Bespoke Investment Group

Obama's odds to win re-election onIntrade.comhave been steadily rising since hitting their lows in the mid-40s last September. Last week alone, the odds rose from 54% to 56.6%. We've overlaid the historical Intrade.com odds for Obama to win re-election on a chart of the S&P 500 going back to 2010. As shown, the lows in Obama's re-election odds came at the exact same time that the stock market made its low last year. Rest assured that the Obama team is watching the stock market just as closely as any poll out there as the 2012 election looms.

While his critics argue that Obama is one of the most anti-business Presidents in US history, a look at the equity market's performance since Obama was inaugurated shows a different picture. The chart below shows the performance of the DJIA during the first three years of each US President since 1900. As of last Friday, the DJIA has now risen 60% under President Obama, making him one of only five Presidents to see the Dow gain 50% or more in their first three years in office! After last Friday's rally, Obama moved narrowly ahead of Clinton.

The stock market has stabilized over the past few weeks here in the US. This has coincided with a belief that things might not be as bad as expected here in the US on the economic front. One way to highlight sentiment towards the US economy is through Intrade's contract for whether or not the US will go into a recession in 2012. As shown below, the odds have plummeted recently down to just 25.1%, which is the lowest level seen since mid-2011 before Europe really went haywire.

We ran our decile analysis on the S&P 500 to see which stock characteristics impacted performance the most in 2011. Based on our analysis, it was dividend yield that mattered the most. The three deciles of stocks with the highest dividend yields are the only ones that averaged gains in 2011.The stocks in the seven remaining deciles all averaged declines, with the three lowest yielding deciles seeing the biggest losses. If you had a conservative portfolio of high yielders, chances are you outperformed significantly. If you had an aggressive growth portfolio, chances are you underperformed.

We've been highlighting the Intrade contracts for the 2012 elections quite a bit recently, but below are two other contracts that readers may find interesting. The first chart shown is of the Intrade contract for whether or not the US will go into a recession in 2012. For the contract to pay out, US real GDP would need to be negative for two consecutive quarters. As shown, the odds of a recession in 2012 are currently at 38.2% This is down from a high near 50% that was reached in early October. Since then, economic indicator data in the US has gotten much better.

The charts below highlight the rolling six month correlations for the S&P 500 relative to oil, US Treasuries, and gold. There has been much discussion recently regarding the extreme correlations within global financial markets. In fact, the correlation between the S&P 500 and US Treasuries was recently at a record inverse extreme.In recent weeks, however, the extreme correlations between the S&P 500 and all three asset classes has eased somewhat, with the inverse correlation between the S&P 500 and gold moderating substantially.

Herman Cain has definitely surged inthe polls, and he has taken the lead in many of them. As shown below,however,people are still putting their money on Romney to win the GOP nomination for President. Over atIntrade.com, the contract for Romney to win the GOP nomination puts the odds at 69.5%, while the contract for Cain puts his odds at only 6.3%. At its peak, Cain's Intrade odds to win were just over 10%, and they havepulled backover the past few weeks. Romney's odds to win keep on creeping higher.

Here is a table highlighting the year-end 2011 S&P 500 price targets of major Wall Street strategists from Bloomberg's weekly survey. We also provide where the targets stood at the start of the year when the slate was clean. As shown, the average year-end price target is 1,383, which would be a gain of 16.2% from current levels. Five firms have increased their targets while two have lowered them. The increases were done earlier in the year when the market was still in positive territory. It will be interesting to see how much these drop now that the market has turned decidedly negative.

We have repeatedly noted in the past how even though many consider him to be a tough critic of Wall Street, President Obama has presided over one of the strongest stock market rallies in history.In fact, the only other President who saw better returns in his first two years in office was FDR.In spite of the strong stock market returns, President Obama has received little credit. Back in June wenotedthat even though he has one of the lowest approval ratings at this point in his Presidency, no US President has seen better stock market returns at this point in his Presidency.

The Drudge Report is not a financial news site, so whenever a financial news story grabs the Drudge headline, it means that the story has crossed over from just a financial news story to a mainstream news story. And when a financial news story crosses over into the mainstream media, it means that those that don't follow the market on a regular basis are suddenly following the market. This nearly all of the time occurs when the market (or economy, etc.) is going down and not up.

After the Republican Party took control of the House following the 2010 elections, the Democratic Party staged somewhat of a rebound in the polls. Over the past five months on the prediction market website Intrade.com, the odds for the Democrats to control the House and Senate after the 2012 elections steadily increased. The odds for President Obama to win re-election also trended higher. For whatever reason, however, the GOP has surged back in June. Below are historical charts of the Intrade.com contracts for the GOP to control the House, Senate, and White House following the 2012 elections.

