Macro Drivers: Key Trends Shaping Investing in 2026

Key takeaways:

Macro drivers – including geopolitical shifts, demographic change, and higher capital costs – will continue to reshape global investment opportunities and risks throughout 2026.
Investors should consider proactively adjusting their strategies to navigate policy changes, artificial intelligence innovation, and sector-specific trends for better portfolio resilience and growth.
In our view, active management is crucial for identifying outperformers, managing market volatility, and delivering customized solutions that meet evolving client needs.

When meeting clients globally, I’m often asked for the themes that we, at Janus Henderson, based on the thinking of our more than 350 investment professionals, believe investors need to position for. As the world adjusts to unprecedented shifts and innovation, the overarching macro drivers we set out several years ago have endured. Yes, the detail and dynamics within each have changed – providing exciting opportunities for investors – but at a framing level, they remain highly relevant to investment success in 2026.

Geopolitical risk and regionalization: What investors need to know

2025 has seen the tangible consequences of election cycles that have brought new world leaders to power. Tariffs were an early example, and we believe 2026 will see ongoing impacts as governments implement economic policies to promote national interests. This has the potential to shape all areas of markets, with trade, technology, and energy being obvious examples. This changing investment landscape needs to be navigated carefully and expertly.

Companies in various categories – from chips to rare earths, social media to defense – are now viewed from a national security perspective. This means separating the future winners from the losers from an investment perspective requires more than traditional financial analysis. Politics has become another investment lever to pull.

The move from global to regional – with an emphasis on local resilience – has reshaped supply chains and investment flows. This can lead to volatility, as we saw in the first half of 2025 with tariffs, but also compelling opportunities. With states seeking homegrown champions and willing to provide backing, we are seeing exciting innovation, notably in technology and smaller companies. This is also playing out a regional level, with Europe an example of where policy shifts, defense spending, and attempts to boost competitiveness are offering new investment opportunities.

AI-driven innovation: The next wave of investment opportunities

People are living and working differently. Younger generations are quick to adopt digital transformation, and older generations are seeing meaningful benefits. The clear example is artificial intelligence (AI). From an investment perspective, the theme extends far beyond the AI companies themselves; this is a “wave” or “megatrend” that reaches all parts of the economy. Global AI spending is projected to reach US$375 billion in 2025 and US$500 billion by 2026.¹

AI innovation changes how businesses operate and deliver services, with the resulting productivity enhancements having the potential to fuel economic growth across all sectors. Healthcare is currently one area we’re seeing meaningful innovation as a result of AI. We’re also excited by the opportunities AI presents for how we run Janus Henderson itself.

From an investment perspective, AI requires a thoughtful approach. Considerations include the environmental impact that comes with increased power demand and the societal impact of potential job changes or displacement. Here, active research and engagement with companies to understand the financially material impact of AI is crucial.

Fixed income and private credit: Strategies for a higher cost of capital era

We started talking about the “return of the cost of capital” just as interest rates were on the rise. While interest rates are now generally falling from their peaks, the cost of capital is set to remain at levels far higher than what has been the norm over the last decade. This impacts investment markets in a meaningful way. No longer is access to capital cheap, with lenders being more selective. This creates a greater gap between the investment winners and the losers – and suits active managers well. Detailed analysis and deep understanding can uncover early indications of which side of the “have” or “have not” divide a company will fall – and help position portfolios accordingly.

The higher-for-longer cost of capital also supports fixed income investing. In short, yield is back. For 2026, investors have a range of fixed income opportunities that can be approached from a multi-sector perspective or by using specialists in areas such as securitized, short duration, or emerging market debt. We also see enormous opportunity in private credit strategies, less in direct lending but very much in asset-backed finance (benefitting from real world collateral) and emerging market private credit.

Client-centric asset management: Evolving to meet investor needs

I’m fortunate enough to meet investors all over the world, from the most sophisticated sovereign wealth funds, insurers, pension funds, and family offices to some of the 60 million end clients who entrust us with their money. What is clear through all of these interactions is that serving our clients well is a partnership. Gone are the days of simply having a set of products on the shelf for sale. Client-centric solutions are now reached together – with asset managers having to ask and understand exactly what is needed before offering investment ideas.

Solutions mean providing the right investment expertise, in the right product type, at the right price, with the right education, and that fit in portfolios in the right way. That is why our brand is represented by the ampersand symbol (&); it reflects the commitment needed to working together with clients.

For us, this has meant continuing to offer access to our successful long-standing investment teams – and launching products to provide that access in different ways, such as through exchange-traded funds. It has also meant bringing in teams and forming new partnerships with clients where we have identified evolving needs. This has included alternative investments as well as tokenized investing using blockchain technology. We have also developed products with a charitable-giving component, including one supporting the American Cancer Society, while our Janus Henderson Foundation continues to contribute to worthy causes.

We firmly believe that to be successful in meeting the needs of clients in 2026 and beyond, it is important to be one step ahead. While some asset management companies are more tentative, we believe in transformation. Close to 15% of our offering is new and growing, we continue to reshape our technology, and we actively strengthen our teams by promoting and incentivizing excellence. We invest by looking forward rather than looking back. It is this approach that we believe will help deliver on the needs of clients as we help them position for a brighter future, together.

Sources and definitions

¹Source: UBS, at 31 October 2025.

Exchange traded fund: A security that tracks an index, sector, commodity, or pool of assets (such as an index fund). ETFs trade like an equity on a stock exchange and experience price changes as the underlying assets move up and down in price. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than actively-managed funds.

Tariff: A tax or duty imposed by a government on goods imported from other countries.

Volatility: The rate and extent at which the price of a portfolio, security, or index, moves up and down. If the price swings up and down with large movements, it has high volatility. If the price moves more slowly and to a lesser extent, it has lower volatility. The higher the volatility, the higher the risk of the investment.

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