The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® plunged to its lowest level in nearly five years in April. The index fell to 86.0 this month from March's upwardly revised 93.9, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2008, and the steepest one month decline since August 2021. This month's reading was worse than the 87.7 forecast.
The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased from 134.4 in March to 133.5 in April. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased from 66.9 in March to 54.4 in April, its lowest level since October 2021. Note that a level of 80 or below for the Expectations Index historically signals a recession within the next year.
“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”
Guichard added: “High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011). Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.”
Background on the Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures the consumers attitudes and confidence in the economy, business conditions, and labor market, with higher readings indicating higher optimism. The general assumption is that when consumers are more optimistic they will spend more and stimulate economic growth. However, if consumers are pessimistic then spending will decline and the economy may slow down. The index is based on a 5 question survey, with 2 questions related to present conditions and 3 questions related to future expectations. The survey began in 1967 and was conducted every two months but changed to monthly reporting in 1977, which is where our data begins.
