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Results 851–900
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Five Years in Limbo
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
The US financial system may be more stable than it was five years ago, but that is a low bar it was teetering on the edge of a precipice. Those in government and the financial sector who congratulate themselves on banks return to profitability and mild regulatory improvements should focus on what still needs to be done.
Angela Merkel's Pyrrhic Victory
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
As far as Germany is concerned, the euro crisis is over a sentiment reflected in Chancellor Angela Merkels overwhelming election victory in September. In fact, the crisis has become a nightmare, inflicting tremendous suffering that could be easily avoided if the taboos that sustain it mainly Merkels were dispelled.
America's Endless Budget Battle
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Perhaps investors are becoming inured to America’s annual debt-ceiling debacle, now playing out for the third year in a row. But, as the short-term antics become more routine, the risks of long-term dysfunction become more apparent.
The Eurozone's Calm Before the Storm
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
A little more than a year ago, in the summer of 2012, the eurozone, faced with growing fears of a Greek exit and unsustainably high borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Today, that risk has diminished significantly but the factors that fueled it remain largely unaddressed.
Don't Cry for Me, Ben Bernanke
by Simon Johnson of Project Syndicate,
The Federal Reserve will decide on monetary policy for the US based primarily on US conditions. Economic policymakers elsewhere who are pleading for a postponement of US monetary tightening should understand this hard reality and prepare accordingly.
Occupy QE
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
The Occupy Wall Street movement began two years ago this month, galvanizing attention to income and wealth inequality in the US and around the world. But, if anything, economic inequality has deepened since then and, lost in the angst over inequality, is the critical role that central banks have played in exacerbating the problem.
America's Labor Market by the Numbers
Net monthly job creation in the US was up in August, while unemployment was down. But, to get a real sense of the American labor markets health, we need to look at other indicators, and what these numbers have to tell us about both the present and the future is far from reassuring.
The Best, Brightest, and Least Productive?
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
In the US, 7.4% of total compensation of employees in 2012 went to people working in the finance and insurance industries. Whether or not that percentage is too high, the real issue is that the share is even higher among the most educated and accomplished people, whose activities may be economically useless, if not harmful.
The Vultures' Victory
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
The recent decision against Argentina by a United States appeals court threatens to upend global sovereign-debt markets. Indeed, a basic principle of modern capitalism that when debtors cannot pay back creditors, a fresh start is needed has been overturned.
Autumn's Known Unknowns
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
During the height of the Iraq war, then-US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of known unknowns foreseeable risks whose realization is uncertain. Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty.
Are Emerging Markets Submerging?
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
After years of solid output gains since the 2008 financial crisis, the combined effect of decelerating long-term growth in China and a potential end to ultra-easy monetary policies in advanced countries is exposing significant fragilities in emerging markets. Is the inevitable echo crisis in these countries already upon us?
US Interest Rates Will Continue to Rise
The interest rate on ten-year US Treasury bonds has risen almost a full percentage point in the last six months, to 2.72%, implying a loss of nearly 10% in the price of the bond. And the recent rise in long-term rates is just the beginning of an increase that will punish investors who are seeking extra yield in long-term bonds.
Lehman's Morbid Legacy
As the fifth anniversary of Lehman Brothers collapse approaches, we need analyses of the previously unthinkable outcomes that have become reality with profound implications for current and future generations and that our systems of governance have yet to address properly. Four such outcomes come to mind.
The Global QE Exit Crisis
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
The global economy could be in the early stages of another crisis and, once again, the Federal Reserve is in the eye of the storm. As the Fed attempts to exit from its unprecedented policy of massive purchases of long-term assets, many high-flying emerging economies suddenly find themselves in a vise.
Europe's Fake Normal
This summers sense of economic normality in Europe is neither natural nor necessarily tenable in the long term, because it reflects temporary and potentially reversible factors. If Europe does not return to addressing its economic challenges in a more comprehensive manner, the current calm may quickly give way to renewed turmoil.
The Changing of the Monetary Guard
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
With leadership transitions at many central banks under way, many of those who were partly responsible for creating the global crisis that erupted in 2008 are departing to mixed reviews. The main question now is the extent to which those reviews influence their successors behavior.
