Key Takeaways
-
Q4 earnings for big banks were marked by robust bottom-line performance despite some top-line misses
-
CEOs appear confident as the earnings season kicks off according to our latest LERI reading
-
Peak earnings season begins next week and runs until February 27
Big Banks Q4 Recap: Profits Up, Guidance Mixed
The "Big Six" US banks (JPM, BAC, C, WFC, MS, GS) delivered robust Q4 2025 performance on the bottom-line with half (C, WFC, GS) missing on the top-line due to mostly one-time charges. Bright spots included a resurgence in investment banking and strong loan demand, despite navigating a complex environment of falling interest rates and significant restructuring charges. Net Interest Income was expected to be a big headwind this quarter, but all with the exception of WFC handily beat expectations and provided positive guidance.
While most firms handily beat EPS estimates, market reactions were largely muted or negative as investors grappled with cautious 2026 guidance (JPM), rising operational costs related to AI investments, and political uncertainty surrounding proposed credit card fee caps and Federal Reserve independence. Bank of America emerged as a standout with a 12% profit surge driven by record net interest income1, while JPMorgan2 and Citigroup3 managed one-time "cleanup" costs, such as the Apple Card transition and the final exit from Russia, to signal a cleaner path forward for the coming year.
Overall, 7% of S&P 500 companies have reported results at this point. The blended EPS growth rate dipped slightly to 8.2% after the latest batch of results (and forward revisions), down from 8.3% in the week prior. Revenue growth expectations rose to 7.8% from 7.7% in the week prior. Thus far 79% of S&P 500® companies have surpassed expectations on the bottom-line, above the five and ten year averages. Positive revenue surprises are also on track to surpass the 10 year average, with 67% of companies surpassing estimates on the top-line, but slightly missing the 5-year average of 70%.4
This coming week we’ll get Q4 results from 35 S&P 500 companies, and 577 companies in our global universe of 11,000 equities.
CEOs Signaling Confidence in 2026
After rising to its highest level in four years during the last quarter of 2024, the Late Earnings Report Index, our proprietary measure of CEO uncertainty, has now recorded five consecutive quarterly readings below the historical benchmark as companies prepare to report their Q4 results. In fact, at a reading of 46 for the Q4 earnings season, CEOs are the most confident they’ve ever been as this is the lowest reading on record.
The LERI tracks outlier earnings date changes among publicly traded companies with market capitalizations of $250M and higher. The LERI has a baseline reading of 100, and anything above that indicates that companies are feeling uncertain about their current and short-term prospects. A LERI reading under 100 suggests that companies feel they have a pretty good handle on the near-term.
The official pre-peak season LERI reading for Q4 earnings (reports in Q1) stands at 46, the lowest Q4 LERI ever recorded. This is well below the baseline reading, suggesting when companies announced their earnings dates they were feeling more certain about economic conditions. As of January 14, there were 31 late outliers and 62 early outliers.
Source: Wall Street Horizon
On Deck This Week
This week is a shortened one for Wall Street with the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday, Jan 19. In the remaining four trading days we will get earnings releases from 35 S&P 500 companies and 577 companies in our global universe of 11,000 equities. Big names to watch include Netflix today, and Intel on Thursday. Peak season will not begin until the week of January 26.
Source: Wall Street Horizon
Q4 2025 Earnings Wave
The peak weeks of the Q4 earnings season are expected to fall between January 26 - February 27, with each week expected to see over 1,000 reports. Currently, February 26 is predicted to be the most active day with 854 companies anticipated to report. Thus far, only 44% of companies have confirmed their earnings date (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names). The remaining dates are estimated based on historical reporting data.
Source: Wall Street Horizon
1 Bank of America Reports 4Q25 Results, January 14, 2026, https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net
2 JPMorgan Chase Reports 4Q25 Results, January 13, 2026, https://www.jpmorganchase.com
3 Citigroup Reports 4Q25 Results, January 14, 2026, https://www.citigroup.com
2 FactSet Earnings Insight, John Butters, January 9, 2026, https://advantage.factset.com
4 FactSet Earnings Insight, John Butters, January 16, 2026, https://advantage.factset.com
Copyright © 2026 Wall Street Horizon, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy, distribute, sell or modify this document without Wall Street Horizon's prior written consent. This information is provided for information purposes only. Neither TMX Group Limited nor any of its affiliated companies guarantees the completeness of the information contained in this publication, and we are not responsible for any errors or omissions in or your use of, or reliance on, the information. This publication is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment, financial or other advice and should not be relied upon for such advice. The information provided is not an invitation to purchase securities, including any listed on Toronto Stock Exchange and/or TSX Venture Exchange. TMX Group and its affiliated companies do not endorse or recommend any securities referenced in this publication. This publication shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor may there be any sale of any securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. TMX, the TMX design, TMX Group, Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX, and TSX Venture Exchange are the trademarks of TSX Inc. and are used under license. Wall Street Horizon is the trademark of Wall Street Horizon, Inc. All other trademarks used in this publication are the property of their respective owners.
A message from Advisor Perspectives and VettaFi: Discover something new! Click here to register for our upcoming webcasts.
© Wall Street Horizon
Read more commentaries by Wall Street Horizon
