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Results 651–700
of 1,033 found.
Whose QE Was it, Anyway?
by Carmen Reinhart of Project Syndicate,
Years before the 2008 financial crisis, foreign central banks’ ownership of US Treasuries began to catch up with – and then overtake – the Federal Reserve’s share. Indeed, tighter liquidity conditions and increased volatility in financial markets are the byproduct of the reversal in this long cycle of foreign purchases.
No Brexit
Among the multiple existential challenges facing the European Union this year – refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal – one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote in June's referendum to leave the EU.
Closing Developing Countries’ Capital Drain
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
Developing countries are bracing for a major slowdown this year. And what is important to bear in mind is that the slowdown in China and the deep recessions in the Russian Federation and Brazil only explain part of the broad falloff in growth.
Central Banking Goes Negative
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. Indeed, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis.
The Case for Surge Funding
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
Epidemiologists know that spending a large amount of money up front can be far more effective than spending the same amount over several years. The same approach must be applied to the migrant crisis, where large investments are needed to avert an epidemic of fear, hatred, and radicalization.
Putin is No Ally Against ISIS
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
The leaders of the US and the EU are making a grievous error in thinking that President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a potential ally in the fight against the Islamic State. Putin’s aim is to foster the hollowing out – and eventual disintegration – of the EU, and he may succeed if the West continues to ignore reality.
What’s Holding Back the World Economy?
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
The dominant policies pursued by developed countries during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing – have offered little support for household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse.
The Global Economy’s New Abnormal
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
Since the beginning of the year, the world economy has faced a new bout of severe financial market volatility, marked by sharply falling prices for equities and other risky assets. A variety of factors are at work – and will remain so throughout 2016 and beyond.
The Great Escape from China
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
It might seem odd that a country running a $600 billion trade surplus in 2015 should be worried about currency weakness. But a combination of factors, including slowing economic growth and a gradual relaxation of restrictions on investing abroad, has unleashed a torrent of capital outflows.
The End of the New Normal?
Just when the notion that Western economies are settling into a “new normal” of low growth gained mainstream acceptance, doubts about its continued relevance have begun to emerge. Instead, the world may be headed toward an economic and financial crossroads, with the direction taken depending on key policy decisions.
In Search of Growth Strategies
by Michael Spence of Project Syndicate,
Restoring growth to the global economy will require the removal of obstacles to investment, efforts to fix dysfunctional labor markets, and measures to counteract rising inequality. But, with few exceptions, such comprehensive growth strategies have been missing.
The Return of the Currency Crash
by Carmen Reinhart of Project Syndicate,
Excluding the mayhem associated with the global financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009, currency crashes were few and far between from 2004 to 2014. But recent developments suggest that the dearth of currency crashes during that decade may be remembered as the exception that proves the rule.
China’s Bumpy New Normal
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
Too often, the debate about China’s economy has been dominated by naive proposals for supply-side reform and criticism of the demand-side measures adopted after the 2008 global financial crisis. But, while those measures were far from perfect, they were far better than nothing – a lesson that remains relevant today.
False Alarm on China
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
The prospect of an economic meltdown in China seems to be rattling global financial markets at the start of 2016. Yet such fears are overblown, pumped up by a growing misalignment between China’s encouraging progress on structural adjustment in its real economy and disappointing performance on market-based financial-sector reforms.
Economists on the Refugee Path
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
Under today’s haphazard and archaic asylum rules, refugees must take enormous risks to reach safety, and the costs and benefits of helping them are distributed capriciously. Economists can help spur reform by testing which international rules and institutions are needed to improve an inefficient and often inhumane system.
Extreme Weather and Global Growth
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Until recently, the usual thinking among macroeconomists has been that short-term weather fluctuations don’t matter much for economic activity. But recent economic research, bolstered by an exceptionally strong El Niño, has prompted reconsideration of this view.
