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2016 Economic Environment in Review
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 12/22/16

This week we take a look back at some of our hits and misses of 2016. We certainly had some of both in a year that had some unusual macroeconomic drivers, including the impact of low oil prices at the beginning of the year on several sectors of the economy...

A Look Back at 2016 Hits and Missies
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 12/21/16

This week we take a look back at some of our hits and misses of 2016. We certainly had some of both in what was a difficult year to forecast the equity markets.

Can't Stocks and Bond Yields Just Get Along?
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 12/14/16

Surging bond yields have not spooked stock market investors. The latest sharp move higher in bond yields has caused stock market investors to ask the question, At what point do higher interest rates potentially begin to hurt stock prices?

Irrational Exuberance Part Two?
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 12/6/16

Twenty years ago today, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Alan Greenspan gave his now-famous “Irrational Exuberance” speech at a dinner hosted by the American Enterprise Institute.

December Game Plan
by John Canally, Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial, 12/1/16

Welcome to December. The year 2016 saw global turmoil in equity, credit, and energy markets in the initial months; a highly emotional U.S. presidential campaign and election; and a subsequent equity markets rally with various indexes at new all-time highs.

Corporate Beige Book: Better Tone, Little Election Talk
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 11/30/16

Corporate sentiment improved during the third quarter based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for third quarter 2016 earnings season.

Holiday Shopping Preview
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 11/23/16

This week we preview the holiday shopping season. Although the market’s attention has been squarely on the election for the past several months, we should not forget how important this time of year is for the U.S. economy...

The Economy in Transition
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 11/22/16

In a key speech last week (November 14 - 18, 2016), Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) testified before the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of Congress, further preparing markets for a Fed rate hike as soon...

Small Caps Up 10 Days in a Row—Too Late To Buy?
by Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial, 11/19/16

Small caps have been on fire, as the Russell 2000 has been up 10 consecutive days for the first time since March 2013.

What a Week
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 11/17/16

This week we reflect on Donald Trump’s surprising victory and the stock market reaction.

Evaluating the Economics of the President-Elect
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 11/16/16

The results of the November 8, 2016 U.S. presidential election have not changed our long-term outlook for the U.S. economy.

Market Impact of a Trump Presidency
by Team of LPL Financial, 11/10/16

The transition to a Republican presidency and Trump’s rejection of politics as usual, which drew so many voters, naturally lead to questions about his impact on the economy and markets. Today on our blog we provide a high level overview of our thoughts of the significance of a Trump presidency.

Could There Be A Big Sell-Off After The Election?
by Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial, 11/7/16

With the S&P 500 down eight consecutive days for the first time since October 2008, many are wondering what this could mean for the rest of the year.

The Chinese Yuan in Global Trade
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 11/3/16

The Chinese yuan was added to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) basket of currencies, called Special Drawing Rights (SDR), on October 1, 2016.

Halloween Special: What Might Scare Markets
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 11/1/16

It’s Halloween, so what else could we do but write about what might scare the markets?

Election Playbook
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 10/27/16

With the election fast approaching, we present our election playbook. With Election Day just 15 days away, and the three presidential debates behind us, investors want to know what the upcoming change in power in Washington might mean for their portfolios.

Energy Independence: Worth the Cost?
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 10/26/16

Both presidential candidates have discussed energy independence as a goal for their administrations, though their actual platforms speak more to their broad policy orientations than to any real specifics.

Taking Stock of Technicals and Sentiment
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 10/21/16

We take a closer look at market technicals and sentiment this week with the historically volatile second half of October upon us. Although there has been some near-term volatility and equity weakness, the longer-term technicals on equities continue to look very strong.

Is Another Black Monday Coming?
by Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial, 10/19/16

Tomorrow is the 29-year anniversary of the crash of 1987. After the dust settled, the S&P 500 fell an incredible 20.5% on Monday, October 19, 1987, for the single worst day ever for the index – earning the well-deserved nickname Black Monday.

Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Preview: Growth Returns?
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 10/12/16

We believe the earnings recession may have ended in the third quarter of 2016.

Housing Check-In
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 10/11/16

Economic data released in the next two weeks will shed light on the state of the housing market as the third quarter of 2016 ended and the fourth quarter began,

Trading Places - Movement of Goods and Opinions
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 10/5/16

As the election nears, we see how rules on international trade, and globalization as a concept, have impacted American politics.

Welcome to the Fourth Quarter
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 10/4/16

2016 is a year no one will soon forget. It was the worst start to a year ever for the S&P 500 after 28 trading days (down 10.5%), only to bounce back and actually finish positive by the end of the first quarter.

Listen to the Leaders
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 9/29/16
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), one of our Five Forecasters, provides a valuable monthly guidepost regarding where we are in the economic expansion.

Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 9/28/16
The Five Forecasters favor the continuation of the current economic expansion and bull market. The Five Forecasters are five indicators that, collectively, have historically signaled increasing fragility of the U.S. economy and a transition to the late stage of the economic cycle, with increased potential of an oncoming recession.

EM Earnings: Beginning to Emerge
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 9/22/16
By nature, emerging markets (EM) have greater risks, but they also have attractive attributes relative to developed foreign markets. For most markets, earnings have been stagnant while valuations—what investors are willing to pay for those earnings—have increased.

FOMC FAQs: Will They or Won't They?
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 9/21/16
As the sixth of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) again remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes.

Sell Now?
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 9/14/16
Should stock investors sell now? It’s been a good year for stocks—the S&P 500 has returned 5.7% this year despite the drop on Friday. But has it been too good?

August Recap
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 9/9/16
August proved to be a challenging month for high-quality fixed income]. Treasury yields rose across the maturity spectrum, with the benchmark 10-year yield ending the month at 1.58%, toward the high end of its recent range.

