educational Selection
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
Private Equity and 401(k)s Aren’t a Great Match
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Employment Report: 143K Jobs Added in January, Fewer Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 143,000 jobs were added in January, falling short of the expected 169,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%.
Treasuries Extend Losses as Jobs Report Leaves Fed Path Intact
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
Politics and Investing
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of January 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: January 2025
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Amazon Cloud Needs to Deliver After Microsoft, Alphabet Misses
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
Steady M&A Deals to Begin 2025, Disappointing IPOs So Far
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Why a Firming in the CPI May be Closer Than You Think
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Active Fixed Income ETFs Can Extend Momentum in 2025
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Magnificent Seven’s Slowing Growth Threatens S&P 500 Rally
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
Macquarie Shuts US Debt Capital Markets in Private Credit Pivot
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Vanguard’s Record Fee Cut Puts Rivals BlackRock, Invesco in Tough Spot
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
Lean on What You Can Control With Mean-Spirited or Combative Coworkers
I know that dealing with someone who is irrational is next to impossible. Trying to show them how much their approach hurts others only fuels the fire and gives them more righteousness.
An Early Look at the Implications of Tariffs and a Trade War
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
Red Dye, Wildfires, and Winter Storms in Wichita Have 1 Thing in Common
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
Income-Producing Assets
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
In the Hunt for Income, It’s Wise to Broaden Your Horizons
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
QuantStreet February 2025 Letter: More of the Same
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
Finding Growth in US Stocks Beyond the Technology Sector
Technology stocks have been the poster child for growth in recent years. Other sectors deserve a closer look today.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Create Your Own Economy, Zoom In & Grow Your Practice
As an advisor and business owner, you need to realize you can create your own economy – an economy that you control and can leverage.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: January 2025
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: January 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
Traders Rush to Safety in Loan ETFs Again on Interest-Rate Pain
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Raises Record From Private Wealth as Credit Grows
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
US Exceptionalism Is the Only Game in Town
The dollar and US stocks have benefitted tremendously from recent global portfolio inflows. As of June 2023, the latest data available, foreigners owned a record 17% of US equities.
Inflation, Tariffs, and the Fed
The Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it’s not about to cut short-term interest rates again anytime soon, which is good news if you’d like to see the Fed live up to its goal of bringing inflation down to 2.0%.
DeepSeek DeepSinks Bullish Exuberance
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.
A Pivotal Week: Tech Shift, Fed Patience, Tariff Turbulence
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
American Exceptionalism and the Markets
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme Coins Do Not Create Wealth, They Destroy It
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Bessent Takes the Helm on US Debt Sales After Blasting Yellen
After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department’s strategy for issuing federal debt, it’s now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he’ll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.
Vanguard’s Average Fee Is Now Just 0.07% After Biggest-Ever Cut
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
Bond Traders Warn of Inflation Shock as US Yield Curve Flattens
US bond markets are flashing a warning to US President Donald Trump that his move to unleash tariffs on top trading partners risks fueling inflation and stymieing growth.
The Fed’s Best Bet Is Patience as Confusion Reigns
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Quarterly Market Commentary – January 2025
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Has Dividend King PepsiCo Finally Become Attractive For Dividend Growth Investors?
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will go over PepsiCo (PEP) for Dividend Growth Investors while utilizing FAST Graphs, the fundamentals analyzer software tool.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Wait and See
Following 100 basis points in rate cuts through the back half of 2024, the Fed started 2025 with a pause, placing itself in wait and see mode for the foreseeable future.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Fed Sees No Need to Hurry
Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
Apple’s ‘Best Quarter Ever’ Leaves Much to Be Desired
Apple Inc. described its latest results as its “best quarter ever,” but that’s only true if you stop reading near the top of the press release issued Thursday evening. Overall revenue may have reached record levels, but big questions lurk about large parts of the iPhone maker’s business.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Meta’s Aggressive AI Bet Sets Up Stock’s Longest Gain Since 2015
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
Extending the 2017 Tax Cuts Would Be Fiscally Reckless
For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.
Apple’s Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek’s Emergence
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
Credit Skeptics Place a $10 Billion Bet in High-Priced Market
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
2025 Outlook: Uncovering Retirement Opportunities for Advisors
The growth in US retirement assets offers potential opportunities for retirement plan advisors to likewise expand their business. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses growth opportunities in the retirement market and how to enhance client engagement.
We're Going Streaking
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
2025 Equity and Volatility Outlook: Is the US Equity Investor at a Crossroad?
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
Q4 Tech Earnings: Will CapEx Take Bite of Profits?
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
The Trends Set to Make Us Money in 2025
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
AI in Flux
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?