It happened quickly. One minute, the focus was on the furious nature of stocks’ rebound off the April 8 lows. The next minute you start hearing strategists, including ourselves, making references to 2021.
That year was a wild one. If asked to see the future in March 2020, most observers would have imagined society would engage “14 days to stop the spread,” and then things would get back to normal. But as the Covid saga rolled on, 2020 and 2021 ended up being characterized by a fiscal and monetary push that was counted in trillions of dollars. After being laid off in Q1/2020, tens of millions of workers suddenly became employed again, many in a remote working situation, some from a new pad in the sunbelt. From stocks to used cars to houses, it seemed the price of everything was going up. After rising 18.4% and 48.6% respectively in 2020, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ proceeded to tack on another 28.7% and 27.2% in 2021.
2021 was the year of “Roaring Kitty,” the message board handle of the guy who was the face of Reddit’s stock market enthusiasts. The Reddit army sent GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks spinning higher in what they viewed to be an Occupy Wall Street-style attack on big institutional players. It wasn’t important that the only firm to take a serious loss from short squeezes, from our recollection, was the tiny hedge fund Melvin Capital.
The meme stock era rang the proverbial bell on the 2020-2021 bull market; calendar 2022 witnessed an 18.1% and 32.5% decline for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, respectively.
Currently, meme stocks have made something of a comeback. This go around, the main story stock is Opendoor, which is like Carvana, but for houses. For catalysts, the Reddit users cite a large number of shorts, a potential alleviation of capital gains taxes on home sales, and Trump’s attempt to get the Fed to lower rates.
But beyond meme stocks, many other key parts of the 2021 timeline are not nearly as extreme today. Take Special Purpose Acquisition Corporations (SPACs). They’re heating up, but it’s a fizzle compared to 2021’s frenzy. According to Alpharank, blank check companies had a total market cap of more than $200bn in Q2/2021. After swooning to $11bn in 2024, the rebound this year has only taken the total back to $27bn.
Another Covid theme, inflation, has been turned on its head. Inventory shortages and muddied delivery schedules were just part of the equation back then. Another part: if you weren’t driving to work and paying for lunch downtown, that freed up money for, say, patio furniture. Other prices went up because people had new time on their hands. From baseball cards to Swiss watches and NFTs, price surges were the norm. But much of this is ancient history; the latest CPI reading was +2.7% YoY, down from over 9% at the peak. Swiss watches? NFTs? Ice cold this year.
Unfortunately for those of us who still care about valuations, there are other parallels between 2025 and 2021. The post-GFC forward P/E peak on the S&P 500 came in late 2020, at 24.6x. Today, the market’s forward multiple is just short of that figure: 23.1x. That is unsettling but remember: the market’s 2022 losses came amid a Fed tightening cycle that needed to be aggressive enough to wipe out incessant consumer inflation. The stock market started declining almost immediately after the clock struck midnight on New Year’s 2022. That year, the Fed took the funds rate from a 0-0.25% range to 4.5%. The current situation is much clearer: the rate is one point lower than the 2023-2024 high of 5.25-5.50% and the Fed looks like it will take it lower still. Maybe that’s the most important difference between 2025 and 2021.
Kevin Flanagan and Jeff Weniger are Registered Representatives of Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund before investing. For a prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus containing this and other important information about the Fund, call 866.909.9473 or visit WisdomTree.com/investments. Read the prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Important Risk Information:
There are risks associated with investing, including the possible loss of principal. Foreign investing involves currency, political and economic risk. Funds focusing on a single country and/or sector and/or funds that emphasize investments in smaller companies may experience greater price volatility. Emerging markets, real estate, currency, fixed income and alternative investments include additional risks. Please see the prospectus for a discussion of risks.
This material contains the opinions of the authors, which are subject to change, and should not be considered or interpreted as a recommendation to participate in any particular trading strategy or deemed to be an offer or sale of any investment product, and it should not be relied on as such. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will work under all market conditions. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This material should not be relied upon as research or investment advice regarding any security in particular. The user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of the information provided herein.
WisdomTree Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
A message from Advisor Perspectives and VettaFi: To learn more about this and other topics, check out some of our webcasts.
© WisdomTree, Inc.
Read more commentaries by WisdomTree, Inc.