The first chart below shows how expectations for Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth have changed over the past four months. From the end of February through the end of April, growth expectations rose from 10.7% to 14.1%. Since the end of April, however, earnings growth expectations have drifted lower and the consensus estimate currently stands at 13.3%. The peak in the Q2 earnings growth estimate coincides with the peak in the S&P 500 this year. Has the market dropped because of the drop in growth estimates, or have analysts lowered their estimates because of the market drop? We think the latter.

The "Fed Model" is a valuation model used to gauge the relative valuation between stocks and bonds. While there are several variations, in its basic form the Fed Model compares the earnings yield on the S&P 500 (inverse of P/E ratio) and the yield on long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield). When the yield on the 10-year Treasury exceeds the earnings yield of the S&P 500, stocks are considered to be overvalued relative to treasuries, and vice versa when the earnings yield exceeds the yield on the 10-year Treasury. So what is the Fed Model saying now? Equities are undervalued.

Following last week's uptick in the unemployment rate, we have heard multiple references to the fact that no US President since WWII has ever been re-elected with the unemployment rate above 7.2%. Not surprisingly, with the jobless rate now at 9.1%, President Obama's approval rating currently stands at a rather tepid 47%.

Below we highlight the most recent year-end S&P 500 price targets.Just two strategists currently have year-end targets below the actual level of the S&P 500 at the moment.Morgan Stanley is looking for a year-end S&P 500 level of 1,238, while Credit Suisse is looking for 1,275.On the bullish side, Deutsche Bank remains above any other firm with its price target of 1,550.Also, a chart of the S&P 500 along with the averageyear-end strategist price target as the year has gone on.While the market has reallytaken a downturn in recent weeks,strategists have yet to lower their targets.

We have been discussing the slowdown in economic data on both an absolute basis and relative to expectations. Within the investment community there is a debate over whether the slowdown is a temporary effect from the massive earthquake in Japan back in March, or part of a broader global economic slowdown. Ultimately only time will settle this debate, but a look at two widely watched economic indicators and how they reacted following the January 1995 Kobe earthquake shows that the recent slowdown is more likely a result of the earthquake in Japan, and therefore temporary in nature.

Everyone is following the debt ceiling story at the moment, and you can bet on whether and when Congress will approve its increase over at Intrade. While investors recognize the seriousness of the issue, Congressmen are unfortunately treating it as a political game. As we saw when Congress failed to pass TARP I, the market doesn't like political gameplay. At the moment, Intrade traders are putting the odds of a debt ceiling increase by the end of July at just 27%. Odds for an increase by the end of August are at 67%, and odds for an increase by the end of September are at 75%.

As of now, shares of LinkedIn (LNKD) are up 171% from their offering price, making it the best performing IPO on its first day of trading in the current bull market. The stock is moving around like crazy, but if it manages to close above $117.56, LNKD will maintain its spot on top of the list.

During yesterday's drop in oil and other commodities, we heard several commentators say they were puzzled over why stocks were down as commodities were plunging. While their argument seemed to be based on the assumption that lower commodity prices will benefit the consumer, have they been paying any attention at all to the markets in the last two years? Although lower commodity and energy prices will increase the amount of money that consumers have to spend on other things, the reality is that oil and stock prices have been positively correlated for some time now.

As if we needed another reminder of the depressed level of the US economy, a recent WSJ article noted that one out of every seven Americans are on food stamps. Breaking out the numbers by state shows some wide divergences. Mississippi, has the highest percentage of its residents on food stamps at 20.6%. The only other state where one in five residents are on food stamps is Oregon. On the low end of the spectrum, Wyoming has the smallest proportion of its residents on food stamps, 6.6%, and believe it or not there are only seven other states where less than one in ten people are on food stamps.

The OECD recently issued its annual Society at a Glance report which highlights and compares trends in income, age, and other vital statistics across countries. One interesting aspect of the report highlights trends in the age of the global population. In the charts below we compare the percentage of the entire OECD population above the age of 65, as well as in BRIC and G7 countries. As shown in the top chart, 14.61% of the population within all OECD countries is currently above the age of 65 years old. Between now and 2050, this percentage of the population will increase to 25.66%.

