Following decades of investment and cost reduction, electricity from renewable energy should be cheaper than most existing fossil- and nuclear-fueled electricity within the next three-to-five years. We believe selectively investing in operators with scale and cost advantages in this sector should be rewarding given the increasing demand for clean energy.
Thus far the market has shrugged off the recent rise in Covid cases, but the situation remains fluid. In our view, the best strategy is to invest in companies that are able to grow during this time of stress, either organically or by increasing market share as weaker competitors fall by the wayside.
Markets rebounded during the second quarter, aided by monumental support from the Fed. We expect the economy to continue improving, but given the recent wave of Covid cases we also expect some bumps along the way.
While we appear to have averted the worst pandemic outcomes so far, a resurgence in recently reopened states shows that we are not yet out of the woods. In our view, the economy will not fully recover until there is a vaccine or a reliable treatment.
In the era of social distancing, technology has become even more integrated into our personal and professional lives. We believe this trend will persist even after the pandemic passes, and we expect it will particularly benefit firms that support remote working arrangements and eCommerce, two areas where we anticipate accelerating adoption and sustained growth.
Rarely has market performance and sentiment changed so quickly than what has been observed in the first quarter of 2020. The start of the year was promising, with the S&P 500 climbing above 5% through the middle of February...
According to John Sheehan, the recent selloff in Investment Grade fixed income was exacerbated by technical factors. In his view, regulatory changes implemented after the 2008 crisis removed a critical shock absorbing mechanism that caused spreads to spike.
As we have written several times over the last 10 years, inflation has been kept down by the twin forces of globalization and technology (particularly digital technology). These forces are not going away, and in fact, digital technology is becoming increasingly pervasive throughout the economy, dramatically increasing efficiency and lowering costs in industry after industry. We do not see this trend abating.
2019 proved to be a very strong year for almost all financial assets, as equities and bonds rallied in tandem. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) was compelled to play defense against a weaker global economy (particularly in Europe) and continued uncertainty related to the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
2019 was a very good year for investors. Surprisingly, both offensive and defensive sectors did well, which is a marked about-face compared with 2018. We believe this is mostly due to a central bank shift to policy easing, especially in the U.S., coupled with a relatively steady economy.
The venture capital industry has created a robust pipeline of new public companies, but in our view discipline is the key to finding the best opportunities.
The fixed income market benefited in the third quarter as both global growth fears and the trade dispute continued to drive uncertainty in financial markets. With Europe remaining in an economic rut and China showing signs of slowing from the protracted trade conflict, investors sought the safety of U.S. Treasuries, pushing up prices and reducing yields.
Looking at the beginning and ending levels for equities and fixed income during the third quarter, one might erroneously conclude that it was another summer snoozefest. However, there was volatility during the quarter as the equity markets shrugged off a sloppy August awash in second quarter earnings disappointments and staged a solid comeback rally through September.
During the third quarter, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500), posted a modest 1.70% gain, while the U.S. economy enjoyed a continuation of the recovery begun in 2009. Both achievements were remarkable...
In our experience, family-owned private firms and small-to-medium sized public companies are most likely to borrow responsibly and prioritize bondholders ahead of other investors.
According to John Sheehan, accommodative Fed policy and favorable market technicals drove the investment grade credit market’s strong start to 2019.
In our view, the specific market dynamics that influence a company's sales growth prospects have a greater impact on equity returns than the overall direction of the economy.
Fixed income markets will be hard pressed for an encore performance of the second quarter. Risk assets of all flavors rallied in conjunction with Treasury yields falling – whether this is causal or simply concurrent remains to be seen.
The financial press is replete with stories about what possible calamity awaits if the Federal Reserve (the Fed) does not cut the fed funds rate soon. Services that track the odds of a cut (at this writing) are calling with near certainty for one in July.
During the second quarter, the stock market continued to rebound from last year’s fourth quarter swoon. This reflected the recognition that neither the trade war nor Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy was about to torpedo the long, slow recovery from the 2008 housing debacle.
Seizing on the success the equity market had in forcing Federal Reserve (“Fed”) chairman Powell’s hand in January 2019, the bond market decided to take its own swing at dictating Fed policy.
Last year’s fourth quarter selloff was largely triggered by fears that the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) had overshot the mark with its December rate hike, and that elevated borrowing rates would cause a recession. The Fed’s subsequent pivot back to accommodation and calming suasion was very well-received by investors in the first quarter, as risk assets such as equities and high yield bonds snapped back nicely.
After suffering a tumultuous fourth quarter last year, the stock market rebounded nicely in the first quarter of 2019. Fears of an economic slowdown, escalating trade wars and monetary tightening gave way to optimism over continued economic expansion, low unemployment, a trade deal with China...
