“Macro is hard.”
Those are the words of Cambria CEO Meb Faber, who, in a recent post, attempted to capture the challenge of forecasting and interpreting macro conditions in a year like 2025. It’s been a wild year.
As he put it, “If we went back a year ago, and I told you gold would be up 60% and silver 90%, what would you say is going on in the world?
“Inflation ramping above 5%? Bitcoin at $500,000? Some new war? Aliens? Stocks down 30%?,” he said. “Doubt most would say: ‘Inflation mellow, stocks up 17%, two major conflicts winding down’.”
And yet, here we are. A baffling year for markets. Macro is indeed hard.
But that’s ok. As Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management and well-known investor once famously said, “You can’t predict, [but]you can prepare.”
As we revisit 2025 and consider portfolio and asset allocation for a new calendar year, macro clarity may be absent, but preparation is very much within reach. We are big believers in the power of investment process, long-term discipline and well-informed decision making.
It’s with that mindset that we at VettaFi will be sitting down next Tuesday with several asset managers and investment strategists to explore what has been in 2025 and what trends may be likely to shape the investment opportunity set going forward.
2026 Market Outlook Symposium Takes on Macro
Our “2026 Market Outlook Symposium” (register to attend here) isn’t an exercise in reading a crystal ball as much as it is in leveraging experience and expertise across the asset management industry. That means making sense of the data, picking the brains of firms like PIMCO, Goldman Sachs, MFS, BondBloxx, Wisdomtree, Pictet, Aristotle, Reckoner, Invesco and Victory Capital. We invite you to join the conversation.
Among our lineup of topics, we’ll dive into the environment for equities and fixed income, as well as thematic opportunities that are likely to stand out, and where indexes and active approaches may deliver most value.
When we look at how ETF investors allocated most money this year, we see there was persistent appetite for U.S. large-cap exposure, especially tech-focused plays. That’s despite ongoing concerns about valuations. Will that continue?
The latest read into these companies’ bottom lines seemed to validate that tilting into large-cap tech has made sense in 2025. Most technology names beat earnings estimates in Q3, but performance dispersion is growing and the growth outlook for this part of the market may be moderating.
In a recent market commentary, iShares highlighted that duality: “The top-earning sector this quarter was IT, boasting 40% EPS growth. Over 90% of companies beat revenue estimates and almost all (98%) exceeded EPS growth estimates. Yet from a return perspective, our analysis as of Nov. 14, 2025, found a 305% difference between IT’s top and bottom performers.”
That’s a wide gap. What’s more, according to iShares, dispersion isn’t just a tech sector feature, but artificial intelligence — as a theme — will influence results and lead to dispersion across all economic sectors. In 2026, minding the gap will be key. We’ll explore that come Tuesday.
Considering Fixed Income
In fixed income, there’s a lot to consider as well. Take Goldman Sachs’ recent view, where the firm argued risks for income investors are “evolving.”
“The third quarter of 2025 saw a marked shift in the balance of pitfalls and opportunities fixed income investors face,” the firm said. It noted labor conditions, Fed policy uncertainty, credibility of U.S. institutions and AI capex among the many drivers. Curve positioning will be key, as will be staying nimble and tactical in fixed income.
“Continued policymaker divergence provides investors with the opportunity to express views in different sovereigns across the curve and diversify their duration exposures,” Goldman Sachs said. We’ll dive into the challenges and opportunities in fixed income in our Symposium Tuesday.
Equities, fixed income, structured outcome solutions such as derivative income and options-based protection, thematic and alternatives considerations — there’s a lot of ground we will cover in our Symposium Tuesday.
Macro is hard, and none of us can predict the future. But come prepare with us as we look to a new calendar year of market action. The 2026 Market Outlook Symposium is Tuesday, December 9 at 11 a.m. ET. See you there!
Originally published on ETF Trends
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