Liquidity

Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.

Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.

It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.

On 9 April, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “add-on” reciprocal tariffs on 50-plus countries that had been announced the previous week, precipitating a historic equity market rally and showing that there was seemingly a limit to how far he would go to move forward with his trade agenda.

Spending cuts, tariffs and recession risk—Jan van Eck’s latest outlook breaks down what to watch and why he’s focused on gold, bitcoin, semiconductors and India.

The markets are in the middle of a historic decline. Not so much in the magnitude—while we are approaching a bear market, these happen fairly regularly—but in the speed of the drop.

On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”

Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.

Callable bonds make up a large share of the bond market—and introduce one more variable into the bond-investing process.

We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.

The recent market drawdown highlights risks of a concentrated S&P 500—and the case for diversification now.

We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.

The markets face a challenging path as tariff policies intensify economic uncertainty, yet opportunities persist for discerning investors.

If tariffs are imposed on gold and silver will their prices rise, fall, or stay the same? We explain facts and myths when it comes to gold prices and tariffs.

We examine the April 2 tariff announcement from President Trump, outlining key proposals and the potential implications for trade and market sentiment.

U.S. indexes suffered their worst day since the pandemic, hurt by Trump's massive tariffs that sparked recession fears. Almost every sector fell, with retailers and tech hard hit.

The stock market faces severe downside risk ahead, and the U.S. is constrained in the unsystematic monetary and fiscal expansion that both amplified that bubble and fueled record but wholly impermanent corporate profit margins. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy now faces an imminent recession, and if we fail to be vigilant, we, once united Americans, risk losing what is far greater and more valuable than money.

The combination of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation, combined with uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy, is keeping investors cautious.

Market volatility is likely to rise as investors digest the president's plans.

Since mid-January, a new political regime in Washington has shaken the geopolitical landscape and global markets. In this volatile environment, bonds have performed well, resuming their traditional role as ballast against falling stock prices and attracting strong demand from investors.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

The last time the dollar needed policy intervention was in 1985. The dollar was ascendant, and that put American exports at a disadvantage.

The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.

In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts explore various investment risks and opportunities, including the heightened demand for mezzanine financing, potential entry points for special situations investors, the limited competition for unrated asset-backed finance investments, and the growing need for specialized life sciences lenders.

Today I’ll try to cut through some of this fog and look at why the US has a trade deficit. As you’ll see, it is a built-in, necessary feature of our money. Plus, it is time to start watching for a recession. Let’s jump in.

While systematic investing often relies on models and financial data, Pozharny emphasizes that Bridgeway’s process is differentiated by its acknowledgment of unknowns and its method for adjusting ratings based on external events. The team grades stocks on a scale from A to F, with adjustments made when externalities—such as leadership changes, regulatory shifts, or geopolitical risks—threaten to undermine model assumptions.

Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss the AAA CLO ETF landscape and highlight the most important considerations for investors.

Since May 2020, inflation (CPI) has gone from a low of 0.1% to a high of 9.1% and back to 2.8%. It is no wonder why any investor might at least pause in this period of uncertainty.

The global economy is undergoing an unprecedented wave of industrial and infrastructure expansion, driving relentless demand for commodities across energy, metals and agriculture.

For taxable investors with sizable gains in their brokerage accounts, the decision when to realize that capital gain is intensely personal—depending of course on individual circumstances, while also factoring in market return expectations and the prevailing tax structure.

The time is right to let the Fed's balance sheet level off.

As policy uncertainty grows, we consider how tariffs and other government actions might impact inflation, interest rates, and market sentiment.

The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.

First, the market is rallying on news that the targeted tariffs that Trump is planning to introduce on April 2 may be more limited than initially feared. Let’s hope that is the case.

Whenever political questions arise, we always encourage a broader view: politicians don’t control the economy, and policy changes rarely move markets. But the past month has raised serious questions over that assertion.

Emerging markets offer the potential for long-term diversified investment returns but they can endure challenging periods of volatility and uncertainty. Head of Portfolio Strategy David Dali maps out the issues to consider when constructing and managing a portfolio for emerging markets.

The theme among so many writers seems to be “vibe shift.” And indeed, there is a concern the economy is slowing and may even be in a recession.

Investment-grade floating-rate notes prices tend to be more stable than their fixed-rate counterparts, so they may be worth considering during periods of volatility.

At their March meeting, Federal Reserve officials left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% and signaled further patience on rate cuts as they navigate greater uncertainty about the economic outlook.

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.

Muni issuers are generally sound, so cuts in aid would be felt but dealt with.

Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”

Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.

Value investing and emerging markets are not often associated with one another. Conventional wisdom says that emerging markets, with their rapidly developing economies and rising consumer classes, are naturally the hunting ground of growth-oriented investors.

One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.

Several indicators used by fixed income investors to measure value have recently taken a positive turn, potentially flashing an entry-point opportunity for investors with money to put to work.

A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view.

Policies to support mainstream crypto adoption are underway.

Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.