Foresight Analytics

Final figures for the third quarter 2010 are not due until late November, but based on earnings reports and call report filings from many smaller banks, Foresight Analytics offers its advance estimates of what final 3Q 2010 real estate and business loan delinquency results will be.

Final figures for the second quarter 2010 are not due out for a few weeks (late August), but based on earnings reports and call report filings from many smaller banks, Foresight Analytics offers its advance estimates of what final 2Q 2010 real estate and business loan delinquency results will be.

This post contains advance estimates of final 1Q 2010 real estate and business loan delinquency rates from Foresight Analytics. Total mortgage delinquencies rose to a preliminary estimate of 14.0 percent during the first quarter, up from 13.2 percent in the fourth quarter 2009 and from 9.4 percent a year ago. Total construction lending delinquencies rose to an estimated 19.0 percent, up from 18.6 percent in Q4. The total commercial and industrial loan delinquency rate rose to an estimated 5.5 percent, up from 5.1 percent in Q4, and double the 2.7 percent rate in Q4 2008.

Construction loans outstanding contracted by 8.3% during the fourth quarter (vs. 3Q 2009), on par with the 8.1% decline in 3Q 2009, but faster than the 4.6% average quarterly declines in 4Q 2008 through 2Q 2009. All major construction categories we estimate are in decline, including commercial real estate. Delinquency rates for all construction and land loans rose to 18.6% during the fourth quarter, up from 17.9% during 3Q 2009. This rate is closing in on the high of 19.2% in 1Q 1992.