The performance of digital assets in recent months, especially bitcoin, has been testing investor conviction in both the category’s near-term growth potential as well as bitcoin’s standing as a gold-like store of value and a key character in the debasement trade story.
As of mid-February, Bitcoin is down some 22% in 2026, extending its losses to about 45% from its October 2025 highs. It’s a sharp slide that has created a lot of heartburn.
ETF investors have now pulled over $4.1 billion in net assets from crypto asset ETFs year-to-date, with spot bitcoin ETFs leading the outflows. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), for example, had an impressive asset haul in 2025, taking in net creations of $24.9 billion, but it’s now bled about $580 million in the first six weeks of 2026.
When will this so-called crypto winter be over? That’s the question many are asking. (Reuters’ Peter Devlin and I connected on this theme this week – you can see the video of that conversation here: https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW621317022026RP1/ )
Recent research and commentary across the asset management industry point to interesting data and macro conditions that may impact short-term price performance and longer-term narratives.
All About Fundamentals
To quote Samir Kerbage, CIO of Hashdex, the near-term heartburn we’ve been feeling as crypto investors shouldn’t be seen as anything but that: short-term discomfort.
“Nothing has changed about bitcoin’s long-term investment case: scarce supply, exponential demand growth, and an increasingly favorable macro backdrop,” he recently said in a note.
“Short-term movements in commodity prices—including bitcoin—need to be analyzed by flows, not fundamentals,” he said. “Fundamentals drive long-term value. Flows drive short-term prices. Confusing the two leads to frustration.”
His call has been consistently to avoid emotional selling and focus instead on rebalancing portfolio allocations as prices drop.
“While headlines focus on price drawdowns, something else is happening in the background,” Kerbage noted. “Wealth managers continue building their long-term allocations. These buyers aren’t chasing momentum. They’re building positions for the next decade.”
Hashdex is behind the Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI) and one of the pioneers in market-cap weighted crypto strategies with the Hashdex Nasdaq CME Crypto Index US ETF (NCIQ).
Macro Matters
At the macro level, decelerating U.S. economic growth while monetary policy remains restrictive “in real terms” in the face of inflation trends point to easing – not tightening – ahead, according to CoinShares’ latest market views.
“For Bitcoin, this macro mix matters,” the firm said. “Slower growth and a sustained disinflation trend reduce the risk of further hikes and increase the probability that real yields drift lower over time. Historically, Bitcoin has responded positively to easing liquidity conditions and falling real rates.”
“That [macro]dynamic may help establish a floor under Bitcoin prices,” CoinShares said, while calling out the real near-term pressure selling may continue to put on prices. Selling may not be “fully exhausted” and ETF flows “support caution.”
Another supportive data point for a possible bottom? Coinshares tracks the cost to mine bitcoin, and that cash cost of around $74,600 is sitting below bitcoin prices, currently testing $68,000. At these levels, mining can be impacted, putting scarcity of supply in focus.
CoinShares is behind some of the funds bucking the asset outflows trend. The firm’s spot bitcoin strategy, the CoinShares Bitcoin ETF(BRRR), has picked up about $28 million in net new money in 2026. CoinShares is also behind basket-type approaches like the CoinShares Altcoins ETF (DIME) and the crypto equity fund CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) – a part of the digital asset category that has been resilient relative to the coins.
Divergence Can Be Good
On a similar note, in late January the team at Bitwise called out a “tension in crypto markets that has historically signaled a bear-market bottom.”
Among the diverging data points, Bitwise highlighted that sentiment seemed to be getting increasingly bearish at the same time transaction volumes were soaring. The firm also noted that crypto equities were feeling pressure while revenues were on pace to grow at a 3x rate of any other sector.
“That’s the kind of divergence you get at the bottom of bear markets, when sentiment is down but fundamentals are up,” the firm said in its quarterly report. “The last time we had such high-contrast data was Q1 2023—after which crypto prices soared for the next two years.”
Despite recent outflows amid weak price performance, recent insights into advisor allocations to crypto are another supportive factor underpinning the digital assets category. The recently released eighth annual “Bitwise/VettaFi 2026 Benchmark Survey of Financial Advisor Attitudes Toward Crypto Assets” showed that about a third of advisors are currently allocating to crypto – more than ever before – and that allocation was expected to grow. Of particular interest to advisors are broader crypto index strategies as well as crypto equities as they look to broaden their digital asset playbook.
To quote Bitwise CIO MattHougan, “Here’s one statistic that shocked me: 99% of advisors that owned crypto in 2025 plan to increase or maintain their exposure. People have wondered what advisors would do if crypto hit a patch of volatility. We have our answer: They’re planning to buy more.”
Bitwise is behind a number of crypto ETFs including single spot crypto assets, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), the Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ).
Innovation in the crypto index category is ongoing. ProShares just launched this month the CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF (KRYP), offering access to 20 cryptocurrencies in one basket. (I’ll be talking to the team at ProShares this Thursday, Feb.19, about this strategy. Check it out.)
Bears Out There?
It’s interesting to note that despite this ongoing price rut, it’s been surprisingly challenging to find a lot of crypto bears among large asset managers.
Caution remains a big theme, and for good reason. Some lingering doubts persist on issues like the intrinsic value of bitcoin, the fundamental argument of scarcity, and whether it is really a store of value. All understandable when convictions and narratives get tested in a market slide.
But prevailing price outlooks are calling for a retest of bitcoin at $100,000 and beyond. The bulls are persistent. Time will tell.
For a list of crypto ETFs, check out our ETF Screener Tool.
Originally published on ETF Trends
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