There is always a lot of attention paid to the price changes that sectors have experienced during the current bull market, but there's not much focus on the changes in their valuations. Below we take a look at both using a scatter chart that shows the percentage change in both price and P/E ratio since March 9th, 2009. As the price of the sector rises, earnings need to rise just as much or else the P/E ratio will increase. It's common for P/E ratios to expand during bull markets, but a sector becomes more attractive if it can keep its valuation down as its price increases.

Here at Bespoke, we have a huge database that has every US earnings report going back to 2001. For each earnings report, we have how earnings and revenues came in versus expectations, any guidance that was issued, and in-depth price action analysis. From our database, we're able to combine all of the earnings information for individual stocks to come up with macro earnings trends as well. Since 2001, there have been more than 64,000 quarterly earnings reports. Of those 63% of companies have beaten consensus analyst earnings per share estimates, while 25% have missed earnings estimates.

While traders are already eagerly awaiting this Friday's employment report, we thought we would tide you over with a look at recently released levels of unemployment by state from the Department of Labor. The states with the lowest unemployment rates are North Dakota (3.7%), Nebraska (4.3%), and South Dakota (4.8%). While some will attribute the low unemployment rates in these states to the boom in agriculture, the reality is that these states have routinely had among the lowest unemployment rates in the country throughout history.

Even though "the streak" of beating the S&P 500 for fifteen consecutive years ended in 2005, Bill Miller still commands the respect and attention of investors all over the world. Although Miller had some rough years during the financial crisis, ever since the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009, his Legg Mason Value Trust Fund (LMVTX) has outperformed the S&P 500. Since March 9th, 2009 Miller's fund is up 115% through yesterday, while the S&P 500 is up 91.2%.

While oil and stocks are positively correlated, stocks and bonds have an inverse correlation. In fact, the two asset classes haven't been this inversely correlated in at least ten years. Finally, with respect to the dollar, there is little correlation with the S&P500. The current lack of correlation between the dollar and equity prices stands in stark contrast to the credit crisis and the bull market, when the two had an extreme negative correlation. Today, equities are being driven by more than just the dollar, indicating an environment driven by fundamentals and not just asset flows.

Market Vectors has an ETF (NLR)that tracks the main uranium/nuclear stocks around the world.The ETF is down 16%. Theholdings in NLRcome from France, Canada, Japan, Australia, and the US. Below we highlight these holdings, and we includeeach stock's country of origin, weighting in the ETF, and performance overthe last week. The uranimumexploration and mining companies have been the ones gettinghit the hardest. Uranium Resources here inthe US is down the most of all the ETF's holdings at -42%. Canada's Hathor Exploration is down the second most, followed closely by Uranium One.

This piece examines 5-year credit default swap prices for Japanese sovereign debt. As shown, there has been a small increase in default risk in the days since the earthquake and tsunami hit, but default risk is still below levels it was at in May 2010 and February 2009. At the moment, it costs $95 per year to insure $10,000 worth of Japanese sovereign debt for five years. Japan remains at the low end of default risk compared to other countries around the globe. With the resilient country fighting to get back on track, investors don't appear to be worried about Japans financial problems.

Each week, Bloomberg surveys the head equity strategists at the major Wall Street firms for their year-end S&P 500 price targets. At the start of 2011, the average S&P 500 year-end price target for these strategists was 1,371. This would have resulted in a gain of 9.02%. Since the start of the year, five strategists have increased their year-end targets, Goldman Sachs , Barclays, Bank of Montreal, HSBC and UBS. These increases put the average year-end price target at 1,401, which would result in a gain of 11.40%. With a YTD gain of more than 5% already, the S&P 500 is nearly halfway there

The US stock market has been on a tear lately, but default risk for the country has remained stubbornly high. Granted, default risk for the US is very low compared to most countries, but it is currently near 1-year highs. Below is a chart highlighting US default risk using 5-year CDS (credit default swaps) price in Euros. While risk is nowhere near as high as it got during the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009, it is more than 100% higher than where it was in late 2009.

The current Intrade odds for the Democratic Party to maintain the Presidency in 2012 stand at 62.5%. The contract for Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 last traded at 69 (or 69% odds). The odds are 50/50 for which party will control the House after the next set of elections. Odds are at 12% for the Supreme Court to rule the individual mandate unconstitutional by October 31st, 2011.

President Obama has quietly maintained his position as one of the equity market?s most well loved Presidents. As the data show, the 47.6% gain in the DJIA since he took office ranks as the third best first two years for any President since the start of the 21st Century (FDR 90.5% and Coolidge 52.6%). Whether or not you give the President credit for the market?s performance will undoubtedly depend on your political views, but strictly at face value, the numbers don?t lie.

