Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell at a steady pace in January, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from December. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 17 in December to 15 in January.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for December puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for the 19th straight month. However, inflation now sits just above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.88%.
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
We believe that there are several guardrails in place that considerably limit the extent of presidential influence over monetary policy decisions.
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.
We all know someone who has passed away without their affairs in order. As financial advisors, we have a responsibility to ensure that this doesn’t happen to our clients.
Double-digit increases in rates are common. I’m definitely feeling the pain, as I suspect you are. So here are a few things I do to help my clients save some money.
How a diversified liquidity strategy might help time-strapped corporate treasurers reduce vulnerabilities and improve adaptability in uncertain markets while maintaining access to cash.
We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
Understanding how money impacts human behavior and psychology may help serve your clients effectively.
Don’t let your clients lose sight of their goals in financial complexity. Give them the clarity and simplicity they crave with a one-page plan that’s tailored to their unique needs.
Sirion Skulpone of Goldman Sachs Asset Management talks through the risks of being concentrated in individual stocks.
Let's keep our client meetings focused and manageable. By doing so, we not only respect their time and attention but also increase the likelihood of them taking the necessary steps to achieve their financial goals.
While baby boomers can be slower to embrace technology, younger investors tend to seek out and prefer tech-focused services and providers. This preference for technology is something advisors should lean into to connect with younger generations of investors.
In the midst of grieving your loved one’s loss and making funeral arrangements, you may also be responsible for finalizing their estate, which could include inheriting real estate.
Next-generation investors are looking for more than just traditional portfolio managements, and advisors should look to meet those expectations.
Consistent communication through market events is vital for advisors concerned about client retention.
Year-end can be an opportune time to review finances, rebalance portfolios, and possibly reduce taxes. Our Bill Cass shares some highlights from a year-end planning checklist.
Our analysis explores how potential post-election tax policy changes might impact dividends, capital gains, and municipal bonds and how investors might prepare for different election outcomes.
Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.
When done effectively, your outsourced team of professionals can help improve efficiencies, increase productivity, and scale profitably – all while giving you the freedom to focus on what you’re most passionate about.
Here, we'll explore why serving family offices is a natural fit for many RIAs, discuss the considerations that need to be factored in when launching an MFO practice, and offer a roadmap for successfully building one.
With the election looming, investors should prepare for potential changes in tax policies, particularly given the impending sunset of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Opening a 529 college savings account can be a smart move if you’d like to save for college on a tax-advantaged basis. One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
This article will explore how to increase your AUM by capturing assets in trusts and DAFs, explain the difference between directed and traditional trustees, and discuss why designating a directed trustee and an advisor-friendly DAF is in the client’s best interest.
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
Unbundling services and offering them à la carte could appeal to clients who want more control over their financial management. This approach allows clients to tailor the services they receive to their unique needs and preferences.
For registered investment advisors and others who provide financial advice, autumn is the start of a season loaded with opportunity.
Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.
Estate Planning
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of Workers in January 2025
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: January 2025
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
Gasoline Prices Inch Down From Last Week
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Vehicle Sales: January 2025
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Contracts for 14th Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
PCE Inflation Rises 2.6% in December as Expected
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Q4 Advance Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q4 2024 GDP Advance Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Remained Soft in January
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Durable Goods Orders: December 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Activity Reaches Highest Level Since October 2021
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
New Home Sales Up 3.6% in December; Beats Forecast
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
Existing Home Sales Up for 3rd Straight Month in December
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: An Exploration of Evolution and Customization
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Fell at Steady Pace in January
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell at a steady pace in January, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from December. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 17 in December to 15 in January.
America's Driving Habits: November 2024
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Housing Starts Jump 15.8% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
Social Security Changes Mean Higher Benefits for Certain Public Workers
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls to 3.5 Year Low
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in December, Lower Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Jumps to Highest Level Since April 2021
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for December puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for the 19th straight month. However, inflation now sits just above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.88%.
Real Middle Class Wages as of December 2024
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines in January
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Household Incomes 2023: The Value of Higher Education
What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?
Household Incomes: The Decline of the "Middle Class" 2023 Update
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Increased Less Than Expected in December
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
Surging Bond Yields Make a Strong Case for Fiscal Sanity
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
Trade Balance Jumps 6.2% in November
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
High Hopes, Solid Grounds
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
Is Fed Independence at Risk of Presidential Influence?
We believe that there are several guardrails in place that considerably limit the extent of presidential influence over monetary policy decisions.
Financial Resolutions for 2025
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
CB Leading Economic Index: Small Rise in November
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.
