Muhlenkamp & Company

Geopolitical conflict involving Iran disrupted energy markets, driving oil and the dollar higher while stocks, bonds, and gold fell. Despite volatility, economic signals are mixed but stabilizing, especially in manufacturing. Muhlenkamp outperformed markets, increased cash and international exposure, while remaining cautious amid inflation, policy uncertainty, and ongoing war risks.

The economy in the 3rd quarter grew by 4.3% adjusted for inflation, the highest growth rate for the year. The inflation rate as measured by the CPI was 2.7% in November (the latest data point), in the middle of the 2.3% - 3.0% range it has been in all year.

The U.S. economy shows moderate growth and rising inflation, with manufacturing lagging and services expanding. Recession fears have faded; policy uncertainty and deficits remain concerns. AI drives market highs, gold surges, and investment focuses on healthcare, materials, and gold.

When we started gathering the economic and financial metrics we so often include in these letters, we found that for the second quarter in a row little had changed.

Significant government policy shifts, particularly in tariffs and regulatory restructuring, have created uncertainty and volatility. We continue monitoring potential risks like inflation and recession while remaining focused on identifying profitable investment opportunities amidst these changes.

Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.

Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss economic data and its influence on the federal funds target range. They also talk about the policy choices of the presidential candidates and the affect they may have on the economy and our investors’ wealth.

Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.

Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp share that although it was a quiet first quarter in economic news, the markets were not so quiet. Jeff and Ron are still watching for signs of a recession due to the inverted yield curve but also think that there is a possibility of an inflationary boom. They feel they are prepared for either scenario and give their reasons why.

I met with seniors from Duquesne University recently, all of them about your age. They are Finance Majors graduating in the spring and were looking for insights into investing, career advice and strategies for building successful careers.

Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp provide a recap of 2023 and look at the state of the economy at the start of 2024. They also explain their reason behind why they have significant portfolio holdings in certain industries.

Tony Muhlenkamp shares his notes on charitable donations and income tax deductibility.

Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp give an update on the relevant economic indicators impacting investments. They also provide their thoughts on inflation, the possibility of a recession, and a list of things “broken” by the Fed due to it raising interest rates.

Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp provide an update on the possibility of a U.S. recession, analysis of the Fed’s fight against inflation, and a report on the stock market.

Discussion about inflation and the Feds efforts to fight it, the recent bank failures, and the odds of a U.S. recession.