The Case for Acting Now in International Deep Value

After years of U.S. equity dominance, conditions were shifting coming into 2026. Earnings growth outside the U.S. had begun to converge, wide valuation gaps narrowed modestly, and investor interest in international equities was rebuilding. While the Iran war injected uncertainty and temporarily dampened enthusiasm for non‑U.S. stocks, the underlying setup remains intact. Developed non‑U.S. equities still trade at approximately 25-50% discounts to U.S. stocks across various valuation ratios as of 3/31/2026, 1 and the U.S. dollar remains near generational highs—conditions that historically have created fertile ground for international value leadership once risk appetite stabilizes.

That improving backdrop was already beginning to show up in investor behavior prior to the conflict. According to BofA Global Investment Strategy, capital had been flowing into international equities at a record pace, with the four‑week moving average of inflows peaking at roughly $65 billion as of late February. While the outcome of the Iran conflict is unknowable and could alter near‑term fundamentals—particularly through an adverse oil shock, to which non‑U.S. markets may be more sensitive than the U.S.—we believe non‑U.S. equities (particularly value stocks) enter this period with a larger valuation cushion to absorb negative surprises relative to U.S. markets that continue to price in far more favorable outcomes.

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Not All Value Is Created Equal: Why Deep Value and Quality Matter Today

While in our view international equities appear cheap relative to the U.S., we believe deep value 2 is by far the most attractive segment, trading today at a substantially wider discount than normal.

For investors seeking to capitalize on this move, the question is not whether to add international exposure, but how. Value strategies built on simplistic and largely backward-looking metrics carry risks: low growth and value traps. GMO's seeks to overcome these challenges by employing three core principles:

  1. Rebuilding the Financials
    Reported accounting increasingly fails to capture economic reality in a world dominated by intangible investment and aggressive buybacks. GMO constructs proprietary financial statements to better reflect true profitability and capital allocation.
  2. Considering Growth and Quality
    GMO is willing to pay a premium for profitable growth, strong balance sheets, and what we view as high‑quality businesses when valuations make sense. The discipline is valuation, not avoiding good companies.
  3. Focusing on Where Value is Most Mispriced
    Historically, across most market environments, deep value stocks have outperformed other value segments, including "shallow" value stocks (which comprise the 20–50% percentile of cheapest stocks). Today, deep value is unusually inexpensive relative to the broader market (the MSCI World ex‑U.S. universe), including other value cohorts.