Sage Advisory

Global markets stood on edge as the conflict in Iran upended energy markets and muddied the outlook for the global economy. Interest rate markets repriced as market participants processed the notion that hostilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than expected.

While the equity market has its well‑known “January Effect,” credit markets also show a seasonal pattern. Looking back over nearly three decades of data, January tends to be one of the better months for corporate bond spreads.

In recent months, the cost of living has consistently polled as the top issue for American voters, with housing affordability standing out as one of the biggest pressure points.

Theoretically, the two foundational drivers of long‑run economic growth are population growth, which expands the labor force, and productivity, which determines how efficiently that labor can transform inputs into outputs.

Midterm election years have a rhythm that fixed income investors should recognize. While at first glance yields may seem unpredictable, a closer look reveals a pattern in how they behave throughout these periods.

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated rate cut in December, signaling caution about growth risks while maintaining a “wait and see” stance.

Two perspectives emerge when analyzing the state of US consumers. Sentiment surveys paint a picture of economic weakness, yet behavioral data tells a different story — spending remains in line with historical expansion trends.

The reopening of the US government and the release of delayed economic data did little to calm markets. The long-awaited September jobs report finally arrived last week, showing job gains of 119,000, surpassing expectations but accompanied by downward revisions to previous months and a rise in the unemployment rate.

Century Aluminum is considering development of the first new US aluminum smelter in nearly 50 years — a move that could revitalize the domestic industrial metals landscape.

Second quarter earnings from the big six US banks surprised to the upside, revealing a resilient core: strong trading results, stable credit quality, and a late quarter rebound in investment banking activity.

The US Census Bureau’s May retail sales report came in weaker than expected, with the headline measure — total nominal sales — down 0.9% on the month. It’s the largest drop in nearly two years and reflects broad-based softness across categories like autos, gas stations, and restaurants.

The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.

Despite the announcement of new tariffs, long-term inflation expectations—as measured by the 5y5y inflation rate—have remained stable

The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.

The current level of tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods going into China amounts to a trade embargo between the two countries.