Comparing business-cycle-related primary trends of the falling 2-year Treasury yield shows that this is the slowest business cycle since WWII. I argue the slowness of this cycle is evidence of the 6+% average pro-cyclical fiscal deficit over the last three and a half years.
Three years with five reliable recession signals, five recession scares, and no recession. Why? And what comes next. A useful framing of the economy for the last three years and why a recession isn’t imminent now.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary.
The beginning of the banking and commercial real estate crisis this year has many parallels to the start of the residential real estate crisis in 2007.
