Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
Everyone should have access to a quality retirement plan. That should not be a radical statement. People deserve to age with dignity and not worry about outliving their savings or paying for necessities like shelter and food.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Prepare for 2024 taxes by organizing forms, documenting charitable contributions, maximizing retirement savings and reporting rental income.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
While we may joke about spending it down to the last penny, chances are there will still be plenty left for you when all is said and done. We just don’t necessarily want to admit it.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
In 2025, the SECURE 2.0 Act boosts retirement savings with new rules for higher catch-up contributions, auto-enrollment and expanding access to savings plans. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
The growth in US retirement assets offers potential opportunities for retirement plan advisors to likewise expand their business. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses growth opportunities in the retirement market and how to enhance client engagement.
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Two months from now, the ETF community of advisors and industry folks will come together. The Exchange conference kicks off in Las Vegas on March 23.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way.
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
The gap between US federal spending and tax revenue is currently bigger, as a share of gross domestic product, than it’s ever been outside of major war or other crisis.
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.
Jamie Dimon, who turns 69 in March, will one day retire as chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. The candidates to succeed him have been well advertised.
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
Do top-heavy markets eventually spread out? Diversification in investment strategies is essential as the market is inherently unpredictable.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
The Roaring 2020s have been very good so far, but not exceptional when examined in isolation. That said, when viewed in the context of the past 16 years, this record-breaking bull market is spectacular.
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
A look at the 2025 tax rates and contribution limits means individuals may save or gift more this year. Our Bill Cass shares the updated key tax figures and some planning considerations for the year ahead.
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Caryl Falvey shares retirement-conversation insights from MIT Agelabs and MassMutual Strategic Distributors.
Wall Street is forecasting an 8% return in 2025. That’s below the 10.4% average nominal return over the past 99 years, but it is a forecast of even higher highs. Do you believe it? Will “The Bull” keep running this new year, or is it getting tired?
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read practice management articles over the past 12 months. Enjoy!
We’re continuing the Advisor Perspectives tradition of highlighting the most-read investing articles for 2024. Enjoy!
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
Change is a catalyst that can drive innovation and help position businesses in all industries for sustained success. The adoption of wealthtech illustrates the transformative power of embracing change.
With Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, debates have reignited about the potential impact on markets, trade, and the global economy. The new administration has promised deregulation, tax cuts and a focus on energy independence.
I will be looking at a few indicators in 2025 to tell me where financial markets are going. Most of them relate to the bond market, because it is both a window into the overall economy and an important component of how stocks and other risky assets are valued.
The S&P 500 Index posted its best month of the year in November, with a clear election result and a “no-surprise” Fed rate cut providing support.
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
Wall Street expects the stock market to earn a return in 2025 that is similar to the average return over the past 100 years. Do you agree?
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
Taxpayers may want to consider a Roth IRA conversion for 2024 but need to act before the end of the year to realize income this year. Our Bill Cass explains when a Roth conversion may make sense.
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
From start to finish, 2024 was a year of change, with a multitude of implications for investors.
Delivering the first cuts in interest rates since the early days of the pandemic was the easy part.
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.
Retirement Income
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: January 2025
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Putting ‘Fixed Income’ Back Into Fixed Income: Cash-Flow-Matched Bond Strategies for Retirees
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
Here We Go Again: Merton Share and Why I Don’t Use Retirement Calculators
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
Robinhood IRA Match Can’t Take the Place of a 401(k)
Everyone should have access to a quality retirement plan. That should not be a radical statement. People deserve to age with dignity and not worry about outliving their savings or paying for necessities like shelter and food.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
January’s Top 10 Articles Are an Educational Selection
A look at our most widely read articles for January reveals a motley crew, ranging from thought pieces on best practices for managing your advisory firm to explorations of the potential for stock market disaster.
Private Equity and 401(k)s Aren’t a Great Match
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
Politics and Investing
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
More Secure 2.0 Retirement Enhancements Kick in This Year
In 2025, SECURE 2.0 introduces mandatory automatic enrollment in new retirement plans, increased catch-up limits for certain workers, and reduced participation requirements for long-term part-time workers. Our Mike Dullaghan highlights the details of the new provisions.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Early Planning Can Mean Smooth Sailing for Tax Season
Prepare for 2024 taxes by organizing forms, documenting charitable contributions, maximizing retirement savings and reporting rental income.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Are Boomers Really Spending Their Children’s Inheritance?
While we may joke about spending it down to the last penny, chances are there will still be plenty left for you when all is said and done. We just don’t necessarily want to admit it.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Bifurcated Advancements in 401(k) Investments
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
SECURE 2.0: What’s New for 2025?
In 2025, the SECURE 2.0 Act boosts retirement savings with new rules for higher catch-up contributions, auto-enrollment and expanding access to savings plans. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
2025 Outlook: Uncovering Retirement Opportunities for Advisors
The growth in US retirement assets offers potential opportunities for retirement plan advisors to likewise expand their business. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses growth opportunities in the retirement market and how to enhance client engagement.
Leadership Perspectives: Managing a Successful Firm
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
How Trump Can Slash Red Tape and Enrich America, Too
Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Exchange Excitement Is Building
Two months from now, the ETF community of advisors and industry folks will come together. The Exchange conference kicks off in Las Vegas on March 23.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Gardening Guide To Better Portfolio Returns In 2025
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way.
