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Winners and Losers of the Dollars Recent Ascent
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
The dollar recent rally can be attributed to a number of factors including a relatively solid U.S. economy, diverging central bank policies (the U.S. is preparing to tighten while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are easing), and long-term changes in trade flows, particularly around the energy sector. We expect most of these trends to continue, and here are three key implications of a rising dollar.
The Sell-Off Continues, But an Opportunity Appears
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
In recent weeks, investors have been contending with two trends: anxiety over a change in Fed policy and evidence of a slowdown in the global economy. While global growth is likely to remain below historic norms, it is not collapsing. This suggests that investors should be positioned for a slow growth environment, not another recession. This, in turn, implies taking some selective risk in asset classes that have become less expensive as a result of the sell-off. One example of an asset that warrants another look: U.S. high yield bonds.
Many Investors Still Fear Stocks: Good News for Markets?
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
The economy and the stock market are no longer depressed, yet the share of U.S. adults who own stocks remains at multi-year lows. Russ explains why investors havent yet fully embraced equities and what this could mean for longer-term stock market performance.
What the Scottish Referendum & Fed News Could Mean for Investors
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Last weeks stock losses were partly a reflection of investors looking ahead to the Scottish independence vote this Thursday and the Federal Reserve (Fed)s statement on Wednesday. Russ weighs in on the investing implications of these two big news events.
Three Investing Lessons from the Napa Earthquake
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Last weeks Bay Area earthquake was a stark reminder that there are risks to living in California. It also was a violent, but good, metaphor for the dangers lurking in financial markets. Russ shares three investing lessons and one busted movie myth that he took away from the Napa earthquake.
Active or Passive? How to Blend Aspects of Both
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
While the official debate between active and passive investing strategies will never truly be settled, Russ advocates embracing a simple approach that blends aspects of both, and he provides five criteria to consider as youre figuring out the right mix for you.
What Middle East Tensions Mean for Oil Prices & Equity Portfolios
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
With turmoil in the Middle East dominating headlines, many investors are wondering what the recent and growing unrest in the region means for oil prices and for equity portfolios. Russ explains why oil prices are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future and why theres a strong case for sticking with energy stocks even if oil prices dont spike.
With US Volatility on the Upswing, Take a Look at Asia
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
While the U.S. economy appears to be gaining steam, lofty stock prices and rising geopolitical risks are finally taking a toll. Russ discusses one area that still represents an opportunity: Asia, both developed and emerging.
Is it Time to Prepare for Inflation?
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Inflation has ticked up recently, leaving many investors fearing that its time to prepare portfolios for rising prices. According to Russ, while this fear isnt irrational, its too early to restructure a portfolio around a big shift in the inflation outlook. Russ explains.
Two Portfolio Moves to Consider after Second Half’s Strong Start
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Economic data showing improving U.S. growth helped the market kick off a strong start to the second half of the year. Russ believes the economic strength is likely to continue, and he shares two moves investors may want to consider to position portfolios for such an environment.
The Consumption Drag: What it Means for Investors
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
The one segment of the U.S. economy that still appears to be lagging is also the biggest: household consumption. Russ explains why slower consumer spending is likely to continue dragging down U.S. economic growth, noting three implications for investors.
Conflict in Iraq: What Rising Oil Prices Mean for the Economy & Investors
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
For much of 2014, equities advanced despite disturbing world news headlines. However, that changed last week because there is a clear link between the events in Iraq and the global economy: energy prices. Russ explains, noting two investing implications of an energy price spike.
Disturbing Headlines, Strong Equity Markets: Why the Disconnect?
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Its hard not to see some disconnect between recent disturbing world news headlines and the markets quiet advance. Russ examines why this disconnect is rational in the short term, but not necessarily in the long term, and gives three rules of thumb for how investors can potentially respond.
The Central Bank Divide: 3 Implications for Investors
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Major central banks are no longer moving in lockstep. While the Fed is pulling back, other central banks are maintaining very easy monetary policy. Russ explains three implications this new dynamic has for investors.
June Swoon Ahead? Maybe, But Not Because of Valuations
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Given the recent extraordinary performance of most equity markets, many investors are wondering whether the bull market has run its course. Russ explains why valuation alone doesn't signal an imminent correction.
Value Offers a Cushion: Why Last Years Winners Are Now Losers and Vice Versa
A trend in markets this year has been the poor performance of last years stock market winners, and the resilience of some of last years losers. Russ takes a look at whats behind this trend, specifically with retailers and emerging markets.
Despite the Grand Reversal, Stick With Stocks
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
In a reversal of 2013s performance, stocks are struggling to hold onto gains while bond yields are plunging, leaving many investors asking: How should I be positioning for the long term? Russ explains why he still advocates sticking with stocks.
Bonds Rally, But Stocks Still More Attractive Long Term
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Stocks have floundered, while bonds continue to rally. Markets are showing a sharp reversal from 2013, when stocks were up strongly while bonds struggled. We maintain our long-term preference for equities and suggest investors exercise caution before adding to positions in bonds.
Happy Birthday, Bull Market
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
March 10, 2014, could be considered the fifth birthday of the current equity bull market. Investors looked beyond mixed economic data and turmoil in the Ukraine to push stocks to further gains last week. Stocks still remain a more attractive option relative to traditional bonds and cash.
Volatility Prompts a More Cautious View Toward Emerging Markets
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
The market selloff continued last week, and emerging markets stocks are looking more uncertain in the short term. With U.S. wages under pressure, consumer-related stocks remain an unattractive option. The Federal Reserves tapering program is starting to remove a pillar of support for stocks.
Expect Higher Volatility to Persist
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Last weeks selloff can be attributed to EM turmoil, stretched valuations and mediocre earnings. Volatility is likely to move higher to levels closer to long-term averages. We suggest investors adopt overweight positions in European and Japanese stocks.