2018 marked the end of an era for fixed income investors. The combined tailwinds of quantitative easing and an accommodative Fed policy that defined the past decade were replaced by rising rates and increased market volatility. The path forward for fixed income in 2019 is less certain than it has been at any time in recent memory.
During this presentation, Eddy Vataru, lead portfolio manager of the Osterweis Total Return Fund (OSTRX), will share his current economic outlook and provide practical insights into developing an investment grade strategy that is flexible enough to handle today’s new realities. Eddy will explain how to combine duration management, sector allocation, and security selection to respond to a wide range of market conditions as well as the risks that need to be considered. Finally, he will discuss how this type of strategy fits into client accounts.
The fourth quarter of 2018 saw U.S. equities decline materially, with especially steep falls in December. During the fourth quarter the equity market as measured by the S&P 500 generated a total return of -13.5%, bringing full year S&P returns to -4.4%. While disappointing, these results need to be seen in the context of a broader and much more severe downturn in global equity markets.
The markets have not been kind to investors lately. There were precious few bright spots in the recent quarter, and it seems there was nowhere to hide, except cash. Our instincts, however, tell us that cash is not a long-term solution.
The past quarter has had its fair share of market moving events, including another Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, a flattening yield curve, geo-political events and potential tariff wars. As we wrote last quarter, separating the signal from the noise remains challenging, but we feel it is the key to keeping perspective.
During the second quarter the equity market as measured by the S&P 500 Index had a total return of 3.4%, bringing the year-to-date total return to 2.6%. Second quarter performance reflects the continued low-inflationary expansion of the U.S. economy and the attendant growth in corporate profits. All else being equal, we would expect these trends to persist. The question, of course, is whether “all else is equal.”
Written in 1606, Shakespeare’s words are just as relevant today. Tweets and eye-catching headlines dominate the news cycle and many conversations, but when you parse them for impactful content, you realize it’s mostly just white noise.
During the first quarter of 2018, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, had a total return of minus 0.8%. Despite the roughly flat performance for the quarter, volatility spiked to levels not seen in several years.
2017 was a year characterized by low volatility, a flattening yield curve and narrowing corporate bond spreads. The economy grew modestly and the Federal Reserve (the Fed) began to pull back its monetary accommodation.
During the fourth quarter, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (the S&P 500), rose another 6.64%, propelling its full year 2017 total return to 21.83%. This reflects the continued low inflationary economic expansion, rising corporate profits and a very clear pro-business agenda in Washington.
In sum, while there are certainly signs of excessive risk-taking in some areas, we feel that they are not systemic risks such as we saw in 2008. A healthy tailwind to corporate profit growth aided by the recent corporate tax rate cuts means that we will not likely see signs of economic weakness for a few years.
During the third quarter, the economy continued its slow, low inflationary expansion and the equity market continued to gain ground. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by an estimated 2.5%, and inflation hovered around 2.0%.
In a nutshell, we believe that the slow growth, low inflation trajectory will continue a while longer and, as a result, the Fed can maintain a very measured pace unwinding its unprecedented monetary ease.
“It is a Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma: but Perhaps There is a Key” - Winston Churchill
“Not see the forest for the trees” is an idiom derived from British English that describes someone who is so focused on the minutiae that they miss the larger picture.
During the first quarter of 2017, the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) enjoyed a 6.07% total return. The gains reflect (1) the steady, persistent, non-inflationary economic recovery that has characterized the post-2008 period and (2) investor enthusiasm for President Trump’s pro-business, pro-growth policies.
Since the election of Donald Trump as our next President and the Republicans’ win of both the House and Senate, much has changed in regards to our economic and investment outlooks.
Investors would have done well in 2016 to heed the words of Heraclitus, paraphrased: “Expect the unexpected.” Brexit and the U.S. election results were two glaring examples of the unexpected becoming reality.
We still believe our economy is likely to remain in a slow growth and low interest rate environment for some time. If rates do indeed get pushed lower by the relentless search for “safe-haven” yields, then other markets, such as high yield bonds, may follow. Since shorter duration, high yield bonds currently offer meaningfully higher yields than Treasuries, a further boost caused by a rally in Treasuries accompanied by flat or even tighter spreads could have a further positive impact on total returns in high yield bonds. Given the possibility for higher market volatility going into the election and beyond, we are keeping our defensive, shorter-duration bias and maintaining ample liquidity. Hopefully we can take advantage of bouts of market weakness to acquire both convertible and high yield bonds at attractive yields.
We are now seven years into both an economic recovery and a bull market. Because the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and the subsequent economic recovery were unlike any other since the Great Depression, it makes sense to look back and see from whence we came and to look forward and try to see whether current trends can be sustained.