The Chinese Economy’s Great Wall
The renminbi's recent decline, which has thrown Chinese stock markets into turmoil and drove the government to suspend trading twice last week, highlights a major challenge facing the country: how to balance its domestic and international economic obligations. The authorities' answer will have a major impact on the global economy.
The Europe Question in 2016
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
At the cusp of the new year, we face a world in which geopolitical and geo-economic risks – in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia – are multiplying. Yet it is Europe that may turn out to be the ground zero of geopolitics in the coming 12 months.
A Year of Sovereign Defaults?
by Carmen Reinhart of Project Syndicate,
Like so many other features of the global economy, debt accumulation and default tends to occur in cycles, with one- and two-decade lulls in defaults typically followed by a new wave of defaults. As 2016 begins, there are clear signs of such a wave on the horizon.
How to Fight Jihadi Terrorism
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
The Islamic State’s leaders know that their days in Iraq and Syria are numbered, which is why they are transferring their forces to Libya and stepping up attacks in the West. As 2016 gets underway, the most important imperative faced by the West is to disarm the trap ISIS has set, by resisting the siren song of fear.
Puerto Rico’s Debt Trap
by Simon Johnson of Project Syndicate,
The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico – the largest United States “territory” – is broke, and a human calamity is unfolding there. Unless a constructive course of political action is found in 2016, Puerto Rican migration to the 50 states will rival the scale of the 1930s Dust Bowl exodus.
Why Big Oil Should Kill Itself
Oil prices are likely to remain low, making it harder for large Western companies to compete with national producers in countries like Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Unless these companies self-liquidate, activist shareholders or corporate raiders could do it for them.
The Perils of Fed Gradualism
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
Although the Fed's recent interest-rate hike is fundamentally a positive step, it is not enough. In fact, the Fed's commitment to gradualism in normalizing interest rates could set the stage for another devastating financial crisis.
Argentina’s Economic Big Bang
Last week, newly elected Argentine President Mauricio Macri's government initiated a bold plan to revitalize a bruised and beleaguered economy. The plan's outcome matters not just for Argentina, but also for nearby countries, where leaders are watching closely for clues about how to deal with their economies' own woes.
The Fed’s Risk to Emerging Economies
by Michael Spence of Project Syndicate,
The US Federal Reserve has finally, after almost a decade of steadfast inaction, set off down the path of interest-rate normalization. But other central banks' reluctance to follow the Fed’s lead implies a coming period of monetary-policy divergence, with uncertain consequences for the global economy.
Oil Prices and Global Growth
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Oil prices were not as consequential for global growth in 2015 as seemed likely at the start of the year, and strong reserve positions and relatively conservative macroeconomic policies have enabled most major producers to avoid falling into crisis. But next year could be different, and not in a good way – especially for producers.
When Inequality Kills
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
This week, Angus Deaton will deservedly receive the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics “for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare.” Soon after the award was announced in October, Deaton published some startling research with Ann Case – findings that are at least as newsworthy as the Nobel ceremony.
The Great Policy Divergence
Over the next few weeks, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, while the European Central Bank doubles down on monetary stimulus. Although both central banks are pursuing legitimate domestic agendas, there are few mechanisms to manage the international repercussions of this policy disparity.
Europe’s Barbarians Inside the Gate
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
For Europe, solidarity begins at home. That means supporting aggregate demand and pro-growth reforms to ensure a more resilient recovery of jobs and incomes – and thereby beating back the populists and nationalists currently gaining ground throughout the continent.
China’s Macro Disconnect
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
China has been highly successful in transforming the industrial structure of its economy from manufacturing to services, but it has made far less progress in boosting private consumption. The country now has no choice but to address the causes of households' high precautionary saving and low discretionary spending.
Crowdfunding or Crowdphishing?
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
After deliberating for more than three years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has issued final rules on crowdfunding. Unfortunately, the new regulatory framework still falls far short of what’s needed to boost online funding platforms worldwide.