Where is inflation headed? What will it mean for investors?
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Slow economic growth and long-term headwinds should keep inflation contained. Low inflation should help support equity markets and high yield bonds, but may be a negative for gold prices. The inflation environment should also help prevent interest rates from rising too fast.
Dissecting the Rally: What Sectors Look Attractive?
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
The current rally has been fueled by investors looking for relatively "safe" areas of the market. As such, the classic defensive sectors, such as utilities, consumer staples and healthcare, have been outperforming. This trend may be changing, indicating that sectors such as energy and technology are growing more attractive.
US Economy Should be "Good Enough" for Stocks
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
The April employment report confirms that the US is on a slow-but-positive course of economic growth. This environment should be conducive to further gains in equity prices. Europe, in contrast, continues to struggle and investors should approach that region with caution.
In Treasuries, the Risks Outweigh the Rewards
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
The 1Q GDP report was mixed, but the lack of income growth remains troubling. Oil prices are likely to remain range-bound, but that should be good enough to help energy stocks. While yields could decline further in the near-term, Treasuries look quite unappealing.
Market Gains Will be Tougher to Come By
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Markets saw a return to more volatile conditions last weeka trend that is likely to continue.
The sequester is likely to contribute to an increased fiscal drag in the first half of the year.
Nevertheless, stocks have the potential for increased gains, although the road ahead will be bumpier.
Economic Backdrop Supports Stocks, Credit Sectors and Munis
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Thanks to solid earnings, some decent (if mixed) economic news and indications that the debt ceiling debate may be delayed slightly, stocks posted additional gains last week, continuing their strong start to 2013. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 1.2% to 13,649, the S&P 500 index advanced 1.0% to 1,485 and the NASDAQ composite rose 0.3% to 3,134. Bonds have remained relatively steady, with the 10-year Us treasury closing the week at a yield of 1.84%, two one-hundredths lower than the previous Friday close.
Early 2013 Looks to Feature Slow Growth and Ongoing Fiscal Drama
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Stock markets started 2013 off with a bang, as investors expressed relief over the down-to-the-wire agreement on the fiscal cliff that came on January 1. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped 3.8% to 13,435, the S&P 500 index rose 4.6% to 1,466 and the Nasdaq composite advanced 4.8% to 3,101. Although the deal reached last week was good news for the markets, Washington's fiscal soap opera is far from over.
Although the deal reached last week was good news for the markets, Washingtons fiscal soap opera is far from over.
Outlook 2013: Fiscal Cliff Remains Unresolved, but Opportunities Still Exist
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
As we look ahead to 2013, it is impossible to make any sort of forecast without first turning our attention to the still-unresolved fiscal cliff debate. We have long said that unless we were to see significant movement on the issues of tax rates and entitlement spending, the most likely outcome would be some sort of bare-bones deal. At the time of this writing, congress and the President were still negotiating, but our analysis suggests that such a bare-bones resolution remains the most probable result, even if it does not come before the January 1 deadline.
Fiscal Cliff Deadlines Draw Near
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
In addition to the seemingly never-ending focus on the fiscal cliff, markets turned their attention to last week's Federal reserve meeting and the corresponding announcement of the central bank's continuation of its bond-purchase program. Following a very brief rally after the announcement, however, stock prices fell and ended the week marginally lower. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 0.2% to 13,135, the S&P 500 index fell 0.3% to 1,413 and the NASDAQ composite dropped 0.2% to 2,971.
Watching for Cliff to Fade, Jobs to Appear
Investors are likely to remain volatile as the focus on the fiscal cliff will remain intense.
Progress on the cliff needs to happen quickly if a compromise is to be reached.
Given the sluggish nature of jobs growth, we are unlikely to see the Fed change its stance anytime soon.
Expect Economic Sluggishness to Persist
Although the economy does seem to have improved a bit in recent months compared to where it was in the second quarter, growth levels in both the United States and around the world will likely remain subpar at least through the middle of next year. The base case for the United States appears to be the economy continuing to grow at around 2% (perhaps a notch higher) over the course of 2013. This growth level would be contingent on avoiding the full force of the fiscal cliff and would be underpinned by a recovery in housing and a pickup in capital spending levels.
Stocks Are Taking a Breather from the Rally
To at least some extent, the pause in the rally we have seen over the past couple of weeks can be attributed to some profit-taking on the heels of a significant multi-month uptrend (US stocks rose close to 6% in the third quarter). It is also likely, however, that investors are coming to grips with the fact that the world continues to face some serious risks and are recognizing that not all of the world's problems can be solved by central bank action.
Stocks Should Overcome Hurdles to Continue the Bull Market
Although global economic data has been relatively weak in recent years, risk asset prices have nonetheless advanced. We would attribute this trend to the fact that weak economic growth does not, by itself, limit the potential for risk assets. In our view, the liquidity-driven reflationary policies of the world's central banks have been a more important factor for asset prices than economic growth levels have been.
Federal Reserve Actions Help the Rally to Continue
The headline news last week was the US Federal Reserve's announcement of a new round of quantitative easing in which the central bank plans to purchase $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities on a monthly basis (without a predetermined end date). The Fed also pushed back the timeframe on how long it will maintain its current zerointerest-rate policy, indicating that the current level of rates should be in effect through the middle of 2015.
Rally Should Continue, but Look for More Volatility
Despite a relatively disappointing jobs market report for August, stocks rose last week as investors focused on the European Central Banks (ECB) announcement of its longawaited plan to buy bonds in the secondary market. The ECB program represents an important step in terms of lowering volatility and providing a cushion for Europes debttroubled countries to make some longer-term improvements in their fundamentals.
Results 801–850
of 1,011 found.
