Investors are hungry for a piece of the US data centers powering the artificial intelligence boom, and a handful of initial public offerings expected in 2025 would feed that appetite.
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed restrictions on large financial firms buying homes, and state legislators in Virginia and Nebraska have similar ideas.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Bosses at artificial intelligence companies aren’t worried about the end of the world or the start of government regulations. Their biggest worry is more mundane: finding enough electricity to keep servers running at data centers.
Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Let's discuss the recent strong correlation between the appreciating dollar and rising yields, and the reasons for the relationship.
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
A seemingly unstoppable flood of money has Vanguard Group Inc. on the brink of claiming a crown that State Street Corp. has held for decades.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, a few months out of prison and worth $70 billion thanks to the relentless crypto rally, is turning the former venture capital arm of his Binance Holdings Ltd. into a family office.
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
It is sometimes perceived that the Fed’s action changes all interest rates across the yield curve, but that needs to be put in perspective.
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
Technical analysis is one of many tools we use to manage clients' wealth. While inconsistent, as with every forecasting model, it is the best means for quantifying investors' collective behaviors. Simply put, historical price and volume data provide a critical context for price levels likely to motivate buyers and sellers.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
On this episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG).
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
Although underlying fundamentals and company financial statements can be difficult to analyze, the general public can easily discern price movements and understand the primary objective—buy low and sell high.
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
The US banking system’s reserves, a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep shrinking its balance sheet, tumbled below $3 trillion to the lowest since October 2020.
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Chinese stocks posted their worst start to a year in nearly a decade as investors braced for economic uncertainties with weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and an anticipated hike in tariffs.
BlackRock Inc.’s iShares unit offers more than 1,400 exchange-traded funds around the world, yet none of them have performed quite like this.
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
A Bitcoin rally is fizzling in the final days of a record-breaking year for the digital asset, as investors assess the remaining impetus from President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of the cryptocurrency sector.
Tokenization, or the process of creating digital representations of real-world assets on a blockchain, has become one of this year’s buzzwords in both conventional and crypto finance circles.
The eclipse of the dollar, and with it the ability of the US to borrow on a scale that would cripple any other country, has been long predicted. For at least half a century, skeptics have counted on something — or someone — coming along to knock American assets from their perch. Don't plan for a requiem just yet.
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
The crypto market’s center of gravity is back in the US as 2025 approaches, courtesy of Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency and widening demand for the nation’s digital-asset funds and derivatives contracts.
It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong.
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Macroeconomic uncertainties prompted the Federal Reserve to signal a slower pace of policy rate cuts in 2025 and beyond.
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows.
With economic growth rising at a stronger rate than expected for this part of the cycle and inflation holding above the 2.0% target, the Fed appears more cautious about the need for rate cuts.
On Friday December 6th, the U.S. stock market pushed to the most extreme level of valuation in U.S. history
A BlackRock Inc. fund has bought municipal debt issued earlier this year in a first-of-its-kind deal that relies exclusively on blockchain technology.
U.S. stocks retreated as the Fed indicated it likely would lower rates only twice in 2025. The Dow dropped more than 1,000 points, and the S&P slid almost 3%. The Nasdaq lost 3.6%.
As cash yields dwindle, the case for fixed income becomes increasingly compelling.
As we approach the start of a new year, it is a good time to take a fresh look at your portfolio to ensure that it still aligns with your long-term goals.
In his 2025 investment outlook, Head of U.S. Fixed Income Greg Wilensky outlines the most likely scenarios for the U.S. economy and which asset classes he believes will be best positioned under each scenario.
Liquidity
Investors Eye Data Center IPOs to Ride AI Infrastructure Boom
Investors are hungry for a piece of the US data centers powering the artificial intelligence boom, and a handful of initial public offerings expected in 2025 would feed that appetite.
Quarterly Review and Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2024
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Gold Hits Fresh Record on Haven Demand as Tightness Persists
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
Income-Producing Assets
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Meme Coins Do Not Create Wealth, They Destroy It
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Fed Holds Steady, Keeps Door Open to Future Moves
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
2025 Equity and Volatility Outlook: Is the US Equity Investor at a Crossroad?
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
If Wall Street Wants to Buy More Houses, Let It
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed restrictions on large financial firms buying homes, and state legislators in Virginia and Nebraska have similar ideas.
The Opportunity Right in Front of Investors
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
AI’s Electricity Demand Means Cool New Tech Is Coming to Boring Grids
Bosses at artificial intelligence companies aren’t worried about the end of the world or the start of government regulations. Their biggest worry is more mundane: finding enough electricity to keep servers running at data centers.
Are Return Expectations For 2025 Too High?
Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
It's the Dollar, Stupid
Let's discuss the recent strong correlation between the appreciating dollar and rising yields, and the reasons for the relationship.
Futures, ETFs, or Physicals: How to Choose the Right Implementation Instrument
In mid-2023, the estimated costs to roll S&P 500 futures on a quarterly cycle was roughly 0.40%, or 40 basis points (bps) annualized—a fairly justifiable expense for most investors considering the benefits of the instrument.
Vanguard’s S&P 500 Fund Is About to Become World’s Largest ETF
A seemingly unstoppable flood of money has Vanguard Group Inc. on the brink of claiming a crown that State Street Corp. has held for decades.
Not Time Yet for Stocks to Worry About Rising Rates
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Crypto’s Richest Man Turns VC Firm Into Giant Family Office
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, a few months out of prison and worth $70 billion thanks to the relentless crypto rally, is turning the former venture capital arm of his Binance Holdings Ltd. into a family office.
