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China: When Atlas Shrugs, Markets Shiver
by Gene Frieda of PIMCO, 8/21/17

The use of credit to fuel growth in China is weakening, a trend that has begun to depress demand for imports. Given China’s seminal role as an engine of global growth, the ripple effects will weigh on growth prospects for the countries most exposed to Chinese demand, including those in Asia and Latin America.

The Coming Financial Volatility
by Gene Frieda of PIMCO, 8/3/17

Bond investors are from Mars, and central bankers are from Venus – or so suggests the bond market’s negative reaction to signals that the exceptional monetary policy accommodation of the last decade is winding down. Risk-asset markets, however, are ignoring the red flags that the bond markets are waving. Are they right?

European Periphery: Unsafe at Any Speed?
by Gene Frieda of PIMCO, 7/28/17

Five years ago this week, Mario Draghi’s landmark “whatever it takes” speech turned the tide of the euro crisis, the president effectively clarifying the European Central Bank’s role as a conditional lender of last resort to eurozone sovereign borrowers. 

Emerging Markets: Commodity Oddities
by Gene Frieda of PIMCO, 6/21/17

Why falling commodity prices may not upend the EM rally.

Whiplash: On Value, Growth, and Ignoring the Fundamentals
by Neil Constable, Rick Friedman of GMO, 6/19/17

After a decade of lagging relative returns, value equities delivered impressive performance in 2016, outperforming growth stocks by 10% in the US.

America Is Great. Home Country Bias Ain’t.
by Rick Friedman of GMO, 5/18/17

Investors have a tendency to prefer home cooking when it comes to their stock portfolios. In the latest GMO Asset Allocation Insights, Rick Friedman writes that US-based investors are paying steep prices for domestic equities. but straying from their home market presents more attractive prices.

A Less ‘Impulsive’ China: Bracing for Lower Growth
by Gene Frieda of PIMCO, 5/3/17

By focusing so intensely on U.S. political developments, investors risk missing a silent shift in what has arguably been the strongest driver of global reflation in the last five years:...

For Whom the Bond Tolls: Low Rate Beneficiaries in a Rising Rate Environment
by Neil Constable, Rick Friedman of GMO, 4/17/17

Sluggish growth and aggressive central bank actions following the Global Financial Crisis pushed interest rates down to unprecedented levels, even negative outside the US, for longer than many would have expected.

Market Reaction to a Government Shutdown
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 4/6/17

In our update last month, we noted that the federal government could shut down on April 29 for lack of Congressional funding, a development that might have market consequences.

Will Trump Budget Lead to a Government Shutdown?
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 3/17/17

Earlier this week, President Trump issued a proposed government budget for FY2018 calling for the largest reduction in domestic program spending since the aftermath of World War II.

ACA Replacement and Market Reaction
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 3/8/17

Earlier this week, the Republicans issued their plan to replace the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). As the Republican plan became public, I joined the CNBC Nightly Business Report to discuss the plan and how the markets are likely to react.

Emerging Markets: Value Trumps Headlines
by Rick Friedman of GMO, 3/6/17

Some investors are swearing off emerging markets in the age of President Trump. That’s a mistake, says Rick Friedman, a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team. To these bears, “the double whammy of stimulative US fiscal policies coupled with possible protectionist barriers, makes emerging investments less attractive,” Friedman writes in a new piece “Emerging Markets: Value Trumps Headlines.” 

The Paradox of Chinese Drift
by Gene Frieda of PIMCO, 1/18/17

While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.

Preparing for Lower Tax
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 11/30/16

President-elect Trump and the Republican-led Congress have said that one of their top priorities is the passage of tax reform in 2017.

What Do the U.S. Elections Mean for Emerging Markets?
by Gene Frieda of PIMCO, 11/15/16

For much of 2016, a unique alignment of push and pull factors has driven strong performance in emerging markets (EM). The election of Republican Donald Trump and Republican majorities in the U.S. Congress on 8 November, however, represents a pivot point.

Can Trump implement his policies (and a word on DOL)
by Andrew H. Friedman of The Washington Update, 11/11/16

The bottom line is this: If overturning the DOL rule is a high priority of the new administration, it will happen one way or another. On the other hand, if taking action is far down the list of priorities, it is possible the new rule could take effect before repeal procedures are finalized.

Election Day and the Markets
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 10/20/16

A number of weeks ago – before the release of the Access Hollywood tape that threw Donald Trump’s campaign into turmoil – we predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election.

Election Prediction
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 10/6/16

With five weeks to go, we believe that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. Clinton will carry the Democrats to a Senate majority, but her administration will face a Republican House.

Government Funding Deadline Approaches amid Election Turmoil
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 8/30/16
As the election rhetoric rages on, Congress returns from its summer recess facing a pre-election deadline. Funding authorization for the federal government expires on September 30. Thus, Congress must pass legislation to fund the government by that date to avoid a shutdown on October 1.

Nationalism, Technology, and the Olympics
by George Friedman of Mauldin Economics, 8/9/16
The Olympics are now driven by nationalism, ideology, technology, and commerce. All are legitimate, but their impact on the athletes is startling.

