Summary
- Midstream guidance for 2026 so far reflects expectations for mid-single-digit percentage EBITDA growth despite macro uncertainty and weaker oil prices.
- Natural gas-focused companies are driving the higher end of growth expectations, supported by significant investment backlogs related to LNG export capacity and power demand, including for data centers.
- Long-term outlooks reinforce a mid-single-digit EBITDA growth rate, supporting sustainable dividend growth and share repurchases.
Midstream is unique from the rest of energy in being able to provide EBITDA guidance for the year ahead or multi-year periods without depending on specific commodity prices. Companies provide services for fees under long-term contracts, which results in stable and predictable cash flows. Even with weaker oil prices relative to a year ago, companies are largely expecting to grow EBITDA by mid-single-digit percentages for the year. Learn more below about 2026 EBITDA guidance for companies with forecasts so far and multi-year outlooks.
Examining 2026 EBITDA Expectations So Far
Full-year financial guidance helps frame midstream’s growth profile and builds confidence in the sector’s ability to generate free cash flow to support dividend growth and opportunistic buybacks (read more). Midstream companies are generally expected to provide guidance alongside 4Q25 results, starting later this month, but some have already provided 2026 outlooks. Guidance so far indicates that companies broadly expect to continue seeing moderate EBITDA growth and ongoing free cash flow generation this year. This is particularly important with oil prices in the high $50s per barrel. Midstream tends to be somewhat insulated from weaker commodity prices by its fee-based business model.
Sunoco (SUN) stands out, with by far the most significant year-over-year growth due to acquisitions made in 2025. SUN’s projected 60+% EBITDA growth largely reflects its $9.1 billion acquisition of Parkland Corporation, which closed towards the end of last year, and the acquisition of European terminal operator TanQuid, which is expected to close this quarter.
Keyera (KEY CN) is purchasing Plains All American’s (PAA/PAGP) Canadian NGL assets for $5.15 billion. However, its 7.5% EBITDA growth guidance does not yet include the purchase. KEY expects to release updated pro-forma figures once the transaction closes this quarter.
Natural gas-focused names in midstream generally have stronger growth outlooks, driven by high-return investment opportunities related to the massive buildout of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity (read more) and growing power demand from utilities and data centers (read more). TC Energy (TRP CN), DT Midstream (DTM), and Kinder Morgan (KMI) are relevant examples, with KMI highlighting strong natural gas market fundamentals in its 2026 outlook (read more).
Long-Term Outlooks Point to Mid-Single-Digit Growth
While most midstream companies provide detailed year-ahead guidance, a select group also offers multi-year outlooks for adjusted EBITDA growth. For some companies, year-over-year EBITDA growth towards the end of this decade may look noticeably different from what is expected for 2026. Midstream EBITDA growth can be lumpy as new projects start up and begin generating cash flows, so companies will often reference compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in their long-term outlooks. While acknowledging that growth may not be linear, long-term targets help frame midstream’s organic growth profile over time.
In the U.S., Williams (WMB) expects a long-term adjusted EBITDA growth rate of 5-7%, and DTM also targets 5-7% adjusted EBITDA growth. HESM has guided to 5% annualized adjusted EBITDA growth through 2028 from 2026 levels. WMB is expected to refresh its long-term guidance in a strategic update alongside earnings in early February.
The Canadian midstream companies typically provide multi-year outlooks. TC Energy has guided to a CAGR of 5-7% for comparable EBITDA from 2025 to 2028. In its 3Q25 earnings update, Enbridge (ENB CN) projected annual adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 5% post-2026.
Keyera has guided to a 7-8% CAGR for fee-based adjusted EBITDA for 2024 to 2027 (excludes marketing), though long-term figures will be updated alongside 2026 guidance once KEY completes its purchase of PAA’s Canadian NGL assets. Pembina (PPL CN), another Canadian midstream name that usually offers multi-year guidance, is expected to issue its long-term EBITDA growth guidance for the post-2026 timeframe this quarter. For context, Canadian names represent 28.2% of the Alerian Midstream Energy Select Index (AMEI) by weighting as of January 7.
Bottom Line
Based on 2026 guidance so far, energy infrastructure companies remain well-positioned to continue growing EBITDA by mid-single-digit percentages, supporting ongoing dividend growth and buybacks. For a deeper look into the macro landscape, dividend expectations, and more, read our full 2026 midstream outlook here.
For the latest updates on the energy infrastructure space as well as a look ahead, don’t miss our next webcast, “What’s in the Pipeline for MLPs/Midstream in 2026?” on Wednesday, January 14, 2026 at 2 pm ET. Follow the link here to register.
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AMEI is the underlying index for the Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR) and the ALPS Alerian Energy Infrastructure Portfolio (ALEFX).
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Originally published on ETF Trends
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