Top 5 Issues Institutional Investors Should Be Thinking About in 2025
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: An Exploration of Evolution and Customization
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
2025 Market Outlook: Rational Exuberance?
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
No, Ray Dalio, There's Not a UK Debt Death Spiral
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Q4 2024 Commentary: Defying Expectations, Embracing Optimization
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Individual Bonds Benefit From Yield Curve Shift
It is sometimes perceived that the Fed’s action changes all interest rates across the yield curve, but that needs to be put in perspective.
Embracing Stock Market Stoicism
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Are California Fires a Risk to the Muni Market?
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
Is This What the Dr. Ordered?
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
Technical Analysis Is Not Voodoo, It Is Invaluable Context
Technical analysis is one of many tools we use to manage clients' wealth. While inconsistent, as with every forecasting model, it is the best means for quantifying investors' collective behaviors. Simply put, historical price and volume data provide a critical context for price levels likely to motivate buyers and sellers.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Bonds – The Dual Benefit
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Tariff Threats Boost Silver & Copper Prices
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Private Equity Does Not Belong in Your 401(k)
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
PMI Report Highlights: Inflation Pressures Persist Amid Services Sector Growth
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG)
On this episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG).
Examining the Case for Active Bond Investing
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Janus Henderson Takes CLO-Tracking Fund to Europe After US Win
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
5 ETF Predictions for 2025
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
Treasury Bonds: Riding the Range
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
Bonds Are Boring… and That’s a Good thing!
Although underlying fundamentals and company financial statements can be difficult to analyze, the general public can easily discern price movements and understand the primary objective—buy low and sell high.
2025 Year Ahead: Certainties for an Uncertain World
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
The January 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
Schwab's 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations
Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.
QuantStreet January 2025 Letter: Trump-Trade Reversal
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Tech Investing in 2025: Emerging Trends and Market Opportunities
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
Reserves at Fed Sink Below $3 Trillion to the Lowest Since 2020
The US banking system’s reserves, a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep shrinking its balance sheet, tumbled below $3 trillion to the lowest since October 2020.
Fixed-Income Outlook 2025: Fertile Ground
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
Muni Bonds in a New Interest Rate Regime
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Chinese Stocks Tumble in Worst Start to a Year Since 2016
Chinese stocks posted their worst start to a year in nearly a decade as investors braced for economic uncertainties with weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and an anticipated hike in tariffs.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin Fund Became ‘Greatest Launch in ETF History’
BlackRock Inc.’s iShares unit offers more than 1,400 exchange-traded funds around the world, yet none of them have performed quite like this.
High Hopes, Solid Grounds
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
Bitcoin Rally Fizzles as Token’s Record-Breaking Year Winds Down
A Bitcoin rally is fizzling in the final days of a record-breaking year for the digital asset, as investors assess the remaining impetus from President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of the cryptocurrency sector.
Tokenization Has Become Wall Street’s Latest Favorite Crypto Buzzword
Tokenization, or the process of creating digital representations of real-world assets on a blockchain, has become one of this year’s buzzwords in both conventional and crypto finance circles.
Dollar Dominance Is the Key to US Debt and Deficits
The eclipse of the dollar, and with it the ability of the US to borrow on a scale that would cripple any other country, has been long predicted. For at least half a century, skeptics have counted on something — or someone — coming along to knock American assets from their perch. Don't plan for a requiem just yet.
Reflections on 2024
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
Decoding the Fed’s Latest Meeting: Impacts and Insights
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
2025 Economic & Market Outlook: Turning the Page
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
Volatility and Opportunity
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
US Regains Primacy in Crypto Market on Trump Agenda, ETF Demand
The crypto market’s center of gravity is back in the US as 2025 approaches, courtesy of Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency and widening demand for the nation’s digital-asset funds and derivatives contracts.
Prediction For 2025 Using Valuation Levels
It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong.
Artificial Intelligence Doesn’t Appear Ready to Take Over the World Yet
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
December Fed Takeaway: A Foggier Outlook and a More Cautious Path
Macroeconomic uncertainties prompted the Federal Reserve to signal a slower pace of policy rate cuts in 2025 and beyond.
Financial Resolutions for 2025
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
Billions of Dollars, Bold Action: EMs Battle a Surging Greenback
From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows.
Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Projects Fewer Cuts Ahead
With economic growth rising at a stronger rate than expected for this part of the cycle and inflation holding above the 2.0% target, the Fed appears more cautious about the need for rate cuts.
Ring Out, Wild Bells
On Friday December 6th, the U.S. stock market pushed to the most extreme level of valuation in U.S. history
BlackRock ETF Buys First Muni Bonds Issued Through Blockchain
A BlackRock Inc. fund has bought municipal debt issued earlier this year in a first-of-its-kind deal that relies exclusively on blockchain technology.
Stocks Plunge After Fed Outlook Disappoints
U.S. stocks retreated as the Fed indicated it likely would lower rates only twice in 2025. The Dow dropped more than 1,000 points, and the S&P slid almost 3%. The Nasdaq lost 3.6%.
From Cash to Bonds: A Strategic Shift in Post-Pandemic Investing
As cash yields dwindle, the case for fixed income becomes increasingly compelling.
Allocation Check-In
As we approach the start of a new year, it is a good time to take a fresh look at your portfolio to ensure that it still aligns with your long-term goals.
Adjusting the Recipe: What’s the Right Mix for Balanced Portfolios in 2025?
In his 2025 investment outlook, Head of U.S. Fixed Income Greg Wilensky outlines the most likely scenarios for the U.S. economy and which asset classes he believes will be best positioned under each scenario.