Gold & Silver Drop as U.S. Rules Out Bullion Tariffs

Markets need volume to move, and right now there simply isn’t enough “juice” to propel prices higher. But with only a few more weeks of summer left, there’s no reason to rush or worry about gold and silver.

My advice? Enjoy the season—spend time with family and friends, relax at the beach or pool, fire up the barbecue, and make the most of the warm weather.

That’s exactly what I’m doing. When fall inevitably arrives, trading volume will return, and there’s a very good chance that precious metals will get back to rallying. Make no mistake—the bull market is still intact and still in its early stages.

The chart below of COMEX gold futures shows this summer’s trading range and Thursday night’s attempt to break above the $3,500 resistance level following speculation that gold bullion might be tariffed. However, there was no close above that level, so the breakout was not confirmed.

My suspicions were confirmed when prices quickly retreated. Still, this is just market noise, and I believe another breakout attempt is coming soon that is far more likely to stick.

In recent weeks, I’ve been highlighting a triangle pattern forming within the summer 2025 trading range, as shown in the COMEX gold futures chart below.

A breakout above this compound formation should set the stage for gold to surge past $4,000. That outlook remains fully intact—we are simply waiting for confirmation.

The last two charts showed COMEX gold futures, which have been whipsawed by shifting U.S. tariff speculation. In contrast, the spot gold price, which is the international benchmark, has remained relatively stable and continues to trade within its triangle pattern, as shown below.

As I noted on Saturday, the lack of bullish follow-through and confirmation from spot gold made me question the late-week moves in COMEX futures, and those doubts proved correct. Even so, the chart below still looks strong, and there is no reason for concern.

Now let’s turn to silver, represented here by COMEX silver futures. While silver has been relatively quiet lately and trading in a choppy fashion, which is typical for the summer months, it remains in a very strong technical position after recently breaking above the $32 to $35 resistance zone that capped gains for much of 2024 and early 2025.

Many investors and traders are growing discouraged and impatient with silver, as often happens, but that mindset misses the bigger picture. I see an asset in a confirmed, strong uptrend, and the trend is your friend. The bias remains firmly to the upside, and the only missing ingredient is trading volume, which I expect to return in force this fall.

I am genuinely excited for what lies ahead and anticipate another test of $40, with a strong likelihood of breaking through that level and moving significantly higher. This simply requires patience.

In the COMEX silver chart below, I’ve zoomed in to show silver’s current price action. After breaking above the critical $32 to $35 zone two months ago, silver has been holding its gains and is now trading in a choppy, sideways manner—likely forming a new range that will set the stage for its next leg higher.

The $40 resistance level is the key to watch, as this is where silver’s recent rally stalled before pulling back.

Once there is a decisive breakout above that level on strong volume, I believe silver’s bull market will truly start to accelerate.

When that happens, it will catch many people off guard and leave behind those who lacked the faith and foresight to hold on while silver methodically climbs the staircase from one consolidation to the next.

To wrap things up, I am admittedly frustrated with the way these tariff announcements have been handled, as they are creating unnecessary confusion, noise, and false signals.

My approach, however, is to step back and focus on the bigger picture, and as I have shown, both gold and silver remain in strong technical positions. I am not worried in the slightest.

In fact, I am seeing many inexperienced investors and analysts growing concerned or losing hope, which, from a contrarian perspective, is a very positive sign.

It reminds me exactly of last summer when sentiment was similarly negative. The most powerful market rallies often begin when the crowd is most pessimistic.

My bias is to expect a repeat performance of last year, although I am still waiting for confirmation in the form of a convincing high-volume liftoff in gold as summer winds down. Until then, I will remain objective and continue to keep you updated as always.

Jesse Colombo is a financial analyst and investor writing on macro-economics and precious metals markets. Recognized by The Times of London, he has built a reputation for warning about economic bubbles and future financial crises. An advocate for free markets and sound money, Colombo was also named one of LinkedIn's Top Voices in Economy & Finance. His Substack can be accessed here.

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