Sovereign bonds rose around the world as concern the Middle East conflict will derail global economic growth revived demand for beaten-down government debt.
US Treasuries advanced with UK and Japanese bonds on speculation that surging oil prices may be just a harbinger of a protracted global fuel shortage. That’s helping boost demand for government debt that until recently had been under selling pressure as fears over quickening inflation outweighed their traditional haven appeal.
“The market is now letting its imagination run wild about what the world might look like in a month’s time if there is no resolution by then” to the war, said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. “Parallels with Covid are already being identified as economies are at risk of shutting down — this time due to lack of fuel.”
The bond rally comes after weeks of selling that was driven by surging oil costs and concern over potential central bank interest-rate hikes. The recent shift in focus toward slowing economic growth is easing fears that central banks will need to adopt an aggressively hawkish stance to control inflation.
Yields on Treasury two-year notes, among the securities most sensitive to shifts in monetary policy, fell six basis points to 3.85%, after sliding seven basis points on Friday. Those on benchmark 10-year debt dropped nearly 7 basis points to 4.36%.
As the focus shifts from inflation, traders have largely unwound the pricing of US rate hikes for this year, with swaps for the December Fed meeting back near zero. That contract was reflecting as much as 16 basis points of a quarter-point increase from the Fed last week.
On Monday, traders will scrutinize an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a moderated discussion at Harvard University set for 10:30 EDT, for further clues on how he views the risks between growth and inflation in the coming months.
UK and German 10-year yields both fell around 5 basis points to 4.92% and 3.04% respectively. Japanese equivalents declined one basis point to 2.36%.
Some of the biggest bond funds in the US including Pacific Investment Management Co. say financial markets are underestimating risks the Iran war will trigger a sharp slowdown. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the probability of a downturn over the coming year has risen to about 30%.
The war — now in its second month — is showing no sign of ending even after the US extended a deadline for Tehran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This has left Brent crude on track for a record monthly increase. It was up more than 2% at around $115 a barrel in Monday trading.
US President Donald Trump said in a social media post earlier that the administration is in “serious discussions” with the regime, threatening further attacks on Iran’s oil and electricity infrastructure if a deal is not reached.
Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, recommended buying five-year Treasuries and betting on a steeper yield curve between the seven- and 30-year tenors in a note published on Friday.
“If energy prices continue to climb, then downside risks to growth should rise further,” he wrote.
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni said bond vigilantes have mobilized globally since the start of the conflict, resulting in over-bearishness in some parts of debt markets.
“The front end of the yield curve is priced for a tightening policy response that we doubt is coming, so we consider it to be oversold,” Yardeni wrote in a research note, referring to Treasuries.
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