Really? Yes, really.
First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us. Still, current fear levels mark a sharp contrast to where things stood in early April, when the VIX volatility index briefly shot north of 60. For context, that figure is associated with September 11th and Lehman Brothers.
According to Polymarket, where futures contracts on geopolitical outcomes change hands, there is a sense that the trade war could witness some positive outcomes in coming months. On the question of whether a trade deal with the U.S. will get done before July, both Japan and India are priced at 76% odds of success. However, we would be remiss if we didn’t point out the plot twist on India: last week's terror attack was the country's worst since 2008. With war drums beating, it would not be a surprise if trade negotiations move to the backburner, at least temporarily.
Vietnam and South Korea are the next-most probable on the list of countries who could come to deal terms with the U.S. before the end of Q2; their odds are 68% and 66%, respectively, while the UK’s odds are 60% and the EU is a toss-up. However, everyone knows the big negotiation is with China – and that country’s deal odds are notably lower, 39%. Trump has laid out a rough timeline of when the first few deals should trickle in: within "three to four weeks” as of about a week ago. Time will tell if it plays out that way.
As has been the case since markets initially freaked out in mid-February, the messaging is often murky. For example, Trump recently stated that China’s Xi Jinping called the White House to discuss trade, yet Chinese officials deny it.
Outside of China’s 145% tariff rate, essentially an embargo, the 90-day moratorium on tariffs has brought most countries’ rate to 10%. This offers a crucial window of relief to purchasing managers, giving businesses time to seek out alternative suppliers—or to front-load purchases because there is no second supplier.
All of this puts a cloud over risk assets, but it does not appear to be the end of global commerce as we know it. Take the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent economic downgrades. Earlier this year, global GDP growth estimates for 2025 penciled +3.3%. That forecast was recently trimmed to 2.8%. Disappointing? Yes. Catastrophic? Hardly.
Admittedly, there is a widespread view that some shelves may be bare this summer, which is painfully reminiscent of the Covid supply-chain clog-up. This summer may well witness shortages in areas that China dominates, such as children’s dolls and bicycles. Shipping companies are reporting sharp volume declines, suggesting real-time weakness in trade flows.
Still, when weighing all the data, do not let Covid memories fade. The massive Ever Given containership picked the worst possible time to get stuck in and completely block the Suez Canal for 6 miserable days: March 2021. Back then China was in the teeth of its Zero Covid policy. How about another multi-year supply chain issue: Houthi rebels shooting at ships in the Red Sea. Let’s also remember the semiconductor shortage during Covid. Do not forget the west coast dockworkers striking too. Finally, a big one: Europe’s natural gas prices went vertical, as did the oil price, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Though this particular supply chain saga is “different,” for many purchasing managers, it isn’t their first rodeo.
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