We found that compared to Q3 of 2009, 42 of the 50 states saw revenue increases in the third quarter while only eight saw declines. On the positive side, nine states saw their revenues increase by more than 10%, with Alabama leading the way. Looking at the list of states with declines, the more notable aspect of that list may be the notable names that are absent. California, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York are generally considered to be the states that have the worst finances, but of those four only New Jersey saw a decline in revenues during the quarter.

Large swings in bullish sentiment once again highlight the 'drive by' mentality and lack of conviction that investors have in the current market environment. When the headlines are positive, they get bullish, but the slightest hint of any negative news sends investors scurrying for cover.

In a recent address at the home of Google executive Marissa Meyer, President Obama implied that there has been a lack of innovation in the American economy in recent years. As Bespoke illustrates in a chart provided, however, the number of U.S. patent applications granted has increased steadily each year since 2000, with the exception of 2005. In fact, many have argued that it has never been cheaper for someone with an idea to spread and develop it.

The Intrade odds for the Republican Party to win the House of Representatives have been well above 50 percent for some time now (currently at 75 percent), but the Democratic Party has been favored to retain the Senate throughout the Intrade contract's entire history. Today, however, that contract fell below 50 percent for the first time, and the odds are currently at 47.5 percent for the Democratic Party to keep a Senate majority.

Although U.S. oil inventories declined by 475,000 barrels in the latest week, the decline was less than the forecasted decline of 700,000 barrels. As shown in charts provided, oil inventories in the U.S. are currently right near their highest levels of the year relative to the historical average. Since oil stockpiles peaked earlier in the year, inventories have declined by 2 percent. In an average year, however, oil stockpiles are down 6 percent from their seasonal high by this time.

Most technical analysts believe that chart patterns tend to repeat themselves. Using quantitative analysis, Bespoke went back and compared the last six months in the S&P 500 to every other six month period since 1928. They found that the stretch that most closely resembles the last six months is the period from November 1959 through May 1960. While the majority of investors still believe we will avoid the double-dip recession this time around, the 1959 to 1960 example suggests that even if we do go back into a recession (as we did then), a new bear market is not necessarily a sure thing.

A growing number of investors are calling the bond market a bubble. Bespoke presents a chart showing the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds minus the year-over-year change in the CPI. Using this method, the adjusted 1.62 percent yield on the 10-year bond is still below its historical average of 2.66 percent, but nowhere near historical extremes. While one could make the argument that Treasury bonds are unattractive due to increased supply and their low yields relative to other periods in the past, it is hard to argue that their current valuation fits the criteria for a bubble.

There has been a lot of talk this week about how 'the great bond bubble' is about to crash and that equities look attractive compared to them. One data point that commentators have been citing is that the Dow's dividend yield is now greater than the 10-year Treasury bond yield. We've heard some say that this is the first time this has happened in decades, but in actuality, the Dow's yield got much higher than the 10-year bond yield as recently as late 2008 and early 2009. Bespoke presents a chart Dow yields minus 10-year Treasury bond yields from 1920 to the present.

For those that haven't checked the odds for the November elections over on Intrade.com lately, the odds for Republicans to win control of the House have jumped all the way up to 61 percent. At the start of 2009, the odds for Republicans to win were at just 15 percent. From mid-March to mid-June, odds for control of the House hovered around the 50/50 mark. Since mid-June, however, traders have been betting big on Republican control. At this point, we have to assume that the market is 'pricing in' a Republican victory.

There's been lots of movement on the Intrade contracts for where LeBron James will end up, on the eve of his announcement. As Bespoke shows in charts provided, the Cleveland contract has dropped significantly while the New York Knicks contract has spiked this evening. News that he'll be making the announcement from Greenwich, Connecticut instead of somewhere in Ohio seems to be what shifted the odds.

Remember back in April when the yield on the ten-year was approaching 4 percent and everyone seemed to be worried that the era of low rates was over? That didn't last long. Less than three months later, the ten-year yield is not only lower, but it's also on pace to close today at a 52-week low of 3.14 percent Since April's peak in interest rates, there has been no shortage of concerns popping up regarding Europe and the strength of the US economy.

With gold trading at a record high, we wanted to highlight the shifting correlation between it and the US Dollar. Normally, when gold rallies, the dollar declines and vice versa. However, as the chart below illustrates, gold and the dollar have become increasingly unlinked. In the chart, positive readings close to one indicate a strong positive correlation, while readings closer to negative one indicate a strong inverse correlation. The current level of -0.18 indicates a very weak inverse correlation.