Top 5 Issues Institutional Investors Should Be Thinking About in 2025
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Are US Taxes Too High or Too Low? Choose Your Chart
The gap between US federal spending and tax revenue is currently bigger, as a share of gross domestic product, than it’s ever been outside of major war or other crisis.
Rebuilding Hope: Immediate Assistance and Financial Guidance for Wildfire Victims
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
No, Ray Dalio, There's Not a UK Debt Death Spiral
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Q4 2024 Commentary: Defying Expectations, Embracing Optimization
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Restoring Fiscal Control Can’t Wait Much Longer
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
A Possible Storm
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Direct Indexing: An Easy Way to Tax-Loss Harvest All Year Round
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Life Without ZIRP Spells RIR: Rising Interest Rates
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Social Security Changes Mean Higher Benefits for Certain Public Workers
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Real Middle Class Wages as of December 2024
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Thoughts from the Consumer Electronics Show
I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.
Jamie Dimon’s Succession Race Just Lost a Top Candidate
Jamie Dimon, who turns 69 in March, will one day retire as chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. The candidates to succeed him have been well advertised.
The $2 Trillion Home Insurance Nightmare Is Getting Even Worse
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Early Groundwork Is Key for Implementing Lifetime Income Solutions
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
The Case for Active Fixed Income in 2025
Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.
Private Equity Does Not Belong in Your 401(k)
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
Health Check: How Is the Global Economy Holding Up?
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
Don’t Disdain Diversification
Do top-heavy markets eventually spread out? Diversification in investment strategies is essential as the market is inherently unpredictable.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
The Roaring 2020s Are Prodding the Bull
The Roaring 2020s have been very good so far, but not exceptional when examined in isolation. That said, when viewed in the context of the past 16 years, this record-breaking bull market is spectacular.
Examining the Case for Active Bond Investing
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
Surging Bond Yields Make a Strong Case for Fiscal Sanity
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
2025 Economic Outlook
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
Key Tax Figures for 2025
A look at the 2025 tax rates and contribution limits means individuals may save or gift more this year. Our Bill Cass shares the updated key tax figures and some planning considerations for the year ahead.
Pressing for Yet More
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
Economy Will Remain Supportive of Markets in 2025
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance Commentary and Review
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
A Controversial Start
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
MicroStrategy Buys Bitcoin After Adding Preferred Offering
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Why Words Matter in Client Conversations About Retirement
Caryl Falvey shares retirement-conversation insights from MIT Agelabs and MassMutual Strategic Distributors.
A 99-Year Perspective on US Markets — Is the Bull Getting Tired?
Wall Street is forecasting an 8% return in 2025. That’s below the 10.4% average nominal return over the past 99 years, but it is a forecast of even higher highs. Do you believe it? Will “The Bull” keep running this new year, or is it getting tired?
Muni Bonds in a New Interest Rate Regime
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Our Top 10 Most-Popular Practice Management Articles of 2024
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read practice management articles over the past 12 months. Enjoy!
Our Top 10 Most Popular Investing Articles of 2024
We’re continuing the Advisor Perspectives tradition of highlighting the most-read investing articles for 2024. Enjoy!
A Look Behind the Gaslight Curtain: Optimistic Assumptions Underlie 2025 Market Forecasts
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
Change is Inevitable. Managing it is Crucial.
Change is a catalyst that can drive innovation and help position businesses in all industries for sustained success. The adoption of wealthtech illustrates the transformative power of embracing change.
Strategies for Investing Under the New Administration: Insights and Opportunities
With Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, debates have reignited about the potential impact on markets, trade, and the global economy. The new administration has promised deregulation, tax cuts and a focus on energy independence.
Where Are Stocks and the Economy Going? Ask Bonds
I will be looking at a few indicators in 2025 to tell me where financial markets are going. Most of them relate to the bond market, because it is both a window into the overall economy and an important component of how stocks and other risky assets are valued.
Taking Stock: Q1 2025 Equity Market Outlook
The S&P 500 Index posted its best month of the year in November, with a clear election result and a “no-surprise” Fed rate cut providing support.
The Popular Rise of Lifetime Income on Annuities
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
In American Debt We Trust — But for How Long?
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
Framework for Forecasting Next Year’s Stock Market Return
Wall Street expects the stock market to earn a return in 2025 that is similar to the average return over the past 100 years. Do you agree?
America Needs to Break Its Debt Addiction — Crisis or Not
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
Time Is Running Out: Is a Roth IRA Conversion Right for You in 2024?
Taxpayers may want to consider a Roth IRA conversion for 2024 but need to act before the end of the year to realize income this year. Our Bill Cass explains when a Roth conversion may make sense.
Financial Resolutions for 2025
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
Our Top 10 Favorite Articles of 2024
From start to finish, 2024 was a year of change, with a multitude of implications for investors.
A View to 2025: Enough With the Central Bank Hawks and Doves
Delivering the first cuts in interest rates since the early days of the pandemic was the easy part.
Private Credit Plots Expansion in Bid for $40 Trillion Prize
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.