What a year it’s been for gold investing! As we approach the end of the third quarter, gold prices are up nearly 40% year-to-date, triggering upward forecast revisions by big firms, and attracting investor dollars on its way up.
For perspective, the S&P 500 is up 12% in the same period. Bitcoin is up 23%. Everyone is playing in record territory these days, but gold’s rush remains unmatched in relative magnitude.
The ETF market confirms that investors have taken notice. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) remains one of the top 10 most popular ETFs this year, taking in nearly $11 billion in fresh net assets. Its counterpart, the SPDR Gold Minishares Trust (GLDM) has seen net inflows of $6.5 billion.
Together, physical gold ETFs have taken in some $28 billion in net new money this year. That’s notably different from the sub-$3 billion intake in 2024, when funds like iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ended the year as net asset losers and GLD scooped up only $366 million in net new assets the entire year.
Source: Google
Things have lined up well for gold. From trade tension to geopolitical risk to concerns about economic strength and ongoing uncertainty, gold has emerged as a safe haven of choice, a powerful inflation hedge and diversifier to other portfolio risks this year.
In a piece of global research earlier this summer, J.P. Morgan raised the question: “Will gold prices continue to hit all-time highs in 2025?” At that time, the firm was already pointing out that the strength in gold prices had surpassed its original outlook coming into the year.
“We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly,” Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, said at the time.
Today, J.P. Morgan has gold prices averaging $4,068/oz in 2026, possibly hitting as high as $4,250 in the fourth quarter of next year. This week, Goldman Sachs warned of the possibility of $5,000/oz gold if expected interest rate cuts lead to assets tied to Treasuries finding their way into gold, according to a MarketWatch report.
Strength in gold prices going forward is a theme that seems to only be gaining momentum as we head into the fourth quarter.
Beyond Physical Gold
Gold ETFs have benefited dramatically this year from the macro support and growing investor appetite. However, there are also other types of gold exposures that have been delivering value.
For example, ETFs that generate income on gold exposure have done well in 2025. Gold isn’t a yielding asset. However, there are ETFs today that rely on options overlays to produce income in a gold portfolio.
The Simplify Gold Strategy Plus Income ETF (YGLD) is an example, and the fund is up 60% this year. The newcomer NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI), which launched in June, is up more than 9% this quarter, and has a distribution rate of 12.5%. There are others, all riding gold prices higher while shelling out yield for income-seeking investors.
Miners Underappreciated, But For How Long?
Gold miners are having an even more impressive run this year. Benefiting from higher gold prices as well as from strong balance sheets and operational resilience of many of these companies, this category of equities has seen quite the rush.
The Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX), as an example, is up 101% year-to-date. The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) is up nearly 98%. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 95%. If you look at leveraged plays like the MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN (GDXU), brace yourself. The ticker is up some 400% this year. The list goes on.
However, unlike physical gold funds, miner ETFs remain largely in the red when it comes to asset gathering this year.
From profit-taking to concerns about equity and volatility risk, there have been many explanations for miner ETFs’ struggle to attract assets despite their massive returns. However, that tide could be turning, as outflows seem to be ebbing, and gold prices continue to rise.
Late to the Party or Still Early?
Is it too late to get into this rally? That’s a question that seems to be popping up lately, as gold forges new record highs. In truth, no one really knows what happens next. But we do know that as we enter what could be another rate cutting cycle, concerns about policy, regulation, geopolitics, inflation, and economic momentum remain in place. Uncertainty is still this year’s buzzword.
The factors that have supported the yellow metal thus far this year are still in place. Plus, the latest round of forecasts peg gold prices at least 7–10% higher from here.
If accessing the new gold rush is something you are looking to do, there’s good news. Whether it’s physical gold, income-generating gold, or equity-focused gold exposure, there’s an ETF for that. Start your research at etfdb.com.
VettaFi LLC (“VettaFi”) is the index provider for GDXU, for which it receives an index licensing fee. However, GDXU is not issued, sponsored, endorsed, or sold by VettaFi, and VettaFi has no obligation or liability in connection with the issuance, administration, marketing, or trading of GDXU.
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