5 Under-the-Radar Inflation Gauges

Successful trading and investing often require staying ahead of the crowd by seeing things that others don't. Those seeking a clearer view of inflation—a fundamental driver of financial markets—have more tools at their disposal than the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge.

Lesser-known indicators and surveys can help investors and traders better understand how inflation might drive interest rates and the economy. Some don't measure inflation directly but show how consumers, bond market players, and professional forecasters see prices changing in the future. The Fed closely monitors these inflation expectations because they affect consumers' spending and saving behavior, as well as employers' compensation decisions, which in turn feed into actual prices.

Here are five under-the-radar tools that offer a deeper, more nuanced look at inflation trends.

Sticky-Price CPI

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Sticky-Price CPI sorts the components used in the headline CPI into two categories based on how quickly their prices can change: the sticky CPI and the flexible CPI.

The flexible CPI measures price changes for things like fuel, food, and jewelry. These "flexible" goods' and services' prices change more frequently because of their sensitivity to market forces that typically impact pricing—like input costs, demand, or changes in consumer preferences.

The sticky CPI measures price changes for things like rent, public transportation, motor vehicle insurance, and medical services. "Sticky" goods' and services' prices change more slowly because they're more resistant to the market forces that typically impact pricing.

Sticky prices are also far less likely to fall back to previous levels once they've risen. In fact, the sticky CPI has never fallen on a year-on-year basis. As a result, the Sticky-Price CPI may be particularly valuable because it can provide a read on how entrenched inflation has become in the economy.

A sustained rise in sticky prices can create a floor under overall inflation, potentially leading to more aggressive Fed rate hikes, higher bond yields, and weaker stock market sentiment. Conversely, increases in flexible prices that aren't matched by rises in sticky prices may indicate a more transitory inflation, which is less likely to prompt an aggressive Fed response and dramatic shifts in bond yields and market sentiment.

5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate

Every month, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes a gauge that reflects the bond market's inflation outlook for the second half of the coming decade called the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate. It's calculated from the difference in yields between regular Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) at the five- and 10-year maturities.

The 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate is often seen as a way of assessing the Fed's commitment to price stability over the longer term.

When the rate drifts higher, it may suggest bond market participants have doubts about the central bank's ability to anchor long-run inflation. This can unsettle bond markets and weaken stock market sentiment. On the other hand, a lower reading suggests the Fed's credibility is intact and inflation is not currently viewed as a serious long-term issue.

GDP price deflator

When the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data each quarter, it also releases the GDP price deflator. This inflation gauge measures the price changes of all domestically produced goods and services. It includes export prices but not import prices.

Despite its lag and domestic focus, the GDP price deflator can provide a broader view of inflation than CPI, which measures changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a narrower group of goods and services. Some companies even use the GDP price deflator to adjust contract payments because of its ability to measure the scope of inflation in the economy.

The GDP price deflator is often viewed as a gauge of the breadth of inflation. Because it captures price changes across the entire economy, it can highlight whether inflation pressures are broad-based or confined to certain areas. Broader inflationary pressures draw more attention from the Fed and markets because they potentially signal more persistent inflation.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations is a monthly survey of roughly 1,300 U.S. household heads. It provides insights into consumers' expectations for their finances, the labor market, and inflation.

Consumers' inflation expectations for the next one, three, and five years are all measured in the survey, offering insights into consumer sentiment and psychology, which shapes their economic behavior.

For example, if consumers expect prices to keep rising, they may push for higher wages to protect their purchasing power. This can lead to what economists call a "wage-price spiral," where rising wages push companies to raise prices to protect their margins, only for those price increases to fuel further wage demands, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop.

Survey of Professional Forecasters

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters is the nation's oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts. It measures professional forecasters' expectations for interest rates, economic growth, inflation, and other key economic variables.

For the third quarter of 2025, the survey included responses from 36 professional forecasters employed by banks, asset management firms, universities, ratings agencies, insurance companies, credit card companies, and more.

The survey details forecasters' expectations for the CPI over the next year and the next 10 years, offering insights into the consensus inflation outlook of professional forecasters and their data-driven models. This gauge can add a counterpoint to the inflation expectations from consumers and the bond market, which tend to be more volatile.

Bottom line

Inflation is shaped by many constantly changing forces, making it difficult for any single metric to tell the whole story. The popular CPI and PCE price indexes get headlines and may move markets, but lesser-known gauges can provide unique insights into direct price pressures and sentiment, helping investors and traders develop a more robust and well-rounded view of current conditions and how inflation may play out over time.

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Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

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