The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
If OpenAI LLC were a listed company, Monday would have been a very bad day for the stock.
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Bosses at artificial intelligence companies aren’t worried about the end of the world or the start of government regulations. Their biggest worry is more mundane: finding enough electricity to keep servers running at data centers.
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
The fourth quarter of 2024 was not just a period of optimism and recovery but also one of reflection and recalibration.
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
Earnings season is in full swing. The bulk of the bottom-line boost is slated to come from financials, communication services, and tech.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told President Donald Trump he’s willing to expand investments and trade with the US in the coming four years by $600 billion, according to the kingdom’s state-run news agency SPA.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
VettaFi examines midstream EBITDA growth guidance for 2025 and future years.
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
President Donald Trump launched a sweeping overhaul of US energy policy hours after taking office Monday, putting the weight of the federal government behind fossil-fuel production and pulling back from the fight against climate change.
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Join the experts at SS&C ALPS Advisors and VettaFi for an educational webcast on January 9th at 1pm ET as they discuss the outlook for MLPs/midstream in 2025.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Energy is the star sector of the S&P 500 Index in the early days of 2025, shaking off two consecutive years when it was a market laggard, and gaining despite Wall Street’s dim outlook for oil and gas stocks.
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
US investment banks have little room for error in their upcoming full-year results.
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
The AI boom of the past two years has largely been a two-horse race. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp.-funded OpenAI have duked it out for customers, while Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. have nibbled at the margins for market share.
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
For 2025 and beyond, a few particular global and industry trends can offer attractive long-term returns for advisors and investors alike.
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
President Joe Biden is indefinitely blocking offshore oil and gas development in more than 625 million acres of US coastal waters, warning that drilling there is simply “not worth the risks” and “unnecessary” to meet the nation’s energy needs.
Energy
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Bessent Says Trump Wants Lower 10-Year Yields, Not Fed Cuts
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles.
Steady M&A Deals to Begin 2025, Disappointing IPOs So Far
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gasoline Prices Inch Down From Last Week
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Better Together: Why Cities Are Man’s Greatest Invention and How We Could Fix them
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
Northern Exposure
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Q4 Tech Earnings: Will CapEx Take Bite of Profits?
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
China’s Transitory Rebound
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
DeepSeek Is Coming for Sam Altman’s Other Company Too
If OpenAI LLC were a listed company, Monday would have been a very bad day for the stock.
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
AI’s Electricity Demand Means Cool New Tech Is Coming to Boring Grids
Bosses at artificial intelligence companies aren’t worried about the end of the world or the start of government regulations. Their biggest worry is more mundane: finding enough electricity to keep servers running at data centers.
Markets Resilient Amid Historic Week and Fed Meeting in Focus
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
The End of the Neoliberal Era
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
DeepSeek Shows Silicon Valley’s Huge Blindspot on AI
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Navigating Earnings Season: Margins for Error
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
A Rollercoaster Finale to 2024
The fourth quarter of 2024 was not just a period of optimism and recovery but also one of reflection and recalibration.
Data Is the New Oil: How Snowflake Is Building AI's Critical Infrastructure
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
Earnings Season: Big Roster of Tech Results Ahead
Earnings season is in full swing. The bulk of the bottom-line boost is slated to come from financials, communication services, and tech.
Saudi Crown Prince Makes $600 Billion Investment and Trade Pledge to Trump
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told President Donald Trump he’s willing to expand investments and trade with the US in the coming four years by $600 billion, according to the kingdom’s state-run news agency SPA.
2025 Market Outlook: Rational Exuberance?
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Can European Stocks Overcome Fallout From “America First” Agenda?
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
Examining Midstream EBITDA Guidance for 2025 and Beyond
VettaFi examines midstream EBITDA growth guidance for 2025 and future years.
US Bonds Advance as Trump Delays on Tariffs, Oil Prices Fall
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
Trump Starts Reshaping US Energy With Focus on Oil and Gas
President Donald Trump launched a sweeping overhaul of US energy policy hours after taking office Monday, putting the weight of the federal government behind fossil-fuel production and pulling back from the fight against climate change.
Trump’s Tariff Shifts Are a Warning for Corporate America to Expect Whiplash
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Revels Winners and Losers for 2024
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
A Possible Storm
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
The US Gas Comeback Is Real
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
After a Strong 2024, Do MLPs/Midstream Have More in the Tank?
Join the experts at SS&C ALPS Advisors and VettaFi for an educational webcast on January 9th at 1pm ET as they discuss the outlook for MLPs/midstream in 2025.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Catastrophe’s Thin Red Line
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
Economic Resilience Meets “Higher for Longer” Rates
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Treasuries Selloff Ripples Through World Markets After Jobs Data
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
A Partly Cloudy Year
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Energy Sector Goes From S&P 500’s ‘Worst to First’ in 2025 Start
Energy is the star sector of the S&P 500 Index in the early days of 2025, shaking off two consecutive years when it was a market laggard, and gaining despite Wall Street’s dim outlook for oil and gas stocks.
On Bubble Watch
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
Outlook 2025: Planning for Growth and Embracing Change
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
With New Risks Surfacing, How Should Investors Position Portfolios in 2025?
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Bankers Need the Right Trump Outcome to Justify Stock Optimism
US investment banks have little room for error in their upcoming full-year results.
A Necessary Tool for Income Investors… Especially Now
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
Google’s Most Serious Rival Isn’t Microsoft. It’s a Startup
The AI boom of the past two years has largely been a two-horse race. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp.-funded OpenAI have duked it out for customers, while Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. have nibbled at the margins for market share.
Bitcoin Is Not a Nothing, But Not a Something Either
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
Pressing for Yet More
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
Keep These Investment Themes In Mind For 2025
For 2025 and beyond, a few particular global and industry trends can offer attractive long-term returns for advisors and investors alike.
Don’t Forget Commodity ETF Exposure in 2025
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
Privatize the USPS? Not in an Era of Crony Capitalism
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
AI Frenzy Drove the S&P 500’s Best Two-Year Gains Since the Dot-Com Era
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
A Controversial Start
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
Biden Bars Offshore Oil Drilling in US Atlantic and Pacific
President Joe Biden is indefinitely blocking offshore oil and gas development in more than 625 million acres of US coastal waters, warning that drilling there is simply “not worth the risks” and “unnecessary” to meet the nation’s energy needs.