Dividend Bubble?
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 9/8/16
Dividend stocks have been thriving in the low interest rate environment. Dividend-paying stocks, which we define as stocks with higher dividend yields than the broad equity market, have garnered support as investors increasingly use stock dividends as a substitute for fixed income in the low interest rate environment.

Deficit? What Deficit?
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 9/1/16
The U.S. presidential election is only ten weeks away, and one key topic has been largely absent on the campaign trail in this “unusual” election year: the deficit.

A Deeper Look at the Rise in Libor
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 9/1/16
Libor has been on the rise in recent weeks and for many borrowers, the increase is almost equivalent to a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.

Corporate Beige Book: Q2 Offers Few Signs of Improvement
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 8/31/16
Corporate sentiment improved little based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for second quarter earnings season.

Is Foreign Demand Fading?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 8/26/16
Overseas investors remain a key support of domestic bond prices and have helped to drive the 10-year Treasury yield to a recent level of 1.55%.

Fiscal Policy--String Theory
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 8/25/16
Even many central bankers admit that monetary policy is exhausted, and that fiscal policy should increasingly be the focus of efforts to stimulate the economy.

What the Market Is Telling Us About the Election
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 8/24/16
Election years have historically been good for stocks, and this year has been no different, although with less volatility than we would expect during the summer of an election year.

The Price of Safety
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 8/19/16
Slow global growth and low or negative interest rate policies from major central banks make for a difficult environment for income investors.

Overseeing Poor Earnings Overseas
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 8/18/16
Macroeconomics and geopolitics are interesting to discuss, but earnings are what drive markets. We tend to forget that truism when dealing with international markets.

Capex Conundrum
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 8/17/16
Like many other categories of gross domestic product (GDP), business capital spending in the economic recovery that began in mid-2009 has lagged prior recoveries.

Has Anything Changed?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 8/11/16
A strong July employment report caused Treasury yields to spike higher, but the broader message from the bond market has not changed. Improvement in economic data will need to exhibit greater consistency to exert meaningful upside pressure to bond yields.

European Banks: Neither a Borrower Nor Lender Be
by Matthew Peterson of LPL Financial, 8/10/16
· Banks everywhere are under pressure from the low interest rate environment. · Corporate financing in Europe goes through banks, not the capital markets, making banks more important to the system. · Monetary policy in Europe has just begun to increase bank lending, which historically has resulted in higher stock prices for banks, though the full impact of negative interest rates is difficult to determine.

Earnings Update: We Were Hoping For More
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 8/9/16
Chief Financial Officer, Burt White write an overview of earnings season and discusses prospects for a second half earnings rebound.

See You in September?
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 8/3/16
As of Monday, August 1, 2016, the fed funds futures market is pricing in less than a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its next policy meeting on September 21, 2016. This assessment is the result of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on July 27, 2016, which provided no hint of a hike as soon as September, and a weaker than expected report on gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of 2016, released on Friday, July 29, 2016.

High-Yield Municipal Update
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 8/1/16
High-yield municipal bonds have benefited from broad bond market strength in 2016, but are now more subject to the path of interest rates over the remainder of the year. As we mentioned in our Midyear Outlook 2016: A Vote of Confidence publication, we expect more muted returns across the bond market, and high-yield municipal bonds may see a slowdown after a robust 8.9% total return through July 22, 2016.

Follow the Leaders
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 7/27/16
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), one of our Five Forecasters, provides a valuable monthly guidepost regarding where we are in the economic expansion. The latest reading on the LEI, based on June 2016 data, revealed that the index climbed just 0.7% since June 2015. The month-over-month change in the LEI has been negative half the time over the past year, while the year-over-year change has decelerated from a high of 6.7% in July 2014 to the 0.7% today.

Breakout
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 7/26/16
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and other major indexes have recently broken out to new highs. But this commentary is not about the breakouts in those indexes.

Midyear Outlook 2016: Believing in the Potential of the U.S. Economy
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 7/22/16
For the first half of 2016, the U.S. economy—as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP)—is on track to grow at around 2.0%. Looking out into the second half of the year, aided by a dollar tailwind, stable oil prices, steady consumer spending, record high household net worth, and a slowing, but still solid labor market, the U.S. economy may grow between 2.0% and 2.5%. But even at just over 2%, actual GDP is growing faster than potential GDP (the maximum pace the economy can grow without causing inflation), taking up slack and slowly pushing up wages and inflation.

Midyear Outlook Campaigning for More Investment
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 7/21/16
We continue to expect mid-single-digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2016, consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance. As discussed in our just released Midyear Outlook 2016: A Vote Of Confidence, we expect those modest second half gains to be derived from mid- to high-single-digit earnings growth over the second half of 2016, supported by steady U.S. economic growth and stability in oil prices and the U.S. dollar.

What's Ahead for the U.K. & Europe?
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 7/8/16
Following the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) decision to leave the European Union (EU) in a referendum held on June 23, 2016, there are still many questions regarding the future of the U.K.’s relationship with the EU and other impacts throughout Europe.

Q2 2016 Earnings Preview: Better Times Ahead?
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 7/7/16
The earnings recession will likely continue with second quarter results, which will begin with a small handful of companies reporting this week (July 5–8, 2016). The Thomson-tracked consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) is calling for a 4% year-over-year drop, which would mark the fourth consecutive quarterly decline (by FactSet’s count the streak would reach five). Perhaps the best thing to say about this streak, the longest since 2008, is that the drop will likely confirm that the 5% year-over-year decline in the first quarter of 2016 marked a trough.
Results 151–200 of 359 found.