The Nominees Come into Greater Focus
by Andrew Friedman of The Washington Update, 4/29/16
The unanimity of result in the “Acela” state primaries brings the presidential nominations into greater focus.

Final DOL Fiduciary Rule
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 4/13/16
Last week, the Department of Labor issued much-anticipated final rules that impose a fiduciary duty on financial advisors to the extent they recommend investments for their clients’ IRA accounts. These final rules represent a significant improvement over the proposed rules DOL issued last year, although some fundamental concerns remain to be worked out.

Preparing for Rising Medical Costs in Retirement - 2016
by Andrew Friedman, Jeff Bush of Eaton Vance, 4/8/16
The Affordable Care Act (commonly known as the “ACA” or “Obamacare”) has had a significant effect on retiree health care costs and retirement planning, and those effects are likely only to increase in the years ahead. People nearing or in retirement need to understand the extent to which their medical expenses are likely to increase, and steps they can take now to help ensure they will be able to afford medical care after they retire.

Trump’s Ascendancy Explained
by Andrew Friedman of The Washington Update, 3/2/16
Like other pundits, we thought Donald Trump could not win the Republican nomination for president. But we also have said for many months that, if Trump is still going strong on March 1 (Super Tuesday), then the calculus will be much different. We are now at that juncture, and it indeed appears it will be difficult to derail Trump’s quest.

Iowa
by Andrew Friedman of The Washington Update, 2/3/16
In last month's white paper, The Metrics and Dynamics Underlying the 2016 Election, we said that a lack of ground organization might ultimately trip up Donald Trump's campaign. The results in Iowa reflected that deficiency. Trump generates large crowds and great excitement when he flies in to speak. But when he departs he leaves behind relatively few volunteers knocking on doors - and little guidance as to which doors are worthy of a knock. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio developed ground organizations and predictive voter data greatly superior to Trump's.

Russia’s Strategy
by George Friedman of Mauldin Economics, 12/30/15
Two things are necessary to understand a nation’s strategy. The first is to view the world through the eyes of that nation… to know what it hopes for and fears. The second is to understand that the nation’s leader is far from a free agent.

Government Funding and Tax Extenders Legislation Affects Investors
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 12/17/15
After weeks of negotiations, Congress reached agreement on a bipartisan bill to fund the government through September 2016. Following are provisions of particular interest to investors.

Government Funding Deadline
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 12/11/15
Congress has agreed to fund the government for another five days – through December 16 - to give it time to work out longer term appropriations legislation. The sides are furiously negotiating that appropriations bill, but progress has been slow. The sticking points mostly involve what policy “riders” should be attached to the final legislation. Most of these riders are not directly related to government funding.

Ryan Takes Speaker’s Chair As One Deadline Remains
by Andrew Friedman of The Washington Update, 11/2/15
Last week was an uncharacteristically busy one in Washington. The White House and Congress – led by outgoing Speaker Boehner – reached an agreement on aggregate government spending through 2017. The agreement includes a corresponding increase in the nation’s debt limit, eliminating talk of a government default during the election season. With the budget deal passed, Boehner departed, leaving the Speaker’s chair to Paul Ryan.

Another Government Shutdown?
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 9/3/15
Congress returns from recess next week facing a month-end deadline to fund government operations for the next fiscal year. I’m concerned we could be looking at a reprise of 2013.

A Framework for Handicapping the Presidential Candidates
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 8/12/15
Last week, a total of seventeen Republican presidential candidates engaged in the first debates of the nascent presidential campaign. We are not here to pick winners and losers at this very early stage. (We do predict, though, that Donald Trump will be but a memory when the convention rolls around next summer – unless he chooses to run as an Independent, in which case he likely will cost the Republicans the election.) Instead, my colleague Jeff Bush and I want to provide a framework for evaluating the candidates going forward.

Obamacare Upheld Again: Consequences for Business Owners and Investors
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 7/1/15
Last week the Supreme Court ruled that all qualifying Americans are entitled to receive subsidies to purchase health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, regardless of where in the country they live.

Wake Me Up When September Ends
by Andrew Friedman of The Washington Update, 5/14/15
In my legislative update early this year, I noted that ongoing acrimony between Congressional Republicans and the Obama White House likely precludes agreement on any broad new legislative initiatives this year. Instead, Congress and the White House are likely to reach agreement only in the face of “forcing events” – deadlines that compel action to ward off a draconian result.

Obama Comments on IRA Fiduciary Rules
by Andrew Friedman of The Washington Update, 3/2/15
Last week the President gave a speech in which he focused on forthcoming Labor Department rules intended to ensure that IRA holders receive investment advice unencumbered by financial advisor conflicts of interest. In conjunction with the President’s speech, the Labor Department will be re-issuing proposed rules addressing the extent to which financial advisors may receive compensation in connection with investments made by IRAs and other retirement accounts they advise. The new proposed rules should be available in the next 60-90 days.

Obama tax proposal
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 1/23/15
In conjunction with his State of the Union address, President Obama proposed new taxes on the wealthy to raise $320 billion in revenue, to be spent on new government programs to help the middle class and working families.