The Federal Reserve in a Time for Doves
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
The battle is on to replace current US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and two of the leading candidates, Lawrence Summers and Janet Yellen, display a dovish bias regarding inflation. In normal times, that would be a handicap; under current conditions, it is an advantage.
Misreading Chinese Rebalancing
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
China’s economic slowdown has caused Western pundits to succumb, once again, to the “China Crash” syndrome. But, though the composition of Chinese GDP growth appears disconcerting, the rebalancing of any economy a major structural transformation in the sources of output growth can hardly be expected to occur overnight.
Trouble in Emerging-Market Paradise
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
Some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance in the coming decade. But many BRICS countries and a few other emerging markets may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating.
Bubbles Forever
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
In 2006, the largest global real-estate bubble in history imploded, and the collapse of a major worldwide stock-market bubble a year later triggered the global financial crisis. Although one might think that we have been living in a "post-bubble" world since then, talk of new bubbles keeps reappearing.
Golden Slumbers
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
From the onset of the global financial crisis, the price of gold has often been portrayed as a barometer of global economic insecurity. So, does the collapse in gold prices from a peak of $1,900 per ounce in August 2011 to under $1,250 at the beginning of July 2013 represent a vote of confidence in the global economy?
The Free-Trade Charade
The negotiations to create a free-trade area between the US and Europe, and another between the US and much of the Pacific (except for China), are not about establishing a true free-trade system. Instead, the goal is a managed trade regime managed, that is, to serve the special interests that have long dominated trade policy in the West.
Ireland and the Austerity Debate
People on both sides of the austerity debate are trying to position Ireland as the poster child for their case. Though neither side can claim victory, this tug-of-war illustrates the complex range of arguments in play and highlights why conclusive economic policy making is proving so elusive.
Breaking Bad Habits
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
At last, central banks in the US and China seem to be headed toward monetary-policy normalization. While the move will be painful for liquidity-addicted investors, nothing less can ensure that current excesses in asset and credit markets do not spawn new and dangerous distortions in the global economy.
De-Risking Revisited
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
The prices of a wide range of risky assets have been rising, despite sluggish GDP growth worldwide. This discrepancy portends a new period of asset-price volatility one that could mark the beginning of a broader de-risking cycle for financial markets.
Inflation Is Still the Lesser Evil
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
The worlds major central banks continue to express concern about inflationary spillover from their recession-fighting efforts. That is a mistake: given the political, social, and economic risks of continued slow growth, policymakers should encourage a sustained burst of moderate inflation.
The Threat to the Central-Bank Brand
For the last 30 years, Western central banks have used their "brand" to help maintain low and stable inflation: by signaling their intention to contain price pressures, they would alter expectations and behavior. But, as corporate executives know, brand management is a tricky affair, particularly when popular sentiment overshoots.
After the Gold Rush
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
The run-up in gold prices in recent years from $800 per ounce in early 2009 to above $1,900 in the fall of 2011 had all the features of a bubble. And now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating.
The American Consumer is Not Okay
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
The spin-doctors are hard at work arguing that falling unemployment, rising home values, and record stock prices mean that the American consumer the major drag on the economy in the post-crisis period is finally back. The facts say otherwise.
Austerity and Demoralization
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
Austerity, according to some of its promoters, is supposed to improve morale. But the kind of fiscal austerity that is being practiced now has the immediate effect of rendering people jobless and filling their lives with nothing but a sense of rejection and exclusion.
Europe's Lost Keynesians
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
There is no magic Keynesian bullet for the eurozones woes, despite what many commentators and much of the public seem to believe. The eurozones difficulties stem from European financial and monetary integration having gotten too far ahead of actual political, fiscal, and banking union not exactly a problem that Keynes tried to address.
Open-Access Economics
The brouhaha over Carmen Reinharts and Kenneth Rogoffs article Growth in a Time of Debt has raised troubling questions not only about the efficacy of austerity, but also about the reliability of economic analysis. If a flawed study could appear in a prestigious working-paper series, why should anyone trust economic research?
The Resistible Fall of Europe: An Interview with George Soros
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
The politics of the eurozone countries is European politics, and European politics is not serving these countries well. In an extended interview, George Soros explains why and what should be done about it.
