U.S. political issues have dominated the economic headlines for the past month. The failure of the Republican-led House of Representatives to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act delays consideration of tax reform and infrastructure spending.
Over the last decade, a combination of unprecedented global financial integration and unconventional monetary policy in global financial centers created new challenges for central banks in emerging markets (EM).
The world’s major economies have performed quite well in recent months despite the influence of political and policy upheaval. Brexit and the outcome of the U.S. election have yet to produce the negative outcomes some had feared.
The effort to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was an important test for Washington. Congress had elected to take up this debate first, for both procedural and symbolic reasons.
The Federal Reserve spent a good portion of last year talking tough about raising rates, only to back away at several turns when intimidated by international uncertainty.
The outlook for the U.S. economy is nearly unchanged from expectations at the start of the year. Congress will address tax cuts and infrastructure spending only after passage of an updated health care law.
Today, it seems as if there is a mysterious voice speaking to politicians all over the world, urging them to build.
The economic setting within the United States as the new year commences is largely constructive. Data received in the latter weeks of 2016 were encouraging, and there seems to be an improving economic sentiment.
The first significant U.S. economic release of the new year was a solid one. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that 156,000 new jobs had been created in December.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its final monetary policy gathering of 2016, it will look back on a year of inactivity and look forward to a year that could very well be an active one.
The U.S. bond market has retreated since the election. Long-term yields have risen by almost 40 basis points. It appears that the 30-year-old bull market in bonds is really over.
Needless to say, the surprise victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election has changed the economic outlook on many fronts.
A mistake many in my profession have made in the past year has been underestimating the difference between overall economic performance and its translation to the fortunes of constituents. This was at the heart of the Brexit vote last June and was the driving force behind yesterday’s U.S. outcome.
At the three-quarter pole, the global economy is muddling through a disappointing 2016. Growth in developed and emerging markets continues, but at a pace that has fallen short of expectations.
There were concerns throughout the summer that U.S. economic conditions had weakened. Based on incoming reports, though, the weight of economic evidence remains positive.