A Republican Congress Awaits But First the Lame Duck Session
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 11/6/14
Destiny became reality in the midterm elections as the Republicans gained a majority of the Senate and widened their lead in the House to historic proportions. The Republicans now must decide the mix of confrontation and collaboration that will define their leadership. Due to variations in beliefs and campaigning strategies, the rank-and-file members of the two chambers might see this ideal mix differently. A new update discusses the dynamics surrounding the election and enumerates the items Congress must address in the lame duck session taking place in December.

Midterm Election Update
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 6/12/14
With many of the state primaries now behind us, Im writing to update my March white paper on the midterm elections.

Obama Administration's new climate change rules
by Andrew H. Friedman of The Washington Update, 6/4/14
On Monday, the Obama Administration issued new proposed rules that would require states to reduce CO2 emissions from resident power plants. That evening, I joined CNBCs Nightly Business report to discuss the likely impact of the regulations on climate change, jobs and the economy, and the upcoming elections.

Obamacare
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 4/8/14
Last Monday marked the deadline for new sign-ups under Obamacare. On Tuesday, I appeared on CNBC to discuss the future of Obamacare and the effect it is likely have on the mid-term elections.

Congress Raises the Debt Limit: Is This the End of the Budget Battles?
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 2/18/14
Last week Congress - faced with an impending snow storm and a desire to get home for the Presidents Day holiday - hastily passed legislation permitting the federal government to continue to borrow funds through March 15, 2015. Coupled with the agreement reached last December to fund the government through September 30, 2015, this action eliminates the prospects of additional fiscal showdowns for at least the remainder of 2014.

A Budget Compromise is Reached, But Unresolved Issues Remain
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 12/12/13
The agreement reached last October to raise the nations debt ceiling established a bipartisan committee to negotiate a budget to run the federal government in 2014 and 2015. The committees primary focus was to replace the next round of across-the-board "sequestration" cuts, which otherwise would significantly reduce spending on defense and domestic programs during those years.

A Last Minute Deal Averts Default - For Awhile
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 10/21/13
With the deadline for the United States to avoid defaulting on its debt fast approaching, Congress reached another late night compromise to reopen the government and raise the nations debt limit. The deal also called for yet another bipartisan committee to try to set a budget for future government spending. Before discussing what that committee is likely to do, lets compare the predictions Ive been making since early this year against the reality of what ultimately occurred.

The Federal Government Shuts Down: Now What Happens?
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 10/1/13
Washington insanity reached new heights yesterday as Congress failed to agree on an appropriations bill to keep the federal government running, even though it had known the September 30 deadline for over six months. This inaction brings Washington dysfunction to a new high (or low). Up until now, Congress had arrived at each fiscal precipice and averted catastrophe with a compromise. Now, finally, Congress has gone over the edge.

Congress Returns from Recess to Face Fiscal Deadlines
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 9/5/13
Congress returns from its August recess facing two imminent deadlines.First, Congress has appropriated funds to keep the federal government operating only through September 30, 2013.If Congress does not appropriate additional funds during September, on October 1 the federal government will shut down.House Speaker Boehner has said he will propose short term stop gap legislation without conditions that would fund the federal government for a few more months at 2013 levels.If Congress adopts such a resolution, the funding deadline will be pushed later into 2013.

The President's Proposed Future Tax Changes and Some Questions About Past Ones
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 5/20/13
The United States government has once again hit its borrowing limit. The government is permitted to borrow through May 18, after which it can continue to operate without additional borrowing for about three months. By fall, Congress will have to raise the debt limit to prevent the United States defaulting on outstanding debt.

Congress Avoids a Government Shutdown; Up Next, the Debt Limit
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 3/25/13
Congress cleared another hurdle last week, passing a bill (a continuing resolution) to keep the federal government operating for six months past its current funding deadline of March 27.

The Sequester Cuts Take Effect: Now What Happens?
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 3/4/13
On March 1, the government spending cuts known as the "sequester" took effect without any action from Congress. Below I discuss what those cuts mean and what is likely to follow as Congress wrestles with additional deadlines. But before we get to the sequester, a number of you have asked for a understandable summary of the elements of the fiscal cliff compromise reached on New Year's Eve.

Fiscal Cliff Compromise
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 1/3/13
Happy New Year. We begin this year as we ended the last approaching another cliff. To start the year off right, I appeared yesterday on CNBC to discuss the ramifications of the fiscal cliff compromise.

Congress Debates the Fiscal Cliff: What Happens to Estate Taxes?
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 11/27/12
The estate and gift tax exemptions are scheduled to fall and the estate tax rate to rise if Congress does not address them during the current lame duck session. This update discusses what is likely to happen this month and next year as Washington develops proposals for tax reform.

The Election Ends and the Lame Duck Begins
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 11/9/12
The election. Billions of dollars spent, thousands of negative advertisements aired, scalding campaign rhetoric, a bitterly polarized electorate -- and we ended up where we started: President Obama in the White House, a Democratic-led Senate, and a Republican-led House of Representatives. Four more years of the same divided government.
Results 51–100 of 120 found.