My Uncle’s Early Death Hit Our Family Hard: A Case for Estate Planning
We all know someone who has passed away without their affairs in order. As financial advisors, we have a responsibility to ensure that this doesn’t happen to our clients.
Help Clients Save Money on Property and Casualty Insurance
Double-digit increases in rates are common. I’m definitely feeling the pain, as I suspect you are. So here are a few things I do to help my clients save some money.
Treasurers: Balancing Liquidity, Diversification, and Daily Demands
How a diversified liquidity strategy might help time-strapped corporate treasurers reduce vulnerabilities and improve adaptability in uncertain markets while maintaining access to cash.
Yields and Credit Quality Make High Yield Bonds Attractive for 2025
We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.
Bond Market Opportunities for Investors in 2025
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Year-End Estate Planning: Strategies for Maximizing Tax Benefits and Legacy Planning
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
Money Changes Your Clients: Key Psychological Insights for Financial Advisors
Understanding how money impacts human behavior and psychology may help serve your clients effectively.
79 Questions to Ask When Building a One-Page Plan
Don’t let your clients lose sight of their goals in financial complexity. Give them the clarity and simplicity they crave with a one-page plan that’s tailored to their unique needs.
Tackling Concentrated Stock Risk
Sirion Skulpone of Goldman Sachs Asset Management talks through the risks of being concentrated in individual stocks.
Mastering Client Meetings: How to Avoid Overwhelm and Deliver Massive Value
Let's keep our client meetings focused and manageable. By doing so, we not only respect their time and attention but also increase the likelihood of them taking the necessary steps to achieve their financial goals.
How Financial Advisors Can Target the Next-Gen Recipients of Generational Wealth
While baby boomers can be slower to embrace technology, younger investors tend to seek out and prefer tech-focused services and providers. This preference for technology is something advisors should lean into to connect with younger generations of investors.
Estate Planning Essentials: A Beneficiary’s Guide to Selling Real Estate After a Loved One Dies
In the midst of grieving your loved one’s loss and making funeral arrangements, you may also be responsible for finalizing their estate, which could include inheriting real estate.
Advisors Should Adapt to Evolving Client Expectations
Next-generation investors are looking for more than just traditional portfolio managements, and advisors should look to meet those expectations.
Thinking Long Term, Communicating Short Term
Consistent communication through market events is vital for advisors concerned about client retention.
Get a Jumpstart on Year-End Planning With This Useful Checklist
Year-end can be an opportune time to review finances, rebalance portfolios, and possibly reduce taxes. Our Bill Cass shares some highlights from a year-end planning checklist.
U.S. Election: Prepare Now for Potential Tax Shifts
Our analysis explores how potential post-election tax policy changes might impact dividends, capital gains, and municipal bonds and how investors might prepare for different election outcomes.
Climbing the Wall of Worries
Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.
Who Belongs on Your Advisory Firm’s Dream Team?
When done effectively, your outsourced team of professionals can help improve efficiencies, increase productivity, and scale profitably – all while giving you the freedom to focus on what you’re most passionate about.
How Can RIAs Start a Multi-Family Office Practice?
Here, we'll explore why serving family offices is a natural fit for many RIAs, discuss the considerations that need to be factored in when launching an MFO practice, and offer a roadmap for successfully building one.
U.S. Election 2024: An Analysis of the Tax Scenarios for Investors
With the election looming, investors should prepare for potential changes in tax policies, particularly given the impending sunset of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
529 Plans: Custodial Versus Individual Accounts
Opening a 529 college savings account can be a smart move if you’d like to save for college on a tax-advantaged basis. One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
An Untapped Gold Mine of Assets You Can Manage
This article will explore how to increase your AUM by capturing assets in trusts and DAFs, explain the difference between directed and traditional trustees, and discuss why designating a directed trustee and an advisor-friendly DAF is in the client’s best interest.
Can America Age Gracefully?
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
Navigating the $84 Trillion Wealth Transfer: Shaping the Future of Financial Planning
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
S&P 500 Index Rebalance: Steady Preference for Technology
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
What If Your Prospect Doesn’t Want Comprehensive Wealth Management?
Unbundling services and offering them à la carte could appeal to clients who want more control over their financial management. This approach allows clients to tailor the services they receive to their unique needs and preferences.
Registered Investment Advisors - Turning Autumn Into Assets: Strategies for October’s Bounty
For registered investment advisors and others who provide financial advice, autumn is the start of a season loaded with opportunity.
S&P 500 Earnings Breadth Broadens
Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.