America’s Education Bubble
If not handled carefully, the pursuit of an important social goal can sometimes have serious economic and financial consequences. America’s effort to expand access to student loans – a fundamentally good initiative, aimed at enabling more people to pursue higher education – may turn out to be one such case.
The Fed’s Communication Breakdown
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Nothing describes the US Federal Reserve’s current communication policy better than the old saying that a camel is a horse designed by committee. Indeed, the Fed’s communication strategy is a mess, and cleaning it up is far more important than the exact timing of its decision to exit near-zero interest rates.
Europe’s Politics of Dystopia
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
The recent victory of the conservative Law and Justice party in Poland confirms a recent trend in Europe: the rise of illiberal state capitalism, led by populist right-wing authoritarians. Failure to act decisively now will lead to the eventual failure of the EU and the rise of dystopian nationalist regimes.
The Wrong War for Central Banking
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
Fixated on inflation targeting in a world without inflation, central banks have lost their way. With benchmark interest rates stuck at the dreaded zero bound, monetary policy has been transformed from an agent of price stability into an engine of financial instability.
Governments’ Self-Disruption Challenge
One of the most difficult challenges facing Western governments today is to enable and channel the transformative – and self-empowering – forces of technological innovation. They will not succeed unless they become more open to creative destruction, allowing not only tools and procedures, but also mindsets, to be upgraded.
China is Not Collapsing
One question has dominated the IMF’s annual meeting this year in Peru: Will China’s economic downturn trigger a new financial crisis just as the world is putting the last one to bed? But the assumption underlying that question – that China is now the global economy’s weakest link – is highly suspect.
The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets
by Carmen Reinhart of Project Syndicate,
As central bankers and finance ministers gather for the IMF’s annual meetings in Lima, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. Some of those symptoms, like slowing growth, are obvious and quantifiable; others, however, are dangerous partly because they are difficult to discern.
The French Exception?
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
A healthy French economy would do wonders to help lift the eurozone out of its malaise and could provide an example to countries everywhere of how inclusive capitalism can work. But that assumes that the government will embrace the structural reforms that France’s economy so desperately needs.
The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
With the US on the way to achieving energy independence, there is a risk that America and its Western allies will consider the Middle East less strategically important than they did in the past. Wishful thinking should not cloud policy judgment: a burning Middle East can destabilize the world in many ways.
The Trans-Pacific Free-Trade Charade
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
As negotiators and ministers from the US and 11 other Pacific Rim countries meet in Atlanta in an effort to finalize the details of the sweeping new Trans-Pacific Partnership, some sober analysis is warranted. The biggest regional trade and investment agreement in history is not what it seems.
The Sino-American Codependency Trap
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
Trapped in the dynamic of codependency, the US-China relationship has become fraught with friction and finger pointing. Indeed, the just-concluded summit between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping did little to dispel the possibility of a painful rupture in bilateral ties.
Rebuilding the Asylum System
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
European leaders emerged from yet another summit this week, having made only modest progress towards definitively addressing a refugee crisis that has caused enormous human suffering and shaken the EU to its core. The time for partial measures is long past; a comprehensive plan is needed.
Fraud, Fools, and Financial Markets
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
Adam Smith famously wrote of the “invisible hand,” by which individuals’ pursuit of self-interest in free, competitive markets advances the interest of society as a whole. But, because we can be manipulated, deceived, or even just passively tempted, free markets also persuade us to buy things that are good neither for us nor for society.
The Age of Bobby Fischer
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
The new Hollywood movie “Pawn Sacrifice” depicts the Cold War match between the tormented chess prodigy and Russian world champion Boris Spassky. It also makes one wonder whether a creative genius like Fischer, deeply troubled yet supremely functional at the chessboard, would be able to exist in today’s unforgiving online world.
Fed Up with the Fed
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
Every August, central bankers and financiers from around the world meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year, the participants were greeted by a large group of mostly young people, who were there not so much to protest as to emphasize to the assembled policymakers that what they do affects ordinary citizens, not just financiers.
Results 651–700
of 1,033 found.