Soros versus Sinn: The German Question
The ongoing euro crisis has been a source of increasingly heated debate worldwide. Now, George Soros and Hans-Werner Sinn, two regular Project Syndicate contributors and leading figures in the discussion, debate the cause of Europes crisis and how to overcome it.
Lives versus Profits
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
The US Supreme Court recently began deliberations in a case that will determine whether human genes may be patented. But we already know that permitting gene patents results in inefficiencies including monopoly profits and a failure to maximize the use of knowledge that impede the pace of innovation.
The Japanese Experiment
Weeks into Japans paradigm shift in economic policy, optimism that the country may end a quarter-century of economic stagnation is balanced by fears that the authorities new approach may make things worse. And, while debate naturally focuses on Japans internal maneuvers, the tipping point may lie abroad.
The Trapdoors at the Fed's Exit
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
It may be too soon to say that many risky assets have reached bubble levels, and that leverage and risk-taking in financial markets is becoming excessive. But the reality is that credit and asset/equity bubbles are likely to form in the next two years, owing to loose US monetary policy.
Long Live China's Slowdown
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
China doubters around the world have been quick to pounce on slower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of this year. But slower growth is actually good for China provided that it reflects the long-awaited shift to an economic structure that draws greater support from domestic private consumption.
The Global Growth Quest
The last few years have highlighted the declining potency of long-standing growth models. Moreover, the search for more robust growth models will take much longer and be more complicated than many recognize especially as the world economy pivots away from unfettered globalization and high levels of leverage.
Germany's Choice
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
Contrary to popular opinion in Germany and elsewhere, the euro crisis for which Germany is disproportionately responsible, owing to its dominant position is far from over. Despite the complex political and economic origins of Europes current malaise, the solution can be summed up in one word: Eurobonds.
The Promise of Abenomics
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is doing what many economists have been calling for in the US and Europe: a comprehensive program entailing monetary, fiscal, and structural policies. As many Japanese rightly sense, Abenomics, with its focus on monetary, fiscal, and structural policies, can only help the countrys recovery.
The Long Mystery of Low Interest Rates
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
As policymakers and investors continue to fret over the risks posed by todays ultra-low global interest rates, academic economists continue to debate the underlying causes. While everyone accepts that a global savings glut is at the root of the problem, no one has provided a convincing explanation of what, exactly, is driving it.
The Global Economy on the Fly
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
In a fragile global environment, has America become a beacon of hope? While the US is experiencing several positive economic trends, Europe continues to stagnate, and China will be vulnerable to a hard landing in 2014 unless its new leaders accelerate the pace of reform.
China on the Move
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
After six years of weighing the options, China is now firmly committed to implementing a new growth strategy. But it will take courage and sheer determination to tackle the biggest obstacle of all deeply entrenched local and provincial power blocs.
Austerity's Children
by Simon Johnson of Project Syndicate,
Economists typically frame fiscal adjustment as an abstract and complex goal, though the issue boils down to deciding who will bear the brunt of measures to reduce the budget deficit. In America, that distributional choice has now been made: poor children must pay.
Debt-Friendly Stimulus
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
With much of the global economy apparently trapped in a long and painful austerity-induced slump, it is time to admit that the trap is entirely of our own making. We have constructed it from unfortunate habits of thought about how to handle spiraling public debt.
Global Markets Time Factor
In recent months, the dichotomy between booming financial markets and sluggish economies (and dysfunctional politics) has loomed large. The critical element of time and who controls it could well mean the difference between an orderly global resolution of todays ongoing financial problems and a return to serious trouble.
Mexico Breaking Good?
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Mexico is enjoying a manufacturing boom that has boosted its exports to the US after a long secular decline. With China's wages soaring and rising oil prices driving up shipping costs, production in Mexico is suddenly looking much more attractive, even taking security concerns into account.
Transatlantic Trade's Transformative Potential
A "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" between the US and Europe has the potential to transform global trade and multilateral organizations to the benefit of all. But this opportunity could be squandered, owing to the short-term mindset that now encumbers the West and the multilateral organizations that it dominates.
Results 851–900
of 1,033 found.