Traders on Intrade are currently putting the odds of BP's Tony Hayward to depart as CEO by the end of the year at 59 percent. How about Goldman Sachs? The last trade on the contract for CEO Lloyd Blankfein to depart by the end of the year puts the odds at 20 percent. Odds for Goldman to pay a fine of at least $25 million to the SEC by the end of the year are at 80 percent. The November elections are being heavily traded on the site. Odds for the Republicans to take back the House of Representatives in November are at 47 percent.

Bespoke provides tables comparing debt levels in G7 and emerging market countries. The average level of public debt to GDP among G7 countries is 94 percent. Two countries, Japan and Italy, have levels of debt that are in excess of 100 percent of GDP. Compared to the other six countries on the list, the U.S. debt level of 52.9 percent seems downright thrifty. Meanwhile, the average level of debt in emerging market countries is just 37.4 percent. If concerns over debt are the major issue behind the correction, emerging market countries should thus rebound the strongest in any recovery.

The average stock in the S&P 500 is now down 4.26 percent since the index peaked on April 23rd. But at least based on dividends, the high-yield stocks have outperformed their low or no-yield brethren by quite a wide margin during the recent pullback. When breaking up the S&P 500 into deciles based on dividend yield, the deciles of stocks with the highest yields are barely down, while stocks with low or no yields are underperforming. Investors typically flock to safer names during market declines, and it seems to be no different this time around.

A couple of months ago, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was rising towards 4 percent, and commentators everywhere were declaring an end to the 'bond market bubble,' which would send interest rates sharply higher. So what happened? Thanks to the problems in Greece and the rest of Europe, US treasuries have been a magnet for investors looking to protect their cash. At a current yield of 3.62 percent, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is currently trading at a two-month low, and breaking below support.

For those wondering what the odds are for Lloyd Blankfein to depart as chief executive of Goldman Sachs, Intrade.com has you covered. The last trade on the Intrade contract for Blankfein to depart by December 31, 2010 was 25 (25 percent odds). The current bid/ask is 27/28, so the odds are slightly higher than one in four at this point. The contract started out at a higher price and has drifted lower over the past few days to its current level.

Intrade.com has contracts on whether the Republicans or Democrats will control the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2010 midterm elections. While the Democrats currently hold a large majority in the House, the odds for them retaining that majority after 2010 have been declining over the past year or so. As of today, the Republicans are now favored to win a majority in the House after the 2010 elections. The current odds based on Intrade's contract prices are 50.1 percent for a Republican majority and 45 percent for a Democratic majority.

With total revenues of $153 billion and spending of nearly $219 billion, the federal government spent 43 percent more than it took in this month for its record 18th straight monthly deficit. Believe it or not, this month's $65 billion shortfall was the fourth-lowest over the last 12 months. When all is said and done, the total cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program bailout is likely to reach $89 billion. When the federal government runs $65 billion in the red during its normal course of business, $89 billion to avert the collapse of the entire financial system doesn't seem so bad.

The price of oil is up sharply today, and is trading above $86. While commodity traders love the rise in oil prices, consumers aren't nearly as enthusiastic, especially ahead of the summer driving season. To them, higher prices mean more pain at the pump, and in their wallets. Indeed, while low food and energy prices continue to serve as a rebate for consumers, that rebate has been dwindling since March 2009, and could soon turn into a tax, as they were from the beginning of 2008 through the summer of that year.

Since Congress passed the health care reform bill on March 21st, we have seen numerous companies announce that they will take charges to earnings. The charges stem from one aspect of the legislation that eliminates deductions for tax-free subsidies companies receive from the government for providing prescription drug benefits to retirees. Due to the material and quantifiable impact that the bill will have on their business and financial results, the companies are required by law to disclose it. So far at least fourteen companies have announced charges totaling at least $1.6 billion.

With long-term interest rates rising and short-term interest rates contained, the rising yield curve is once again starting to receive attention. The Fed defines the yield curve as the difference in basis points between the yield on 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury bonds. High values in the yield curve are positive for the economy, while an inverted yield curve is a harbinger of weakness. The curve is currently at the high end of its historical range, and has made multiple attempts to break through the 380 bps level in the current period.

Nanotech was one of the next big things during the 2002-2007 bull market, but has faded in recent years. Stocks and ETFs related to nanotech lost investor interest, and the sector has seen a drop in news coverage. Unlike many crazes during the internet bubble, however, nanotech does serve a purpose. If the bull market continues, it will be interesting to see whether nanotech resurges.

The odds for Obamacare to become law by June 30, 2010 jumped to 60 percent on Intrade a few days ago after the president pushed for the Senate to use reconciliation to pass reform, a procedure that requires only 51 votes and cannot be filibustered. Before then, odds ranged from 30 to 35 percent.

The ETF that tracks U.S. preferred stocks has soared to bull market highs in recent days. Preferred stocks fell more than common stocks during the 2007-2009 bear market, but since March 2, 2009, the iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index ETF is up 153 percent, while the S&P 500 is up 66 percent.

Have analysts become more conservative, or will the recommended bond weighting continue to fall as the market goes up? Wall Street strategists currently recommend a 30.5 percent weighting in bonds. Before the run-up in treasury bonds during the financial crisis, the recommended bond weighting ranged between 15 and 20 percent. As bond prices rallied, strategists increased their recommended weighting. Bond prices peaked in December 2008, however, and have been drifting lower since the onset of the current bull market in stocks.

A recent IRS report provides ammunition for both sides in the debate over whether the ultra-rich should pay higher taxes. The 400 top U.S. earners accounted for 2.1 percent of all taxes paid in 2007, up from 1.2 percent in 1997. They paid an average tax rate, however, of 16.6 percent, down from 24.2 percent ten years earlier. Their average income in 2007 was $137.9 million.

Sirius XM Radio's stock broke the $1 mark for the first time since September 2008. Shares rose by 1,900% since trading for as low as five cents last February, and are up 80 percent since their low on December 22. An improving auto sector may be driving up share prices.

Bespoke Investment Group reviews historical sector weightings in the S&P 500, and says the Technology currently has its highest allocation since the internet bubble burst in 2000, at 19.2 percent. Financials rank second at 14.4 percent after falling to 8.9 percent in March 2009. Consumer Staples still weigh bigger than the Consumer Discretionary sector as they have since 2007, but Consumer Discretionary could overtake Consumer Staples once again if the bull market continues.

Bespoke Investment Group says the appearance of American model Brooklyn Decker on the cover of this year's Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue may be a good sign for investors. The S&P 500 remained positive in 13 out of 16 years an American appeared on the cover since 1978 and posted average returns of 10.6 percent. It stayed positive in 12 out of 16 years an American did not appear on the cover, and posted average returns of 8.2 percent.

Default risk has spiked for US sovereign debt and is now significantly above its June 2009 high - but well below highs earlier in the financial crisis.

Since the beginning of the year, sovereign default risk (measured by credit default swap prices) has risen for Portugal, France, Iceland, German and Australia. It's even risen for the US - by a greater percentage than for either Dubai or Greece.

Worries about a few EU countries and the Euro currency have rattled global equity markets. Sovereign debt credit default swaps have been rising sharply for countries such as Greece and Portugal in recent days. Equity markets in Spain, Portugal, and Hungary are down more than 5% today alone. They highlight the year to date performance and performance since the 1/19 peak for the major equity markets of 81 countries around the world.

Bespoke comments on the higher-than-expected GDP announcement. They note that earnings announcements so far this season have been strong and ?based on what we've seen so far in terms of guidance,

Just like the earnings beat rate this quarter, the percentage of companies raising guidance versus lowering guidance is also strong. As shown below, 12.6% of companies that have reported earnings thi

The Intrade odds for Ben Bernanke to be confirmed by the Senate for a second term have dropped from about 95% down to 80% today. This is a pretty big drop, but the money is still betting that he'l

?While his detractors will argue otherwise, based on his first year in office, Barack Obama has been a good friend to the stock market. Since 1897, the 33% return in the DJIA during his first year in

After Scott Brown's unlikely win last night for the open MA Senate seat, we checked Intrade to see which way the odds have moved for various political scenarios. After the special election, Intrad

The PEG ratio is the P/E ratio over the growth rate, and a PEG of less than one is generally considered good. In this regard, we have created "PEG" ratios for a number of countries using the P/

Of the 2,971 stocks currently in the Russell 3,000, 1,997 of them were around at the start of the 2000s. The average price change of these 1,997 stocks during the 2000s was 182%, so this shows you th

The preferred stock and high yield bond markets have done extremely well lately. The two charts below, PFF (preferred ETF) and HYG (high yield bond ETF) have both been surging since the start of Dece

Now that the VIX index is at its lowest levels since May 2008, and down nearly 80% from its record high in late 2008, there is a growing concern among some investors that there is not enough fear in t